Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
The giant fire in the major oil refinery at Tuapse can be seen through the massive smoke plume from the fire which stretches over 380 kilometers across the Black Sea, making it visible from Crimea, as well as the coastal regions of neighboring countries like Georgia and Turkey. Ukraine has disabled considerable parts of the eight major oil and gas facilities in Krasnodar Krai including the Tuapse Refinery. The installations Ukraine is hammering in Ust Luga and Krasnodar Krai are not replicated anywhere else in Russia. Nor can they be easily and quickly replaced. Even though Trump lifting the oil sanctions on Russia in order to help Putin’s coffers to an estimated $10 billion, Russia has lost at least $7 billion since the start of 2026 due to Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure.
Vladimir Putin’s ornate Italianate palace complex located on the Black Sea coast near Gelendzhik in Krasnodar Krai, Russia is only 60 miles away(as the crow flies) from the giant oil refinery facility in Tuapse, also in Krasnodar Krai. It is highly doubtful that the eminent resident at Gelendzhik cannot see the thick black billows of oily smoke as the cold bora winds from the inland mountains commence their pas de deux with the warm sea breezes from the Black Sea to spin the thick oily smoke higher and higher for all in the Krasnodar coastal area to see. A key foundation of the local and regional economy is going up in smoke.
The oil fire in Tuapse can also be seen as far away as Novorossiysk, Russia’s Southernmost major port and refuge of the Russian Black Sea Navy after it skedaddled from its erstwhile base in Crimea due to Ukrainian bombing campaigns. Imagine what remnant members of that Russian fleet must be thinking now … ain’t no where safe?.
While primarily located in and visible from Russia, the massive smoke plume from the fire at the Tuapse oil refinery reportedly stretches over 380 kilometers across the Black Sea, making it visible via satellite and potentially from Crimea, as well as the coastal regions of neighboring countries like Georgia and Turkey, depending on atmospheric conditions. Ukraine is sending a message to the people of Krasnodar Krai, the rest of Russia, the co-opted provincial republics and even the much put -upon neighboring Georgia. We intend to bring this giant hairy predatory bear to heel. If we can, so can you.
By steadily bringing the war to the Russian mainland and hobbling both of Russia’s two main oil and gas export outlets … Ust-Luga on the Baltic sea and the several facilities in Krasnodar Krai, Ukraine is sending another message. We are going for the economic jugular of Russia … about 20% of total Russian national GDP.
Ukraine has hit and disabled considerable parts of the eight major oil and gas facilities in Krasnodar Krai … Tuapse Oil Refinery, Afipsky Oil Refinery, Ilsky Oil Refinery, Tamanneftegaz Oil Terminal, Sheskharis Oil Terminal, Armavir, Tikhoretsk Oil Pumping Station and Labinsk Oil Depot. Not only the refineries but Ukraine has mounted an aggressive campaign on crude oil production facilities all over Russia. It is worth noting, however that the facilities in Krasnodar are of particular importance because they are the oldest and largest continuing Russian oil producing region (since 1865). The installations Ukraine is hammering in Ust Luga and Krasnodar Krai are not replicated anywhere else in Russia. Nor can they be easily and quickly replaced.
And so it is that the ever wily Putin would try to turn Krasnov‘s misbegotten and quixotic war with Iran to his advantage in order to cause a rise in global oil rices and thereby garner more revenue to the Russian treasury to finance Putin’s own misbegotten Special Military Operation in Ukraine … something about birds of the same feather. But what Putin and Krasnov didn’t factor into their conspiracy was that even though Krasnov could propose lifting the oil sanctions on Russia in order to help Putin’s coffers … to an estimated bonanza of $10 billion, Ukraine does indeed have the means to determine the eventual outcome of this dastard plan.
Yes, Ukraine does have “cards”. And boy, are they playing them !! According to latest estimates, Ukraine has levied upon the Russians a significant loss in oil and gas revenue … so far in 2026, with the implication that it could become even larger:
‘New level’ Ukraine strikes cost Russia $7 billion in oil revenue in 2026, Zelensky says
Russia has lost at least $7 billion since the start of 2026 due to Ukrainian strikes on its oil infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 1.
The estimate comes as Ukraine intensifies long-range attacks on Russia’s energy sector, aiming to undermine a key source of funding for Moscow’s war effort.
Zelensky said April marked “a new level” in the campaign, pointing to declining Russian oil revenues, as well as the growing scope and effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes.
“It is important that not only is the target itself reached, as defined by the operational objective, but that the downtime of the target is increased or, at the very least, its operations are significantly reduced,” the Ukrainian president said.
He attributed the losses to direct hits on facilities, prolonged outages, and disruptions to oil shipments.
And I think the futility of the plan to help his Kremlin pay master has sunk in for even Krasnov, causing him to have his minion Scott Bessent announce that the United States will not renew the temporary lifting of the sanctions on Russian oil. Chalk up another Krasnov Fail:
US won’t renew Iranian and Russian oil waivers, Bessent says
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday that the U.S. does not plan to renew a waiver allowing the purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products that are currently at sea. And, he said, a renewal of the one-time waiver for Iranian oil at sea is totally off the table.
We shall see if they(Krasnov and co.) keep their word, as we wait to see if Putin henchman, Kirill Dmitriev, once again gets on a plane to DC to twist arms and ask for another extension/renewal of waiver. But ADAPTIVE INDOMTABLE UKRAINE will surely keep theirs … by levying on Russian oil and gas “losses [due] to direct hits on facilities, prolonged outages, and disruptions to oil shipments.”. No doubt Ukraine will keep on with its program of subtraction from any oil and gas (and lately stolen grain) revenue Russia might hope to receive via its many underhanded ways.
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