Three Weeks Into Spring Offensive, Russia Has Actually Lost Territory

Historically, three weeks into a major offensive, the attacking military should have gained ground as the defenders struggle to reorganize and respond. But not so for the Russian army in Ukraine.

Three weeks into their spring offensive, they have actually lost ground to the Ukrainians, who are taking advantage of Russian predictability and weakness by opportunistically advancing themselves at points along the line where the Russians are weakest. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russian spring offensive started around March 20, 2026. (But) the net amount of territory gained by Russia in that time is actually a net loss. During the first week, Russia gained. During the last week, the Russians lost territory. It is notable that three weeks into a large offensive, the Russians are losing ground. When you add that in March, the Ukrainians gained more territory than they lost even with the Russian Spring Offensive starting, overall the Russians are still losing more than they are taking. If the Russians are using their reserves and it gains them nothing, the initiative will return more and more to Ukraine. This failure (offers) echoes of Putin planning his 2022 victory parade in Kyiv

The Russian Spring Offensive Started around March 20, 2026. The Institute For The Study Of War, opted for March 21 as the exact start date, saying this was when the Russians began a concerted assault on the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast.

The net amount of territory gained by Russia in that times seems close to nil, or actually a net loss. During the first week, Russia gained about 40 square kilometres (17 square miles). During the last week, the Russians if anything lost territory. It was not much, about 1.5 square miles (1 square mile). However it is notable that three weeks into a large offensive, when one would have thought that Russian mass and manpower advantage would be telling on what we have been told are Ukrainian defenses with no soldiers, that the Russians are losing territory.

And when you add this to the fact that in March as a whole, the Ukrainians gained more territory than they lost even with the Russian Spring Offensive starting for the last 10 days or so, it is worth noting that overall the Russians are still losing more than they are taking.

I could throw up maps of the front from Deep State, but what is the point? The lines have barely shifted. To show changes you have to zero in so closely that you lose perspective about how small the territory is.

This is not the Battle of the Somme, it is something else entirely. It is four years into a war (by which time the two sides should have figured out different things about the battlefield) and the larger and supposedly more powerful side seems to have no answers and cannot move.

Zelensky even said that the Russians are taking what seems to be a major risk, and committing their strategic reserve to try and make up for their massive losses and inability to move forward. Here was a quote from one of his press conferences.

“In general, we are seeing an interesting situation: in a month we destroy as many invaders as they mobilize, but at the same time the size of their grouping in Ukraine is increasing. We believe they are expanding their force in Ukraine by bringing in personnel from the strategic reserve,”

“We believe this is a risky move for the Russians, because by doing so they are weakening their borders with other countries, and the situation there is not simple for them. Nevertheless, they have gone ahead with it,”

If he is right, this should be what Ukraine wants. The willingness to sacrifice their own people without regard has always been the Russian way in this war. If that tactic no longer works, and in throwing away reserves they prove it, it will mean that the Russians do lack an answer to Ukrainian defenses at present.

We are not yet at Mussolini’s Offensive into Greece in 1940 (which resulted in an almost immediate loss of territory by the attacker), but if the Russians are using their reserves and they gain them nothing, the initiative will return more and more to the Ukrainians. This failure was a direct result of Mussolini seeing the Greeks as he wanted them to be, not as they were. He believed that they were weak and divided, and after a few weeks of fighting he would have his victory parade in Athens. There are echoes to Putin planning his 2022 victory parade in Kyiv