Putin's "Inevitable Victory In History's Dustbin" As Ukraine takes 100 Sq Miles In May

In the four week period ending May 28th, Ukrainian forces took over 100 square miles from the reeling Russians, confirming the growing sense that Ukraine has changed the war on the ground and the narrative on the airwaves. This followed a net Russian loss of 26 square miles in April.

The combined effect of Ukraine's frontline advances, devastating mid-range logistics destruction campaign and long range economic targeting appear to be too much for the Kremlin's overmatched military. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The broader picture shows a deterioration for Russian forces. Their progress for the last month has taken small parcels in different areas, but has not been significant and has come at a massive cost in manpower and resources.  In the four weeks ending 26 May 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory, with a net loss of 26 square miles in the preceding month. In the week of 19-26 May, Russia lost 38 square miles. Ukraine’s mid-range drone campaign appears to be exerting effects on Russian operational capacity in the south.  Russia’s Spring offensive, as a cohesive campaign, has not generated the tempo to change the situation on the ground. Putin’s ’inevitable victory’ narrative seems to now be firmly in the dustbin of history.

Along the front line, the picture remains one of grinding pressure. In the north, Russian forces have continued offensive operations in Sumy Oblast, probing and advancing incrementally through forested terrain using infiltration tactics. Russian offensive operations also continue in northern Kharkiv Oblast, where Ukrainian forces were conducting counterattacks.

The capture of Ukraine’s fortress belt remains the Russian main effort on the ground. While the Russian plan continues to seek an operational double envelopment, Russian ground forces are also attacking from the east to draw Ukrainian forces east and fix them in place. As the maps below demonstrate, Russia has made some progress on this axis since January 2026, but it is not significant and has come at a massive cost in manpower and resources.

Russian 'progress' against the Fortress Belt, 1 January - 30 May 2026. Source: DeepState Live

The broader picture for the past month, as analysed by the Russia Matters newsletter, shows a deterioration for Russian forces. In the four weeks ending 26 May 2026, Russian forces registered a net loss of 100 square miles of Ukrainian territory, with a net loss of 26 square miles in the preceding four-week period. In the week of 19-26 May, Russia lost 38 square miles. Ukraine’s mid-range drone campaign appears to be exerting effects on Russian operational capacity in the south.

Russia’s Spring Campaign may be taking small parcels of land in different parts of the frontline, but as a cohesive major campaign, it has not generated the tempo or momentum necessary to change the situation on the ground. Further, the Ukrainian resistance on the eastern and southern fronts, and Putin’s pathetic ‘please don’t attack my Victory Day parade’ plea, have had an impact on Russian strategic influence operations. It is probably obvious by now, but Putin’s ’inevitable victory’ narrative seems to now be firmly in the dustbin of history.

President Zelenskyy held a staff meeting in mid-May to analyse intelligence on Russian planning in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction, stating that Ukraine was “preparing responses to every possible course of enemy action” and that forces in the northern sector would be increased. He also directed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to prepare additional diplomatic measures regarding Belarus, which Russia might use as a staging ground to expand the war. The concern about a northern axis is not new, but the formal intelligence assessment and public communication of preparations signals Kyiv’s seriousness about the threat.