Russia Hasn't Strength To Beat Ukraine's Pokrovsk Defense By Kremlin Deadline

Another year, another Kremlin deadline for capturing Pokrovsk. This year's deadline is the end of April, now about two weeks away. But informed observers do not believe the Russian military has the strength to overcome Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and its other units who have thwarted the Russians so far and seem able to continue to do so. 

The question for the Russians at this stage is whether fruitless attacks on well defended positions are worth the losses which seem primarily focused on Putin's need to appear strong rather than on any serious military objective. JL

Yuri Zoria reports in the Euromaidan Press:

Russia is targeting Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk for capture by April's end but does not have the strength to do so. Ukraine's defense forces are holding the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and striking Russian troop concentrations before assault groups can form, preventing the Russians from forming assault groups.  Ukraine's defenses make any Russian advances slow and costly. Moscow tried and failed to make Ukraine cede the rest of the region, using the US-pushed peace talks. (This means) Russia is unlikely to seize Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast in 2026 - but could make some tactical gains at significant cost.

Russian forces are pressing on two axes from occupied Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of Ukraine's Airborne Assault Forces reported on 16 April that Ukraine's defense forces are holding the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk and striking Russian troop concentrations before assault groups can form. Infantry fighting continues in the village of Hryshyne to the northwest.

Russia's goal in eastern Ukraine is full control of Donetsk Oblast, but Ukraine's defenses make any Russian advances slow and costly. Moscow tried and failed to make Ukraine cede the rest of the region, using the US-pushed peace talks. Earlier, ISW assessed that Russia is unlikely to seize Ukraine's Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast in 2026 — but will likely make some tactical gains at significant cost.

Russian infantry hits Hryshyne's center in daily waves

The situation in Hryshyne remains tense, the 7th Corps noted. Russian forces are pushing to advance further inside the settlement. Rifle fighting continues.

Small enemy infantry groups are operating in multiple waves per day. They are trying to infiltrate the central part of the settlement and consolidate. The 7th Corps also noted attempts to push further into the built-up areas toward the settlement's northern part.

Ukraine holds Pokrovsk's north — Russia masses in the south

Ukraine's defense forces continue to hold the enemy at the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk, the 7th Corps noted. In the city's southern part, Russian forces are trying to accumulate equipment and personnel. Their aim is to create conditions for a northward push.

The 7th Corps is detecting and destroying targets throughout Pokrovsk and areas south of the city. The corps is preventing Russia from forming strike groups, it reported.

Myrnohrad, front-wide surge, and April deadline

• Analytical project DeepState reported that Russian forces are also massing infantry and equipment at Donetsk Oblast's Myrnohrad, while also advancing on Hryshyne from the Pokrovsk direction.
• Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi noted a Russian offensive surge along almost the entire 1,200 km contact line, driven by favorable weather. The Oleksandrivske, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Lyman directions are the hottest, Syrskyi noted.
• Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned earlier that Russia was targeting Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk for capture by April's end. Russia did not have the strength to do so, Zelenskyy said.