Ukraine Took Russia's Best Punch. Now It's Hitting Back. Harder

As the weather warms, Ukraine's military and civilians have, this winter and spring, absorbed the worst Russia could throw at them and have not just survived, but emerged stronger. 

The barbaric attacks on energy and electricity infrastructure in the dead of an historically cold winter did not lead to calls for negotiation. And rather than waiting for another set of Russian offensives, the Ukrainians took the initiative and launched counterattacks which have resulted in Russian forces losing territory. The war is not expected to end soon, but the global narrative about Russia's failure has become the norm and the supposed 'inevitability' of a Russian win is now considered a cruel joke - mostly on the hapless Russian troops who are dying as a result of it. JL

David Ignatius reports in the Washington Post:

At the Kyiv Security Forum last week European defense chiefs shared the assessment that, as one put it, “the Ukrainians have outpaced Russia in spite of being outgunned.” Ukraine currently neutralizes 70% of Russia’s drone attacks and hopes to boost that kill rate to more than 90% by the end of this year. Ukraine maintains its edge with monthly updates of its drone and electronic warfare systems. Drones account for 92% of kills, while just 3% come from artillery. Ukrainian troops held firm against Russia’s assault on the front lines last fall, and its cities survived a terrible, frigid winter despite a Russian blitz on infrastructure. Now spring has arrived: It’s warm again, and the power is still on. Ukraine has taken Russia’s heavy punch without buckling.

Strange as it sounds, it’s uplifting to visit Ukraine these days. This is a place where the good guys are winning — or at least holding their own. And they’re surviving with help from a stalwart Europe rather than a retreating United States.

At the Kyiv Security Forum here last week, European defense leaders voiced solidarity with Ukraine in a war against Russia that they now see as a common fight. “We should be in awe, admiration, and gratitude for what Ukraine is doing,” Adm. Tony Radakin, Britain’s former chief of defense, told the gathering. 

And there was a palpable anger here at President Donald Trump, who European leaders see as pulling away from NATO at the very moment when Europe most needs American help. “The United States is not an ally anymore,” warned Nicolas Tenzer, a prominent French defense analyst. That’s an extreme view, but it reflects a common consternation that Trump has broken the trust that sustained the transatlantic alliance.

The deep concerns I’ve heard in past wartime visits here have eased. Ukrainian troops held firm against Russia’s ferocious assault on the front lines last fall, and its cities survived a terrible, frigid winter despite a Russian blitz on energy infrastructure. Now spring has arrived: It’s warm again, and the power is still on. Ukraine has taken Russia’s heavy punch without buckling.

“We are definitely not losing,” affirmed Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the former head of military intelligence who is now the top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, in remarks to the forum. That’s about as upbeat as the taciturn Budanov ever gets. But European defense chiefs gathered here seemed to share the assessment that, as one put it, “the Ukrainians have outpaced Russia in spite of being outgunned.”

A year ago, I wondered whether European nations would be willing or able to take over from the U.S. as Ukraine’s protector. The desire is now clearly there, although the capability lags. During the conference, a representative of the European Union announced approval of a new 90 billion euro loan (about $106 billion) for Ukraine. Gen. Sean Clancy, the chair of the E.U. Military Committee, promised: “Europe will continue supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.” 

Europeans seem to realize that, in confronting a growing threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin, they need Ukraine’s strong military as much as Kyiv needs support from European capitals. “Ukraine has become a fortress, a lesson Europe would do well to learn,” Clancy told the conference.

Ukraine has one thing that Europe (and most other countries) desperately need, which is expertise in drone warfare — both offense and defense. The Ukrainians are offering to share this experience with partners, and the Kyiv gathering at times seemed almost a sales conference for Ukrainian drone-makers.

Top European defense officials listened intently at a private session on “New Age Defense,” where a representative of the drone unit of the Azov Brigade explained how Ukraine maintains its edge, with monthly updates of its drone and electronic warfare systems. He said that drones account for 92 percent of the brigade’s target kills, while just 3 percent come from artillery.

The Europeans seemed to get the message. “Warfare is a race of innovation, and time is a domain of war,” responded Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chief of the NATO Military Committee. “We need more cooperation with Ukraine to adapt at the speed of conflict.” 

The Kyiv forum showed that Ukraine’s remarkable defense innovation is nurtured by constant interaction between soldiers at the front and agile defense-tech companies. This feedback loop was explained by Oleksandr Yakovenko, founder of a drone-maker called TAF Industries. He said he had returned from the eastern front the previous day and would soon visit his plant to retool.

This innovation ecosystem is badly needed in Europe, Yakovenko argued: “European companies will take two years to solve a problem. We can do it in a month.” This same “learn from Ukraine” theme was expressed by Col. Mykyta Nadtochii. He told Europeans who are pledging support: “You’re not just doing this for Ukraine; you’re doing it for yourselves.” 

Europe is already getting buzzed by Russian drones. So Europeans listened with special interest to a panel discussion on anti-drone defense. Oleksandr Yarmak, who created an air-defense brigade known as “Darknode,” said that his unit had downed 2,757 Shahed drones over the past two years.

Ukraine currently neutralizes 70 percent of Russia’s drone attacks and hopes to boost that kill rate to more than 90 percent by the end of this year, Yarmak said. “My message to our European partners is that you should build air defense capability quickly. An attack of 500 drones in one day can lead to your capitulation.” 

Can a comfortable and hidebound Europe really become as tough and innovative as Ukraine? Maj. Illia Samoilenko, who lost one hand in combat with the Azov Brigade, had some tart words. Europeans, he said, “forgot how to fight. … Decades of inaction put them in a very disadvantageous position. They should take a cold shower.”

But we all know the old saw about how necessity is the mother of invention. What has happened in Ukraine over the past four years of war profoundly demonstrates that truth. And now, necessity seems to be forcing Europe to abandon its old passivity and work creatively with Ukraine to fend off a hostile Russia.