Kremlin's 2026 Recruitment Rate Has Fallen 20% Versus 2025

The word is out in Russia: signing up to fight in Ukraine is almost certainly a one-way ticket to death. As a result, Kremlin recruiting in the first three months of 2026 is 20% lower than it was in 2025 despite a dramatic increase in the financial incentives being offered. 

Ironically, one of the reasons why recruiting of contract soldiers may be down is that the enhanced signing bonuses are putting tremendous pressure on the Russian regions bearing that cost. As a result, it may be that the regions are less enthusiastically pursuing new recruits. To make up the shortfall, the Kremlin is demanding that 2% of all university students either volunteer or be 'volunteered' by their schools. In addition, Russians with any sort of debt are being forced into joining. And if the debtor is a woman, her male relatives are targeted. This does not sound like a long term solution that the Russian people will embrace. JL

Roman Pryhodko reports in Militarnyi:

The rate of recruitment of contract soldiers into the Russian Armed Forces fell by 20% compared to 2025. In early 2026, Russia was recruiting approximately 800 soldiers per day, whereas in the first quarter of 2025, this figure was approximately 1,000–1,200 people. On average, Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers each month. This is enough to offset current losses, but not enough for a large-scale expansion of the army. (This is despite the fact that) a new record in the amount of payments for signing a contract—the average amount in his sample in March reached 1.47 million rubles, while the median was 1.55 million rubles. (But), this places increasing financial pressure on Russian regions. 

The rate of recruitment of contract soldiers into the Russian Armed Forces fell by 20% compared to 2025.

This is noted in an analysis by German researcher Janis Kluge.

According to his estimates, after a relatively stable 2024, recruitment rates began to decline, and this trend only intensified during 2025–2026. 

In particular, during certain periods, the decline amounted to about 20% compared to previous months.

In early 2026, Russia was recruiting approximately 800 soldiers per day, whereas in the first quarter of 2025, this figure was approximately 1,000–1,200 people. 

Despite this, Russian authorities continue to officially claim stable recruitment figures of 400,000–500,000 contract soldiers annually. However, independent estimates based on an analysis of budget expenditures show a more modest trend.

On average, Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers each month. This is enough to offset current losses, but not enough for a large-scale expansion of the army. 

The recruitment mechanism itself is increasingly dependent on financial incentives. High one-time payments and salaries, which have risen significantly since 2024, remain the main factor in attracting volunteers.

In particular, the federal government has doubled the signing bonus to 400,000 rubles, and the regions add their own payments, which make up the bulk of the compensation.

The analyst also notes a new record in the amount of payments for signing a contract—the average amount in his sample in March reached 1.47 million rubles, while the median was 1.55 million rubles. 

At the same time, this model places increasing financial pressure on Russian regions. On average, they spend up to 4% of their budgets on recruitment, and in some cases—up to 10%, which is effectively equivalent to spending on healthcare or education.

Kluge emphasizes that data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation allows tracking not only recruitment expenditures but also the actual activity of the regions. According to his calculations, in the first quarter of 2026, Russian regions funded the recruitment of approximately 70,500 soldiers. 

Earlier, Militarnyi reported that the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation had set a target for university rectors to recruit at least 2% of the total student body into contract military service. At the beginning of the year, the head of the ministry announced this requirement at a meeting with the leadership of the aggressor country’s largest universities.