AI Investment Is Keeping the Global Economy Afloat

Many wise investors and economists are asking if this the good news or the bad news? But most agree it's probably bad because the US GDP is being kept alive by AI spending with no guaranteed return. 

In addition, the economy is increasingly dependent on a very narrow band of companies spending money they don't have and may not ever earn. This is neither healthy nor sustainable, but with so many wealthy investors looking for returns, they are following the hype, knowing they will not have to pay the highest price if the boom craters. And that governments will have to clean up the rest. Not a recipe for optimism. JL

Jason Douglas reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The AI boom is fueling an investment surge in the U.S. and rocketing exports in Asia. Those tailwinds are lifting global growth, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. As data centers spring up in more countries, AI “is becoming a growth engine for the global economy.” The AI frenzy accounts for a third of the U.S. economy’s recent growth, as the data-center build-out sucks in semiconductors, electronics, cables, metals and machinery from around the world. Exports from China were up by a quarter in July compared with a year earlier, while exports from Japan rose 22%. Taiwan’s exports were up by a third and South Korea’s jumped 63%. The question for many economists is, will it last? And how vulnerable will the global economy be if this critical engine of demand falters? “Growth is becoming much more narrow.” That is a risk, as after breakneck growth in AI demand “we are reaching a point where we are going to see a slowdown.”

In the past few weeks, Canada and the U.S. have launched a bitter trade war, President Trump has escalated his campaign against Iran and bond yields have surged, kindling fears over higher borrowing costs around the world.

The global economy, to some surprise, has taken it all in its stride.

Oil prices remain steady at less than $90 a barrel and stock markets are trading close to recent highs. Summer brought a growth spurt to advanced economies, according to closely watched business-activity surveys, and global trade is buoyant. 

Behind this rosy picture is the artificial-intelligence boom that is fueling an investment surge in the U.S. and rocketing exports in Asia. 

Those tailwinds are lifting global growth, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and geopolitical tensions persist. 

“We have literally a tug of war between the negative supply shock from the Middle East and the positive demand shock from AI,” Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said this week. As data centers spring up in more countries, AI “is becoming a growth engine for the global economy,” she said.

The question now for many economists is, will it last? And how vulnerable will the global economy be if this critical engine of demand falters?

The uncertainty about AI-led growth comes on top of nervousness about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East exhausting energy stockpiles, straining government budgets and firing up inflation. 

“Maybe we are just living on borrowed time,” said Stefan Angrick, head of Asia-Pacific Economics at Moody’s Analytics.

Many nations have shielded households from rising energy prices stemming from the Iran war. Altaf Qadri/Associated Press

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz soon after the start of hostilities between Iran and the U.S. and Israel in February was disruptive for the world but has so far proved less catastrophic than many analysts initially feared.

Countries drew on abundant energy reserves to replace missing shipments and quickly diversified their purchases to new suppliers, including the U.S. 

China, the world’s biggest importer of oil, played a big role in keeping global oil demand and prices down by cutting back sharply on imports. 

“Chinese oil reserves have been a buffer for the whole world,” said Marieke Blom, chief economist at ING.

There were other sources of resilience. The world has learned to use oil more efficiently, squeezing more gross domestic product from each barrel. Many governments around the world have shielded households from rising energy prices with subsidies and handouts, supporting consumption. 

In Europe, higher government spending on priorities such as defense and infrastructure has also supported economies still scarred by the more severe energy disruption of 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and European gas prices skyrocketed.

But the AI bonanza has emerged as the big offset to the growth squeeze from the energy crunch. 

ING estimates the AI frenzy accounts for around a third of the U.S. economy’s recent growth, as the data-center build-out sucks in semiconductors, electronics, cables, metals and machinery from around the world.

Exports from China were up by a quarter in July compared with a year earlier, while exports from Japan rose 22%. Taiwan’s exports were up by a third and South Korea’s jumped 63%.

Even smaller economies such as Thailand are reporting bumper exports as the fever intensifies. Singapore’s government upgraded its growth forecast for the year, saying it expects its economy to expand up to 5.5% this year, from 4% previously, as it too benefits from rampant demand for semiconductors and other AI-related components. 

Yet just as economists are nervous about an escalation in the Middle East conflict, they also worry the AI boom might not last.

The IMF’s Georgieva sounded a note of caution even as she noted the spreading gains from AI, saying the technology’s rollout and its economic effects are still uncertain. She mentioned financial stability risks, alluding to what many investors and analysts see as a bubble in AI-related firms’ soaring stocks and expanding borrowing.

She warned against complacency from policymakers too eager to put all their eggs in the AI basket. Already, many economists say countries in Asia, above all China, are too dependent on exports and not enough on internal sources of growth such as consumption to power their economies.

“Growth is becoming much more narrow,” said Max Zenglein, Asia Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board, an economic research group. That is a risk, he said, as after a spell of breakneck growth in AI demand “we are reaching a point where at least we are going to see a slowdown.”