Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
Russian losses in March reached their highest level since the start of the war as drones accounted for 96% of those casualties. For four months in a row, Russian losses have exceeded replenishment rates. The Ukrainians say each loss has been verified by their ePoints verification system, (meaning) they have a picture or video to back up these losses. The Ukrainians are also trying to degrade Russian air defense capabilities here which will further increase the effectiveness of Ukrainian UAVs. This means the Ukrainian drone wall seems a reality and growing. Ukraine has been able to double its drone manufacturing each year, producing 4 million in 2025, 2.2 million in 2024, and 800,000 in 2023. They are hoping to double production in 2026 compared to 2025, which was double that of 2024.
On Friday both President Zelensky and Defense Minister Fedorov, in quick succession, sent out tweets about Russian casualties in March. Here they are, the Zelensky one is long but worth a full read. The Fedorov tweet has a video of just how relentlessly UAV are being used to hunt down human soldiers.
Now, the release of these messages, within a few hours, was clearly coordinated and the Ukrainians were trying to get out a definite narrative—or we might say two definite narratives. One is that Russian casualties are not only extremely high but are at record levels (more than 35,300 in March). Moreover, these loss rates are rising and being inflicted at rates higher than the Russians can replace. The Ukrainians are still talking about reaching their target of 50,000+ Russian casualties a month, which I originally thought would be almost impossible to reach in 2026 (something else I might have been wrong about).
To try and back up their claims, the Ukrainians say that each loss has been verified by their ePoints verification system. In other words, they are saying that have a picture or video to back up all/almost all of these losses.
Note: Zelensky also released a very high statistic for Russian anti-aircraft system losses in March, at 274. So the Ukrainians are clearly trying to degrade Russian capabilities here which will further increase the effectiveness of Ukrainian UAV. Though no breakdown was given on the kinds of anti-air systems destroyed, that certainly would be destruction at a rate above replacement manufacture as well.
This in and of itself would be an important story—rising Russian losses at rates above replacement level is a terrible trajectory for Putin. The war is now more than four years old (since the full-scale invasion) and that, btw, is often the time or indeed after the time when generating new soldiers becomes very difficult. The Red Army in World War 2, for instance, peaked in strength before the war reached its fourth year and was actually on a downward trajectory in 1945.
However this is only part of the story. Maybe even more remarkable, is the claim of how the Russian casualties were inflicted. Zelensky said that about 96% of Russian casualties were caused by Ukrainian UAV. That means everything else, from artillery, to tanks, to small arms, to mines, etc, accounted for only 4% of Russian casualties in March. I do not know if I have ever seen such a lopsided claim in modern industrial war.
What this means, if true, is that the Ukrainian drone wall seems very much a reality and a growing one. Ukrainian drone production is set to rise steeply in 2026 compared to 2025. Basically the Ukrainians are hoping to almost double production in 2026 compared to 2025, which was itself almost double that of 2024.
Here is an excerpt from one story on the rise:
Ukraine plans to make 7 million military drones in 2026, deputy defense minister Serhiy Boev said at NATO’s Operational Force Development Framework (OFDeF) conference.
So far, Ukraine has been able to roughly double its drone manufacturing count each year, producing at least 4 million in 2025, 2.2 million in 2024, and 800,000 in 2023.
And, btw, Russian UAV production also seems to be rising steadily—which is why the Ukrainians need to reduce the number of troops on the front lines.
Is this a historic shift?. Well, if you are looking at the transformation from 2024 to today, the answer is definitely yes. To say that during the course of a war that a system that was not considered important at its start is now inflicting 96% of casualties has nothing that I think can compare to it.
Thankfully, the Ukrainians understood this historic shift before the Russians. Indeed, it is notable that Ukrainian sources are publicly speaking about how, even though the Russians are the ones who have recently launched another one of their mass offensives, it is now the Ukrainians who actually are showing greater initiative.
And if the Russians have no alternative but to try and advance with humans against UAV, more and more they will continue to lose that initiative. March could be a harbinger of what is to come.
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