Russia's 2026 Offensive Failed, War's Balance Tilted, Ukraine 'Strongest In Years'

The consensus among informed observers is that the war's balance has shifted in Ukraine's favor. this does not mean that it is over - nor that it has been won. But it may well mean that, to paraphrase Churchill's famous line, Ukraine is well past 'the end of the beginning,' and that it has far more leverage to control the timing, location and pace of the fighting than it ever has. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Putin's appearance in military uniform at a military briefing (described as “a forward command post” but in reality, it looked like a room in the Kremlin lined with camouflage nets) is attempting to sell a story of Russian success when the reality is quite different. Russia’s 2026 Spring Offensive has failed. Its long-range strike campaign is not bending the will of Ukraine’s citizens. And even the US President appears to have lost interest in Russia’s case. Russia continues to employ infiltration by small groups moving through the kill zone rather than massed assault. This might avoid catastrophic losses in a single stroke but produces a steady stream of casualties as those groups are detected and struck. Set against the wider picture, these are marginal gains bought at extraordinary cost. The balance of the war has tilted (giving) Ukraine the strongest position it has held in years. 

On Friday 3 July, during a visit to what was described as “a forward command post” but in reality, looked like a room somewhere in the Kremlin lined with camouflage nets, Putin told his commanders that Russian forces had fully captured Kostiantynivka and the entirety of Luhansk region. The following day Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian General Staff rejected the claim:

Of course, that is not true. It is just another Russian lie, an attempt to generate some kind of a news story. If Kostiantynivka were under Russian control, then perhaps Putin would have no problem meeting me there to find a diplomatic way to finally end this war. But the fact is, he won’t cross the front line – reality is very different from Putin’s words.

The General Staff confirmed on 3 July that Ukrainian units continue defensive operations within the town and on its approaches.

The city matters because Kostiantynivka is the southernmost of the four fortified cities of the fortress belt that anchors Ukraine’s defence of Donetsk. Alongside the Kostiantynivka claim, Russia’s defence ministry reported taking five villages, Shyikivka, Novyi Myr, Cherneshchyna and Druzhelyubivka in Kharkiv region and Vasylivka in Donetsk, though these could not be independently verified.

Source: ISW

Russia continues to employ infiltration by small groups moving through the kill zone rather than massed assault. This might avoid catastrophic losses in a single stroke but produces a steady stream of casualties as those groups are detected and struck. By some estimates, more than ninety percent of Russian casualties now come from drones rather than direct fire. Ukraine’s defence in depth, including trench lines, mines and the saturated aerial and ground drone deployments, has made rapid maneuver extraordinarily challenging.

Source: Russia Matters

Set against the wider picture, these are marginal gains bought at extraordinary cost. Russia has gained minimal ground over the past six months but paid a high cost to do so. New data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies puts Russian losses at roughly 1.4 million casualties and as many as 450,000 dead since February 2022, with the exchange ratio widening to nearly eight to one in the first half of this year, largely because of Ukrainian drones.

Russian forces are advancing at about fifty metres per day around Kostiantynivka, seventy around Pokrovsk and ninety around Sloviansk, among the slowest rates of any major offensive since the Somme. Russia lost more ground than it took in April and May, a net loss of roughly four hundred square kilometres and its first monthly net losses since 2024.

This provides further context for Putin’s appearance in military uniform at a military briefing. He is attempting to sell a story of Russian success when the reality is quite different. Russia’s 2026 Spring Offensive has failed. Its long-range strike campaign is not bending the will of Ukraine’s citizens or politicians. And even the US President appears to have lost interest in any advocacy for Russia’s case. 

The balance of the war has tilted. Ukraine now holds an advantage in the air-interdiction fight, and its 40-day campaign has done damage to the industry that funds the Russian war effort, brought the war home to Russians and imposed costs on Moscow that have no modern precedent. The St Petersburg raid, and its preceding Moscow attacks, demonstrates that no target in western Russia is now beyond Ukraine’s reach. This is the strongest position Ukraine has held for some years, and it has translated into leverage over Belarus.