Russian Drone Attacks Decline After Ukraine Cruise Missile Hits Factory

The number of Russian Shahed drones launched against Ukrainian targets has declined for two months in a row. This is due to a attack on a factory that makes crucial Shahed components, which inflicted significant damage on the facility. 

The attack was not by Ukrainian drones, but by Ukraine's own domestically manufactured cruise missiles. If this trend holds for yet another month, it may signal another important turning point in the degradation of Russia's war-making capabilities. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

Between Between June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched five Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles at the VNIIR-Progress electronics plant in Cheboksary, in western Russia 550 miles from the front line in Ukraine. Two of the six-ton, $500,000 missiles struck the plant with their 2,500-pound warheads, punching right through anti-drone protections and inflicting major blast and fire damage that was apparent in photos and videos from the following days. In May, the Russians launched more than 8,000 Shaheds. And in both March and April they launched 6,500. One month doesn’t make a trend. But two just might. If Shahed launches are down in July, too, we may be able to look back at June as a turning point.

Between June 9 and 10, Ukrainian forces launched five Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles at the VNIIR-Progress electronics plant in Cheboksary, in western Russia 550 miles from the front line in Ukraine.

Two of the six-ton, $500,000 missiles struck the plant with their 2,500-pound warheads, punching right through anti-drone protections and inflicting major blast and fire damage that was apparent in photos and videos from the following days. (See below.)

“I thank the Armed Forces of Ukraine for their precision!” Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky crowed.

Finally, after multiple attempts, the Ukrainians have degraded if not halted production at VNIIR-Progress. The Ukrainian army’s 19th Missile Brigade previously fired FP-5s at the Cheboksary plant on May 4, but those missiles apparently narrowly missed. Earlier drone strikes on the plant inflicted only minor damage.

VNIIR-Progress makes antennae and other components for navigation systems that are critical for the production of drones and missiles. The factory is a critical link in the chain of enterprises that sustains Russia’s campaign of deep strikes on Ukrainian cities.  

Russian forces are on track to launch around 6,000 Shahed one-way attack drones at Ukrainian cities in June, according to analyst Vitaly. (Observe a Ukrainian drone strike on a Shahed launch truck, above.)

Ukrainian air-defenses typically shoot down 90% of incoming Shaheds, but the 600 that should get through still amount to … a lot of drones. Each packs a 200-pound warhead.

But 6,000 drones is actually good news. Because in May, the Russians launched more than 8,000 Shaheds. And in both March and April they launched 6,500. One month doesn’t make a trend. But two just might. If Shahed launches are down in July, too, we may be able to look back at June as a turning point. 

Ukraine’s own deep strike munitions—one-way attack drones and cruise missiles—are pummeling the industries supporting Shahed production in Russia.