Russia Loses Ground For 1st Time In Years As Ukraine Drones Strike Units Harder

Russia's winter offensive never got off the ground. It's spring summer offensive is generously referred to as 'sputtering.' Generous, because in a growing number of sectors, the Russians are actually losing territory. 

The reasons vary by region, but Russia's chronic supply and reinforcement issues have been exacerbated by increasingly accurate and lethal short, medium and long range drone strikes which have systematically reduced the ability of the Kremlin's formations to actually organize and launch attacks before they are spotted and destroyed by the Ukrainians. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Russia's sputtering offensive suffered losses of territory for two straight months: a loss of 67 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in April after losing 31 kms in March. Ukraine's drones are striking harder and more often across occupied Ukraine and even deep into Russia and it's spring offensive is already faltering. Russian forces still enjoy a manpower and firepower advantage. But Ukraine's intensifying heavy drone strikes are fraying Russian logistics and chipping away at Russian regiments' combat power before they even begin their attacks. Those strikes are eroding the Russians' fighting strength. “We are methodically destroying the key elements of the enemy’s military infrastructure,"

Ukrainian drones are striking harder and more often across occupied Ukraine and even deep into Russia itself. At the same time, Russia's spring offensive is off to a slow start—if not already faltering.

The two things are almost certainly related. Russian forces still enjoy a manpower and firepower advantage over Ukrainian defenders. But Ukraine's intensifying heavy drone strikes are fraying Russian logistics and chipping away at Russian regiments' combat power before the regiments even begin their attacks.

There's still time for Russia's usual spring offensive to gain momentum, potentially leading to significant territorial gains for Moscow. But there's another possible outcome for the regime of Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin. "With large-scale deep strikes on his territory, and a ground campaign not generating tempo, 2026 may be the worst year yet for Putin," commented Mick Ryan, a retired Australian army general.

Russia Matters, a project of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, quantified what Ryan described as the "sputtering" Russian offensive. Borrowing data from the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia Matters found that Russian forces suffered a loss of 67 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the month ending 28 April.

The Russians have actually been falling back, overall, for two months now. Russian forces gave up 31 square kilometers in March after gaining 119 square kilometers in February.

The important caveat, according to Russia Matters, is that the Russians' losses are net losses. Moscow's regiments have retreated from some settlements in southeastern Ukraine but, according to Ukrainian mapper DeepState, have advanced in 10 other settlements: some in the southeast and others along the most important axes in the east including the Pokrovsk-to-Kramatorsk axis and the Chasiv Yar-to-Kramatorsk axis.

But losses are losses, and reason for optimism in Kyiv if they continue. They're also evidence that Ukraine's drone campaign is working. "It seems Ukraine want to use strategic drones as a game-changer," mapper Clément Molin explained.

Molin mapped 440 drone strikes in April alone: 330 mid-range strikes inside occupied Ukraine and another 110 long-range strikes inside Russia.

Mid-range strikes in the Russian logistical zone, stretching as far as 200 km from the disputed gray zone, have an immediate military impact as supply trucks, regimental headquarters and drone bases burn. Long-range strikes inside Russia damage factories and refiners in pursuit of longer-term economic impact.

 

Shaun Pinner, a former British soldier who has fought for Ukraine, identified last year's battle for Pokrovsk as a turning point. Russian forces finally captured the fortress city in December after a costly 18-month effort. "Pokrovsk is where Putin smashed his teeth," Pinner wrote.

But the battle didn't occur in a vacuum. Since last summer, Ukrainian drone teams have been systematically targeting Russian radars, surface-to-air missile batteries and mobile air defense systems all along the 1,200-km gray zone. 

It seems those strikes are in turn gradually eroding the Russians' fighting strength. “We are methodically destroying the key elements of the enemy’s military infrastructure," stated Yevhen Khmara, the head of Ukraine's state security service.

No one pretends the drone campaign will bring a swift end to Russia's wider war on Ukraine. It is, at best, a slow strategic effort that could gradually tilt the battlefield back in Ukraine's favor.

The Russians may still advance in the short and medium term. They may even advance a lot when and where local conditions favor Russia's larger front-line force.

But that doesn't necessarily mean Russia is winning.