Decimus reports in Daily Kos and David Axe reports in Trench Art:
It never fails. The Russians make a big to-do about having captured a major Ukrainian city. Soon thereafter, all hell breaks loose on the Russians. Recent examples? the Feigned Retreat from Pokrovsk last fall leaving them stuck inside the city, still unable to break through the Ukrainian defenses. After months of Russian infiltration into Kupiansk, the Ukrainians routed them and have pushed them across the Oskil River. Huiliapole. Lyman. Luhansk. Zaporizhzhia. Siversk. For months after nearby Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka complicated Russian efforts to march on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Now ruined Kostiantynivka no longer fulfills that purpose. But it may not need to. Cities are good for infantry-based defense, but open fields (where there's nowhere to hide) are good for drone-based defenses. Now that Ukraine has pivoted to a drone-centric defensive strategy, commanders actually prefer to fight out in the open rather than inside cities.
Kostiantynivka is, by now, largely devoid of civilians. Its value lies in what it protects. For months after the fall of nearby Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka complicated Russian efforts to march on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last big free cities in Donetsk Oblast.
Now the ruined Kostiantynivka no longer fulfills that purpose. But it may not need to. Cities are good for infantry-based defense, but open fields (where there's nowhere to hide) are good for drone-based defenses. Now that Ukraine has pivoted to a drone-centric defensive strategy, some commanders actually prefer to fight out in the open rather than fortifying inside cities.
It's still a long march for Russian troops hoping to lay siege to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the south: 16 km as the crow flies.
It never fails. The Russians make a big to-do in the media about having captured a major Ukrainian city. Then General Syrskyi somehow finds his way into the very same city. Soon thereafter, all heck breaks loose on the Russians. Recent examples? Syrskyi’s Feigned Retreat from Pokrovsk last fall which enabled his troops to stabilize that front and harden their defenses on the outskirts. The Russians are stuck inside the inner city of Pokrovsk, still unable to break through the Ukrainian defenses on the outer edges of the city at Rodynske, Hrishyne, and Dobropiliya.
Kupyansk. After months of slow trickle Russian infiltration into the city center amidst official Russian claims of capture, the Ukrainians routed the Russians and have now pushed them across the far eastern banks of the Oskil River. The Russians ultimate goal of capturing the major rail hub at Kupyansk Vuzlovy still remains well out of reach.
Huliaipole. After a sudden blitzgrieg across the Haichur River to storm the city which was defended by the lightly armored 102nd Territorial Guards of Ukraine in a bid to get behind the main Ukrainian lines in Zaporizhia, the Russians are now still stuck in the city unable to break out. In fact, in the aftermath, what had once been localized counterattacks by the Ukrainians have gradually turned from small gains of 3-4km here and there into a larger campaign, which when added together now covers a combined area of about 50 km wedged into Russian positions between Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. These tactical “wedges” are creating serious obstacles for Russia’s offensive capabilities and forcing them to deploy reserves in the area which could otherwise be used elsewhere on the battle trace:
Russian Lines Near Pokrovsk Hit by Ukrainian Counterattack, Forces Push 3 km Deep
“In some locations, our forces managed to wedge themselves three kilometers into the depth of the Russian occupiers’ defense. And the operation continues.”
It is important to note that this recent Ukrainian “wedges” are separate from the successful counteroffensive in the Oleksandrivka direction, which lies at the junction of Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts:
Ukraine has liberated 400 square kilometers, 8 settlements on southern front since January, Syrskyi says
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-liberates-400-square-km-in-south-syrskyi-says
Lyman. The Russians not only claimed a “break through” in this critical northeast Donetsk oblast defensive anchor. They even reported this fallacy to Czar Putin himself:
Putin told of Russian “breakthrough” into Lyman, Ukrainian forces call claim untrue
Valery Gerasimov, Chief of Russia’s General Staff, has reported to Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin about a Russian breakthrough into Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, but Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps denies this claim and stresses that Ukrainian forces are holding the line in the city.
Luhansk oblast. Contrary to the Russian claim that they have captured all of Luhansk oblast, it is rather the Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps which has the Russians back-peddling. Along with the 60th, 63rd, and 66th brigades, it is repelling simultaneous assaults from the Russian 20th, 1st Tank, and 25th Armies in the Luhansk region to prevent a breakthrough toward the Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka section of the “Fortress Belt”. The 3rd Corps also refuted Russian claims about full control over Luhansk Oblast, as its units including the stalwart 3rd Assault Brigade still hold key settlements like Novoyegorivka, Nadiya, and Hrekivka. Not only that but the corps’ unmanned systems battalion has declared operational control over Russian logistics routes in occupied Luhansk, striking targets up to 205 km deep aiming to disrupt supply lines in cities like Luhansk, Starobilsk, and Brianka.(Hello kos. Thinking of those days when you advocated a Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at these locales in Luhansk oblast):
“In response to the enemy’s statements about the complete capture of the Luhansk region, we are announcing an operation to control logistics routes in the Luhansk region and Eastern Slobozhansk region. Luhansk, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Bryanka, Kadiivka are now under the control of the UAVs of the Third Army Corps,” said corps commander Andriy Biletsky.
Nearly 5 years of full scale war and “Mighty Russia” still does not have full control of a single Ukrainian oblast. Not one. Zero !! And now even Russia’s hold on Crimea becomes tenuous each passing day. So now Russia is left with nothing but lobbing drones and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian civilians and wasting hundreds of thousands of lives on relatively fruitless assaults to occupy broken and destroyed “concrete jungles” which were once bustling and fruitful Ukrainian cities.
