Russian Intel Being Shaped By Ukraine's Degrading of EW, Targeting Ability

Like watching two computers playing chess against each other, Ukraine and Russia have been using their technological capabilities to gain battlefield advantage. But the one evidently emerging with an advantage is Ukraine. 

Ukraine's systematic targeting of Russian radar, air defense and other electronic warfare assets is now giving it the ability to force the Russians to make choices which are more beneficial to the Ukrainians. This has been accomplished by the early interdiction of logistics, troop movements and other operations that are slowing Russia's ability to plan. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina

The operational picture displays a slowdown in Russian gains. Russian forces captured just 133 square kilometres in March 2026 — the lowest monthly total since June 2024. The latest figures suggest deeper Ukrainian drone operations, increased attacks on the Russians, improved defensive preparations, and the diversion of Russian military attention to southern Ukraine is imposing costs on Russia’s spring offensive tempo. On the Kharkiv axis, Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range campaign against Russian radar systems. This was part of the Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian early warning and targeting capabilities. This reflects a maturation of Ukrainian operations. Ukraine is shaping the sensor and intelligence architecture that supports Russian air defence, artillery and aviation.

The ground war during the week was characterised by the familiar rhythm of attritional combat: large numbers of tactical engagements, incremental gains and losses measured in hundreds of metres, and Russia’s continued inability to translate local tactical gains into operationally significant advances.

In the Donetsk Oblast, the most significant development came from the DeepState monitoring group’s assessment on 18 April that Russian forces were solidifying positions in Kalynove as a staging point for an advance toward the logistical hub of Kostiantynivka. Russian drone crews redeployed from the Kursk Oblast operations were reported in the area. Russian forces are now able to operate drones deep enough to reach Kostiantynivka itself - a city of 67,000 pre-war residents that is an important Ukrainian logistics node. ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces made advances in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on 12 and 13 April.

On the Sumy front, Ukrainian forces pulled back to prepared lines near Myropilske as Russian forces claimed ground in three villages in the border region. Russian small-group infiltrations continued in northern Sumy Oblast, though a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger cautioned on 13 April that Russian forces “are unable to control large areas of forest” due to frequent Ukrainian counterattacks, and that a near-term seizure of Krasnopillya was “premature.” Zelenskyy warned on 17 April that Russia would likely attempt offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. This signals that Ukrainian intelligence assessments are seeing Russian ground forces assembling on multiple potential axes of advance.

The broader operational picture however displays a slowdown in Russian territorial gains. DeepState reported that Russian forces captured just 133 square kilometres in March 2026 — the lowest monthly total since June 2024. But as I noted last week that figure should not generate premature optimism. Russia has captured enormous amounts of territory since 2022 and holds approximately 20 percent of Ukraine. However, the latest figures do suggest that the combination of deeper Ukrainian drone operations and increased attacks on the Russians, improved defensive preparations, and the diversion of Russian military attention to southern Ukraine is imposing costs on Russia’s spring offensive tempo.

Source: Russia Matters.

On the Kharkiv axis of advance, ISW’s 14 April assessment noted that Ukrainian forces continued their mid-range strike campaign against Russian radar systems in Belgorod Oblast. This was part of the larger Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian early warning and targeting capabilities along the northeastern approaches. This campaign reflects a maturation of Ukrainian operational thinking. Ukraine is actively shaping the sensor and intelligence architecture that supports Russian air defence, artillery and aviation.