Russia Running Out of Reserves As New Troops Deployed Less Than Loss Rate

There was a time when the Kremlin announced it was deploying new reserves to take an objective and western military experts worried if Ukraine could withstand the added pressure. Not so much anymore.

Russian forces are expected to be bolstered by 20,000 this summer, primarily for its ongoing bloodbath in Donbas. But these days, 20,000 Russians is less than two-thirds of the Kremlin's monthly losses. This suggests that the new deployment is unlikely to help achieve their unrealistic goals or change the war much - and if that is the largest force it can muster, that Russia is running short of reserves. JL

The Financial Times and The Institute for the Study of War report:

Russia is preparing to dip into its strategic reserve to add 20,000 troops to its force in southeastern Ukraine. 20,000 is below Russia's monthly losses, and may still outstrip Moscow's usable force-generation surplus, since new recruitment is no longer keeping pace with attrition and deployable reserves are limited. Russian forces have repeatedly failed to meet the Russian military command’s unrealistic deadlines. Russian forces set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026. They have not made the inroads in Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka necessary to seize the settlements by the end of April. The deployment is unlikely to significantly alter the frontline; 20,000 soldiers are notably fewer than one month’s worth of Russian casualties.
The Russian military command is likely pulling forces from the Russian strategic reserves in order to mitigate Russian forces’ continuous inability to reach the unrealistic operational objectives and deadlines.  

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Head Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told the Financial Times (FT) on April 16 that Russia is likely preparing to dip into its strategic reserve to add 20,000 fresh troops to its force grouping in southeastern Ukraine.[13] Skibitskyi stated that a GUR report indicates that Russia is aiming to capture the entire Donbas by September 2026 and that it currently has around 680,000 soldiers currently stationed in the theater. 

Skibitskyi’s statement supports Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets’ recent reports that Russian forces are deploying elements of their strategic reserve in the Oleksandrivka and Zaporizhia directions, both away from their priority effort in Donetsk Oblast.[14] Russian forces have faced several difficulties in recent months, including simultaneously increasing casualty rates and decreasing recruitment rates, that threaten the success of the Russian military command’s usual tactics of casualty-heavy, high-intensity waves of assaults and infiltration missions.[15]   

While 20,000 is below Russia's monthly losses, it may still temporarily outstrip Moscow's usable force-generation surplus, since new recruitment is no longer keeping pace with attrition and deployable reserves are limited.

Russian forces have repeatedly failed to meet the Russian military command’s unrealistic deadlines.[16] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 10 that Russian forces set a deadline to seize Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka, and Pokrovsk by the end of April 2026.[17] Russian forces have seized Pokrovsk they have not made the inroads in Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka necessary to seize the settlements by the end of April. The deployment, if true, is unlikely to significantly alter the situation on the frontline; 20,000 soldiers are notably fewer than one month’s worth of Russian casualties.