CIA: Putin Believes US Weakened By Iran War, Less Able To Intervene In Ukraine

This is a curious situation. Putin appears to be correct that the US has foolishly and wastefully expended too much of its strategic arsenal in attacking Iran, which remains unbowed. 

But to make the leap from that to assuming he can then attack Europe at will seems foolhardy for two primary reasons. First, even though he apparently continues to believe they will quail at the threat of Russian aggression, NATO and Europe have doubled down in their defense of Ukraine, largely without Trump administration support. And secondly, the abject failure of the Russian military to subdue Ukraine suggests that should he be foolish enough to attack one of the Baltic states or Poland or Germany, that a) Europe would back down and b) that his troops are capable of prevailing. This European saber-rattling may be intended mostly to keep his own oligarchs and military in line, but it is likely that he will continue to sabotage European defense interests as well as launch air and sea provocations to keep the world guessing. What is clear is that any hint of accomodation on his part will result in his removal and death by his own people. JL

Warren Strobel reports in the Washington Post:

CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow this week was preceded by fresh U.S. intelligence indicating the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war, offering Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe. The CIA chief warned Moscow against ramping up its war against Ukraine, arguing such a move would backfire. U.S. military stockpiles of key weapons have been severely depleted, including Patriot and other air-defense platforms, as well as cruise missiles and the short-range Army Tactical Missile, which is also in demand in Ukraine. Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was "about Putin assessing we are depleted and can’t intervene.”

CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s mysterious trip to Moscow this week was preceded by fresh U.S. intelligence indicating that the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war, offering Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The details of Ratcliffe’s talks with his Russian counterpart remain secret, but one of the people told The Washington Post that the CIA chief warned Moscow against ramping up its war against Ukraine, arguing that such a move would backfire. This person and others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the subject’s sensitivity. 

Ratcliffe flew to Moscow on Tuesday, the first known visit there by a CIA director since late 2021, when President Joe Biden’s spy chief, William J. Burns, attempted to sway the Kremlin from an invasion of Ukraine.

Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, confirmed the Ratcliffe conversations, saying there was “nothing unusual” about the meetings.

Ratcliffe did not meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the Kremlin.

The CIA and the White House declined to comment on Ratcliffe’s trip.

President Donald Trump on Thursday downplayed concerns that Putin would order an attack on U.S. allies in Europe. “He’s not going to be attacking a NATO territory,” said Trump, who brushed off a question about the purpose of Ratcliffe’s trip.

The classified intelligence suggesting that Putin sees the U.S. as weakened by the six-month-old war in Iran follows reports of diminished troop readiness and munitions shortfalls as a result of the extended campaign against Tehran.

U.S. military stockpiles of key weapons have been severely depleted, including Patriot and other air-defense platforms, as well as sophisticated offensive weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles and the short-range Army Tactical Missile System, which is also in demand in Ukraine. The Post previously reported that the U.S. has lost roughly a quarter of its Reaper drones, which cost between $30 million and $50 million apiece and are used for surveillance and targeting.

The weapons shortages have alarmed allies in Asia, raising questions about Washington’s ability to deter a potential confrontation with China.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other administration officials have publicly denied that there are serious munitions shortages, even as they have pressed arms producers to rapidly build more weapons.

The people familiar with intelligence collection on Putin’s assessment of the U.S. strategic position due to the Iran war did not provide more detail on how it was collected or how confident CIA analysts are about its accuracy. Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow on Tuesday morning local time aboard a C-17A military transport aircraft, after a stop in Riga, the Latvian capital. A video shared on social media showed a motorcade of cars, some with diplomatic plates, driving through central Moscow. The C-17A took off from Moscow at 5:30 p.m., about 8½ hours after it landed, tracking data shows.

 

With the ground war in Ukraine largely stalemated, Moscow and Kyiv have launched increasingly devastating strikes on each other’s territory. Ukraine has hit high-profile targets, frequently aiming at key nodes of Russia’s energy industry and online commerce. Moscow, meanwhile, continues to bombard civilian targets like apartment blocks as well as industrial infrastructure and power plants throughout Ukraine. Russia has taken advantage of Ukraine’s dwindling stockpile of air defense interceptors, which have been supplied by the United States. European countries have pledged to supply Kyiv with missile interceptors, but many will not arrive until next year.

Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was “less about Putin being in a corner” because his army has failed to break a stalemate on the Ukraine battlefield “and more because Russia assesses we are depleted and can’t intervene,” one of the people familiar said.

Ratcliffe told Russian officials that if Putin significantly escalated the war in Ukraine, it would push Trump toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, this person said.

As the war in Ukraine drags through its fifth year, Europe has been hit by hybrid warfare attacks, including an attempted drone strike at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, that many analysts and some governments say appear to be the work of Russia.

NATO countries in Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltic nations, have voiced alarm that Putin might step up pressure or authorize increasingly provocative incursions, building on airspace violations and apparently errant drones.