Multiple Sources Point To Declining Russian Battlefield Combat Effectiveness

By a variety of measures that multiple sources employ, Russian battlefield combat effectiveness is declining, resulting in growing Ukrainian offensive success. 

The Russian declines are reflected in measures including the loss of territory, increased casualties and failure to either penetrate Ukrainian defenses or to halt Ukrainian offensive operations. JL

Alex Stezhensky reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses. Analysts said the current battlefield situation, with Ukrainian and Russian positions often overlapping and the “kill zone” — an area of heightened drone strike risk — expanding, makes precise calculations of both sides’ gains and losses more difficult. Each source likely uses different methods to measure Ukrainian and Russian advances, but all reach broadly similar conclusions about combat performance at this stage of the war, pointing to a slowdown in Russia’s offensive pace and increased Ukrainian offensive activity.

Multiple sources point to declining Russian combat effectiveness on the battlefield, even though they use different mapping methods to assess territorial gains and losses, the Institute for the Study of War said in its June 6 report.

Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi, citing sources in Ukraine’s Defense Forces, reported on June 6 that Ukrainian troops liberated more territory in May 2026 than Russian forces captured. In May, Ukrainian forces regained control of or cleared Russian sabotage groups from about 250 square kilometers of territory, while Russian troops captured only 130 square kilometers over the same period, Militarnyi reported. 

In April 2026, Ukraine’s Defense Forces liberated or cleared about 80 square kilometers of territory, while Russian forces captured between 150 and 160 square kilometers, the outlet’s source said. Militarnyi’s latest estimates, as well as those from other sources, including ones linked to Ukrainian military intelligence, differ from ISW’s figures because of methodological differences. But they also point to a slowdown in Russia’s offensive pace and increased Ukrainian offensive activity, ISW analysts said.

ISW estimates that Russian forces captured or penetrated about 40 square kilometers of territory in May while losing control of about 280 square kilometers. In April, Russian troops captured or penetrated about 28 square kilometers but lost control of 116 square kilometers, ISW said.

Analysts said the current battlefield situation, with Ukrainian and Russian positions often overlapping and the “kill zone” — an area of heightened drone strike risk — expanding, makes precise calculations of both sides’ gains and losses more difficult. Each source likely uses different methods to measure Ukrainian and Russian advances, but all reach broadly similar conclusions about combat performance at this stage of the war.

Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, said on June 6 that Ukrainian troops are conducting active combat operations in parts of the Oleksandrivka sector and gradually regaining control of previously lost positions. Russian forces have been forced to shift to defense and deploy reinforcements in response, he said.