Russian Air Defenses Are "Collapsing" As Ukraine Targeting Decimates Them

Ukraine has destroyed 492 Russian air defense systems - both mobile and stationary - in the past nine months. This was not just opportunistic. It was part of a strategy to degrade Russian air defenses in order to then enable the decimation of the targets - troop concentrations, logistics, headquarters - that the air defenses were protecting. 

The success of the 2026 Ukrainian counterattacks against Russian defenses is a result, in large measure, of that quiet, systematic and relentlessly lethal strategy execution. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

That the Russians couldn't stop Ukrainian jets from lobbing GBU-39s at Donetsk airport's drone storage facility, a target 40 km inside Russian-controlled territory underscores how badly Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian air defenses in recent months.  Systematically striking Russian radars, surface-to-air missile batteries and mobile air defense systems all along the front, Ukrainian forces are “collaps[ing] the layered defensive architecture that the Russian integrated air defense doctrine depends upon. The strikes on Russian air defenses—at least 492 of them between June and early March—are part of a carefully scripted plan. Destroying air defenses faster than the Russians can replace them has the effect of “facilitating strikes on more critical targets deep within Russian territory,”

The Ukrainian air force struck a reported Russian drone storage site at the Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine on 14 April, apparently heavily damaging the site and potentially suppressing Russian drone strikes until new production can make good whatever drones the Russians lost in the strike.

That the Ukrainians targeted a Russian drone depot isn't surprising. Ukrainian forces frequently target Russian drones before they even reach the front line. There were at least two major raids on drone storage at Donetsk airport last month.

What's surprising is how the Ukrainians targeted the depot just northwest of Donetsk city, some 40 km from the front line. According to one observer, the attack involved a mix of SCALP-EG cruise missiles and GBU-39 glide bombs.

The 1,300-kg, French-made SCALP-EG, launched by the Ukrainian air force's small fleet of ex-Soviet Sukhoi Su-24 bombers, ranges hundreds of kilometers under inertial and satellite guidance. It's not terribly difficult for a missile-armed Su-24 to hit Donetsk airport from a launch point safely inside Ukrainian-controlled air space, even the Su-24 is flying low to avoid detection. 

The 130-kg, American-made GBU-39 is another matter. The satellite-guided bomb can range more than 100 km on its pop-out wings—but only when dropped from high altitude. From low altitude, the bomb may range just 40 km or so.

For the Ukrainian air force to hit Donetsk airport with GBU-39s means one of two things. Either the launching planes few high and fast as they vectored toward the airport. Or they flew low—and got close.

Either possibility points to a serious problem for Russian air defenses in the east. A plane flying at high altitude should be an easy target for enemy air defenses. By the same token, a plane flying low directly over territory the enemy controls should also be an easy target.

Ukrainian and American contractors have modified the Ukrainian air force's Soviet-made Sukhoi Su-27 and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters to carry GBU-39s. The air force's ex-European Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters are also compatible with the highly accurate bombs.

Degraded air defenses

That the Russians couldn't stop Ukrainian jets from lobbing GBU-39s at a target 40 km inside Russian-controlled territory underscores how badly Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian air defenses in recent months.

Systematically striking Russian radars, surface-to-air missile batteries and mobile air defense systems all along the 1,200-km front line of Russia’s 50-month wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are “collaps[ing] the layered defensive architecture that the Russian integrated air defense doctrine depends upon to function,” according to an in-depth investigation by Tochnyi.info. 

The strikes on Russian air defenses—at least 492 of them between June and early March—are part of a carefully scripted plan. Destroying the right air defenses faster than the Russians can replace them has the effect of “facilitating strikes on more critical targets deep within Russian territory,” Tochnyi.info explained.

The 14 April raid on Donetsk airport is just one of the operations facilitated by the wider Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian air defenses. The Russians are increasingly vulnerable to ever-deeper Ukrainian air, missile and drone strikes because they're losing air defense systems faster than they can replace them. 

One objective of the Ukrainian deep strike campaign is to suppress Russia's own campaign of deep strikes targeting Ukrainian cities. There's evidence the Ukrainian effort is working.

Just nine months ago, Russia was flinging as many as 2,000 Shahed one-way attack drones at Ukrainian cities every week. Air defenses took down 90% of the drones, but the 10% that got through inflicted heavy damage.

And there was seemingly no in sight. The trend line pointed to Russia producing potentially 7,000 Shaheds a week—a volume of drones that could’ve overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses.

But then, without many outside observers noticing, something changed. In recent months, the pace of Shahed strikes has flat-lined, according to one analysis.

Yes, the Russians still pummel Ukrainian cities with 1,500 or more Shaheds a week. But there’s no longer a noticeable trend toward more Shahed attacks. Possibly because the Ukrainians are blowing up more Russian drones on the ground.