How Ukraine's Drones Broke Through Moscow's Air Defenses

Moscow is surrounded by a dense ring of air defenses and the oil refinery just outside the city - in which the top of a storage tank blew off after being struck (likely by a misfiring Russian anti-air missile) - is arguably the most heavily defended such facility in the world. And yet, Ukrainian drones found their way through with relative ease.

The reason is that the Ukrainians have been systematically and relentlessly targeting Russian air defense systems since the invasion over four years ago, degrading their capabilities. In addition, the Russian systems are aging and were not designed to hit drones which are smalled and more maneuverable than planes or missiles. And finally, there is the Russian penchant for internal competition, incompetence and corruption, which further limits their effectiveness. The combined weight of those problems is why Ukraine's drones will continue to get through to Moscow. JL

Lauren Kent and colleagues report in CNN:

Thursday's attack on Moscow – the biggest since the start of the full-scale war – was another example of how Ukraine’s strategy to overwhelm Russian air defenses with drones found success. Ukraine has destroyed 166 Russian “anti-air elements” since the start of this year, and 1,432 since 2022. Plus, Russia’s air defenses were not designed to combat drone. Video of firing man portable air defense rockets on a busy highway is indicative of a hasty, ad-hoc and unprofessional response to the attack. One defense missile missed its target, hitting an oil storage tank, “a Russian own-goal,” ending in a cloud of smoke and the  top of the tank blasting into the air. “Russia has a track record of old systems not being 100% reliable.” Modern drones break through because they are more difficult to track than missiles or aircraft. Hundreds of drones coming from multiple directions requires coordination from Russia’s integrated air defense systems, which “is not happening”

As a barrage of Ukrainian drones descended on Moscow in the early hours of Thursday, Russia’s response appeared more like a scramble, and less like a well-planned strategic defense. Videos from the streets of the capital showed glimpses of the ensuing chaos.

Footage verified by CNN and analyzed by experts shows soldiers firing portable, shoulder-mounted air-defense systems from a busy highway, as traffic cautiously passes by. People run for safety as a drone, probably downed by Russian air defenses, plummets into a building in a sprawling marketplace.

In another video, what appears to be a Russian defense missile likely misses its target and instead hits an oil storage tank on the outskirts of Moscow. One weapons expert from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute told CNN that it was “a Russian own-goal,” ending in a mushroom cloud of smoke and the huge top of the tank blasting into the air.

Thursday’s attack on Moscow – the biggest since the start of the full-scale war – was yet another example of how Ukraine’s strategy to overwhelm Russian air defenses with drones appears to have found success.

“Russia has a track record of old systems not being 100% reliable,” Markus Schiller, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said of the scrambled response in Moscow. Ukraine, meanwhile, has been continuously improving its attack capabilities “for years.” 

Ukraine has been stepping up long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries and military sites since 2024. It recently broke through Russian defenses in St. Petersburg and has repeatedly hit Moscow, bringing the war home to Russia’s two largest cities.

“The video capturing the firing of man portable air defense systems (MANPADS) on a busy highway is indicative of a hasty, ad-hoc and frankly unprofessional response to the attack. The complete lack of traffic control and the utilization of military hardware incredibly proximate to civilian vehicles and individuals reinforces this assessment,” said Stu Ray, a senior analyst at McKenzie Intelligence Services.

Earlier in the conflict, Russia concentrated its air defense systems at the border with Ukraine and at the frontline, Ukrainian military sources previously told CNN. But Kyiv’s strategy has been to target many different locations inside occupied areas of eastern Ukraine and Russia, forcing Russia to spread out air defense systems into a more threadbare tapestry. 

Kyiv has also targeted the air-defense launchers themselves for years, as well as radar detection systems, in an effort to diminish Russia’s defense capabilities. Ukraine’s Armed Forces claims it has destroyed 166 Russian “anti-air elements” since the start of this year, and more than 1,432 since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

Moreover, Russia’s air defense systems were not designed to combat drone attacks. They were designed to shoot down conventional military aircraft, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, according to Thomas Withington, a military sciences fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

“Russia’s air defenses are simply not fit for purpose, that’s very clear,” Withington told CNN. “They are not equipped to detect, track and engage this kind of attack, and barring some massive redesign of the Russian air defense system, that will remain the case.”

Withington noted that international sanctions have hampered Moscow’s ability to access the technology needed to develop new systems capable of engaging these Ukrainian attacks. “Even if you could ramp up production, you will just ramp up production on missile systems that aren’t even doing the job,” he said. 

The mounting drone threat forced the Kremlin to scale back its Victory Day parade in Red Square in May, with no military hardware on display – unlike at previous events – due to what the Russian Defense Ministry called the “current operational situation.” Moscow also pushed for a temporary ceasefire during the festivities. 

Still, experts say Russian air defenses are likely shooting down a large percentage of Ukrainian drones. On Friday morning, the Russian military claimed it downed 216 Ukrainian drones across the country.

Ukraine’s commander of Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, said in an assessment of the city of Moscow’s air defenses that the Russian capital still had more than 100 air defense launchers and more than 50 “Pantsir” mobile air defense systems as of mid-May.

But with Ukraine launching more than 100 drones in a single attack, at least some of them are likely to make it past defenses, even if they are well stocked.

Modern drones can also break through because they are more difficult to track than larger missiles or aircraft. 

“They may appear on radar, but there is a world of difference between detecting something on radar and then getting what we call a ‘quality track,’” Withington said.

And hundreds of drones coming from multiple directions requires a huge amount of coordination from Russia’s integrated air defense systems, which “is not happening properly,” he said.

Repeated, mass long-range attacks by Ukraine have led to speculation that Russia could also be running low on defense munitions. Experts caution that it’s difficult to know what the country’s defense missile stockpiles look like as that information is closely guarded. But inventories are bound to wear down if Ukraine’s salvos remain large and frequent. 

“In terms of the frequency and the severity of the attacks by Ukraine against Russia, all of the options for Russia are bad,” Withington added. “I think it’s probably a case of the military thinking, what’s the least bad option in trying to counter what we’re facing from Ukraine.”