The latest of these is the Donetsk oblast city of Kostiantynivka where Russian infiltration teams reportedly totaling up to 250 have entered the city center creating what some observers have likened to a “Pokrovsk scenario”… a slow incremental Russian build-up of combat units inside the city. Followed by intense battles in which Ukrainian forces exact a heavy toll in personnel, leaving the Russians hunkered down in the destroyed urban core while the Ukrainians maintain their staunch defenses around the periphery.
The critical operative word here is slow. That is the way the Ukrainians play it … paying out rope a little bit at a time(one farmer’s field or a 5 house piatykhatky) as the Russian bear ponderously creeps forward and absorb unconscionably huge death tolls and loss of materiél. Then suddenly they find themselves unable to break out. It happened at Siversk, too. Russian troops captured the town after 41 months of fighting and pushed to the heights west and northwest of the settlement. The Ukrainians own those heights. And the Russian advance toward the “fortress belt” of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk has since bogged down … slow and laboriously … as it inches along. It has even cost them the life of the unit commander(by Ukrainian FPV), Senior Lieutenant Naran Ochir-Goryaev who famously relayed the entry of Russian troops into Siversk via live feed to Putin. An ethnic Kalmyk, Putin awarded him the coveted “Hero of Russia”:
“Every meter of the town was costly for them”: Ukraine withdraws from Siversk after bleeding Russia for 41 months
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/23/ukraine-withdraws-from-siversk
Kostyantynivka will be an order of magnitude harder for the Russians than Pokrovsk. To begin with, it is a much larger urban agglomeration with pre-war population variously reported at around100,000 people compared to Pokrovsk’s pre-war 60,000. Furthermore Kostiantynivka is much more heavily industrialized with those structures aiding defense. And a river, the Kryvyi Torets , with its swamps and riverine cliffs bisects the city thereby affording defenders even more “good ground” to fight from. Additionally, unlike Pokrovsk, the Ukrainians have had years to prepare their New Donbas Line, sometimes referred to as the “Ukrainian Surovikin Line” which takes in the northern outskirts of Kostiantynivka and connects with the rest of the “Fortress Belt”. And the Ukrainians have without a doubt learned a few things from their experiences at Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Siversk.
The Ukrainian 19th Army Corps, led by Brigadier General Oleksandr Bakulin, is the primary formation defending Kostiantynivka and contrary to the usual hand-waving and prediction of impending and even immediate doom which occasions such tense situation on the front, he had this to say about the situation:
Commander of 19th Army Corps: Russia does not control any part of Kostiantynivka, there are only around 123 Russian troops in the city
Bakulin said the Russians have employed their tactic of infiltrating in small groups – a method they previously refined on the Pokrovsk front.
However, he stressed that the defence forces have learned from the mistakes made during operations around Pokrovsk and that the situations in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka are not identical. Although the Russians are continuing to use infiltration tactics, Ukrainian forces are mounting a strong response.
Bakulin recalled that the Russians first established a noticeable presence in Kostiantynivka in November 2025. “Around 50 enemy troops managed to infiltrate at that time, although reports from various sources suggested there were as many as 200. We successfully dealt with that situation in November,” the brigadier general said.
Bakulin added that the current problem emerged around six weeks ago. “We haven’t yet managed to fully remedy it and clear the area to the extent that public concern about the presence of enemy forces in Kostiantynivka subsides. But we are taking the necessary measures. At the moment it would be premature and an exaggeration to say that the enemy controls any part of Kostiantynivka,” he emphasised.
And right on cue and as if in refutation of Russian claims of having cut all ground lines of communication into the city, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi himself attended a council of war with his corps commanders, on June 19, 2026 in Kostiantynivka as well as visits to military units in the Sloviansk, Kramatorsk sectors, receiving briefings from brigade and border guard commanders on enemy actions and logistical support levels. He addressed urgent needs for anti-drone defenses and ammunition resupply:
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi visited military units carrying out combat missions in the Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka sectors.
According to the Commander-in-Chief, Russian forces continue to apply constant pressure, benefiting from a manpower advantage and disregarding their losses.
“The enemy is attempting to advance in small assault groups, searching for weak points in our defenses and increasing the intensity of attacks. We detect these intentions in a timely manner, conduct active defense operations, and inflict significant losses on the enemy,” Syrskyi said.
https://glavnoe.in.ua/en/news-en/syrskyi-makes-statement-after-frontline-visit
And contrary to the prevailing heavy mist of “eeyore factor” in the air regarding the fate of Kostiantynivka(and the Ukrainian “Fortress Belt” in general), I am persuaded that ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE has the situation well in hand. The small city of Chasiv Yar, on the northeastern flank of Kostiantynivka and just 15km from Bakhmut has withstood everything the Russians have thrown at it since the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023. Chasiv Yar still stands, despite serial Russian claims that it has captured the city:
The Battle For Chasiv Yar: How Drones Reshaped Urban Combat
In late March[2026], the Russian Ministry of Defense awarded several medals to soldiers in recognition of their role in the capture of Chasiv Yar. This follows a series of Russian claims throughout 2025 that their military had successfully taken the key city in Donetsk Oblast. However, the Institute for the Study of War has assessed that while Russia controls the eastern and central parts of the city, Ukraine still controls the western portion.
General Sirskyi made conspicuous mention of this fact as he awarded the defenders of Chasiv Yar during his visit to Kostiantynivka. Whenever and wherever General Syrskyi makes one of these field visits to embattled cities defended by Ukraine, things have a way of suddenly going giddy up and surprising the Russians. May we see another such.Kostiantynivka may yet fall but it won’t be anytime soon.
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