A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 3, 2026

With 35,000+ March Russian Losses, "Ukraine In Best Position of Past 10 Months"

Ukraine believes it is in the best position it has been in the past ten months - since the middle of 2025 - as in March, for the third month in a row, it has inflicted more than 30,000 casualties on Russian forces, with March's total topping 35,000. 

Not only are Ukrainian defenses holding, but the Ukrainians have gone on the offensive in multiple sectors. Should the Ukrainian reach their goal of inflicting 50,000 a month on the Kremlin's troops, it would be 'catastrophic' for Russia. JL

Olena Harmash reports in Global Banking and Finance, Adriana Mullayanova reports in Express Global:

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said the frontline situation for Ukraine was the best since the middle of last year, "the best it has been in the last ten months. Thanks to the strikes of our drones, 33,988 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded, and another 1,363 were eliminated due to artillery and other sources. That is, more than 35,000 Russian losses in a month." Russia is losing 30,000–35,000 personnel monthly so far this year, with a loss ratio of 1:8 compared to Ukrainian forces. If Russian losses climb to 50,000 a month, it could be catastrophic for Russia’s military.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the frontline situation for Ukraine was the best since the middle of last year, adding that Kyiv's troops had foiled a Russian offensive in March.

With the war in its fifth year, the fighting is raging along more than 1,200 km (745 miles) of the frontline. Russian troops are grinding down Ukrainian defences, but Kyiv is also counterattacking. 

 Zelenskyy said that in March the Russian army lost more than 35,000 soldiers, which was the largest result since the start of the full-scale invasion.

He wrote about this in a telegram.

"Only thanks to the strikes of our drones, 33,988 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded, and another 1,363 occupiers were eliminated thanks to artillery and other strikes. That is, more than 35,000 Russian losses in a month."  

Ukrainian estimates indicate Russia is losing 30,000–35,000 personnel monthly, with an estimated loss ratio of 1:8 compared to Ukrainian forces. Officials warn that if losses climb to 50,000 a month, the consequences for Russia’s military capacity could be catastrophic.

Territorial Gains and Military Operations

Zelenskiy said that taking into account both the occupation and the liberation of the territories, Kyiv was "slightly in the positive", liberating about 20 sq km. He did not specify a time frame for the gains.

Thwarted Russian Offensive

"The offensive they were planning for March was thwarted by the actions of our armed forces. That is why the Russians will now simply step up their assault operations," Zelenskiy said, in remarks released by his office on Friday.

"At this point, we do not see a large-scale threat."

Russian Troop Movements and Regional Focus

Russian Troops Gather Near Pokrovsk

Russia controls just under 20% of Ukraine's territory - much of that seized before the 2022 full-scale invasion. The DeepState open source intelligence map suggests Russia has advanced by only around 500 sq km in total since the start of January, slowing the pace from last year.

Frontline Stability and Intelligence Reports

"Overall, the front line is holding ... The situation is complex, but the best it has been in the last 10 months," he said, citing data from Ukrainian and British intelligence.

The Russian troops were amassing near the logistics hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region and also near Hulaipole in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, Zelenskiy said.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 230 combat clashes over the past 24 hours, saying that most of the attacks were near Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia. It said fighting typically accelerates as the weather warms, and efforts to find a diplomatic solution have so far brought no results

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