Fortress Belt Capture By Russians This Year Deemed "Extremely Unrealistic"

Despite Putin's prioritizing the capture of Ukraine's Fortress Belt by the end of 2026, objective analysts believe that goal is 'extremely unrealistic' due to the Russian military's 'insufficient rate of advance' so far this year.

That miniscule advance rate has been imposed by strong Ukrainian defense, which has caused massive casualties and logistical breakdowns that are exacerbated by Russia's own ongoing recruitment and supply difficulties. JL

The New Voice of Ukraine reports:

Russian forces ability to capture the entire Donbas by the end of the year remains “extremely unrealistic.” Russia’s monthly rate of advance was higher in July than in June but remained insufficient to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by Putin’s new deadline of Dec. 31, 2026 despite the deployment of 'elite' airborne and naval infantry units. It as extremely unlikely that Russian forces would capture the Donbas fortress belt - comprising Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - in the near future, if they are capable of doing so at all.

Russian forces have prioritized offensives toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillia in an effort to encircle Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the southwest, but capturing the entire Donbas by the end of the year remains “extremely unrealistic,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its Aug. 7 analysis.

ISW examined an audio recording published by the Kremlin that purportedly captured a conversation between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Col. Abdulaziz Shikhabidov, commander of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division of Russia’s Airborne Forces.

Multiple Russian sources have reported that Shikhabidov was killed in May 2025 and that Denys Shishov currently commands the division. 

Putin does not identify the commander by name during the conversation, casting further doubt on the recording’s authenticity, ISW said.

The man identified as “Col. Shikhabidov” claimed that units from his division had captured Pokrovsk, Hryshyne, Novooleksandrivka and other settlements, and said the objectives and deadlines set by Putin were “realistic.”

Photo: ISW

ISW assessed that Putin’s conversation with a commander of a unit operating in the Dobropillia direction indicates that the sector is a priority for Russian forces.

The Russian military frequently deploys what it considers “elite” Airborne Forces and naval infantry units to key areas of the front, the analysts noted.

Putin said during the conversation that the division had advanced faster than any other Russian units operating in the area.

Russian forces are likely to intensify offensive operations in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk directions in an attempt to encircle Ukraine’s fortress belt from the southwestern flank, ISW said.

The timeline for completing such a large-scale encirclement, however, remains highly unrealistic.

Russian forces lost 2.23 square kilometers, or about 0.9 square miles, of territory near Dobropillia in June 2026 before advancing 34.67 square kilometers, or roughly 13.4 square miles, there in July, according to ISW.

Near Pokrovsk, Russian forces lost 3.12 square kilometers, or about 1.2 square miles, in June before advancing 45.96 square kilometers, or around 17.7 square miles, in July, including gains northeast of Dobropillia.

Russia’s monthly rate of advance was higher in July than in June but remained insufficient to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by Putin’s new deadline of Dec. 31, 2026, ISW said.

The analysts described it as extremely unlikely that Russian forces would capture the Donbas fortress belt — comprising Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — in the near future, if they are capable of doing so at all.

In late July, Ukraine’s Rubizh National Guard Brigade said Russian forces were stepping up preparations for renewed offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction, with advancing toward Dobropillia remaining one of their main objectives.