Kremlin Coup Fears Rise As Putin-Commanded National Guard Receive Tanks

Russia's National Guard, which includes the country's Interior Ministry special forces units and its riot police, reports directly to Putin. It received, for the first time, tanks and other armored vehicles which, one might argue, are sorely needed at the front despite their vulnerability to drones. 

The logical explanation for this deployment is not that the Rosgvardia, as they are known, are going to be sent to fight Ukraine, but that the Kremlin is preparing to deal with any threat that increasingly disaffected army units may pose to the current leadership. JL

Nadin Brzezinki reports:

The Putin regime fears a coup. The Russian National Guard's role has expanded. It will now be tasked with developing and implementing state policy, including forecasting military threats, potential future conflicts and preparing proposals for strategic planning documents. It will be led by Viktor Zolotov, 72, a longtime Putin ally who served as the president’s chief bodyguard during his first two presidential terms and while he was prime minister from 2000 to 2013. Rosgvardia started receiving its first tank units last year. It has also taken control of the Interior Ministry’s Grom special forces unit in addition to its existing SOBR and OMON riot police units. So, this is Putin’s praetorian guard. And given this internal police is also getting armor, never mind the army needs those tanks on the front lines, this is preparation to fight the army. 

We need to acknowledge that the Russia-Ukraine War started in 2014. However, this phase is four years old. And Russia has seen more casualties than in any other conflict since the Second World War. And today we have had more noise signals that things are fracturing inside the Federation. This is big, given that they took Telegram away from the troops at the front. And it speaks, accidentally, to the pressures inside the Federation:

“A state that fears its own people”. Durov linked the criminal case against him to the Russian authorities’ desire to restrict freedom of speech

The founder of Telegram, Pavel Durov, linked the criminal case against him in Russia for “assisting terrorist activities” to the Russian authorities’ desire to restrict freedom of speech in the country. He published a corresponding comment on his Telegram channel.

“Russia has initiated a criminal case against me for ‘aiding terrorism’. Every day, the authorities come up with new pretexts to restrict Russians’ access to Telegram, as they strive to suppress the right to privacy and freedom of speech. It’s a sad spectacle — a state that fears its own people”, wrote Durov.

So now we are not just talking about blocking Telegram. We are talking about pursuing a legal case against the owner. And that is what closed societies do. It also tells us that they fear a revolt. And let me show you this post for evidence, as well as Intel Slava. Remember, he is part of the Z-Blogger community. They’re also making money on Telegram. They are raising money for the troops. Those same troops use it to direct drone operators on the front lines.

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The key words here are that the regime fears a coup. They added the beauty of saying foreign governments, because that is part of their eternal victim mode. However, here is the post from Intel Slava, and while repeating some of the Moscow Times, I add it for the tea leaves reading exercise. It is also Durov’s full statement.

⚡️Pavel Durov’s statement:

“Russia has launched a criminal case against me for ‘aiding terrorism’. Every day, the authorities invent new pretexts to restrict Russians’ access to Telegram, seeking to suppress the right to privacy and freedom of speech. It’s a sad spectacle of a state that is afraid of its own people. 🤦‍♂️”

That he quoted Durov in full is of interest. The Moscow Times did not. And the Z-Bloggers are not precisely in favor of speech for anybody but maybe themselves. Though both are correct, the state fears its own people. It is the clearest signal that something might be cooking inside Russia.

So let’s look at something else. The Russian National Guard, whose commander is Vladimir Putin, the only person above him. This is Viktor Zolotov, who is a crony of Putin. And their role has expanded. This is per the Moscow Times:

It will also be tasked with developing and implementing state policy within its remit, including forecasting and assessing military threats and potential future conflicts and preparing proposals for strategic planning documents.

The headquarters will be led by Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov, 72, a longtime Putin ally who served as the president’s chief bodyguard during his first two presidential terms and while he was prime minister from 2000 to 2013.

Rosgvardia under Zolotov started receiving its first tank units last year.

It has also taken control of the Interior Ministry’s Grom special forces unit in addition to its existing SOBR and OMON riot police units.

So, at this point, this is Putin’s praetorian guard. And given this internal police is also getting armor, never mind the army needs those tanks on the front lines, this is preparation to fight the army. We also know that at this point, we also know that the police are not covering large swaths of Russia because they don’t have enough people.

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Here is another signal that the ice is breaking. Ukraine retook 400 square kilometers from Russia. I don’t think we will see a front collapse, but we were all surprised in 2023. So I don’t fully discount it. And if that happens, events already ongoing in Russia will likely accelerate. And something is going on because we are back to the customary nuclear threats. Now, Kyiv is getting a nuke from France and England. Yes, the Brits already denied this.

This is one of the old threats that the Russians pull every time they are facing defeat. And I would argue that they have already suffered a strategic defeat. But now the ice continues to crack as they face internal dynamics of their own making.

Then there is this statement from President Volodomyr Zelensky:

Zelenskyy published an appeal to Ukrainians on the fourth anniversary of the start of the full-scale war. In the video, he showed the same bunker on the bank that no one had ever shown before.

‼️ Zelensky: Today marks exactly four years since Putin started his three-day push to take Kyiv. And that says a great deal about our resistance, about how Ukraine has fought all this time. Behind those words stand millions of our people, immense courage, incredibly hard work, endurance, and the long path Ukraine has been pursuing since February 24.

Looking back at the beginning of the invasion and reflecting on today, we have every right to say: we have defended our independence, we have not lost our statehood; Putin has not achieved his goals. He has not broken Ukrainians; he has not won this war. We have preserved Ukraine, and we will do everything to secure peace and justice. Glory to Ukraine!

Remember, Russian troops took dress uniforms with them. They made dinner reservations in Kyiv. They were proof that they would gain control of the capital and, by extension, the rest of the country. This was their nationalist ideology that sees Ukrainians as inferior people and, by extension, inferior fighters.

We know that Ukraine has held and slowed the Russians to the point that this is, for all intents and purposes, a statement. And now Russia is hurting its own troops by taking away their eyes and ears in the form of Telegram. So we are back to nuclear threats. And if you were thinking, what else can they do? Here you go:

Russia’s military intelligence has opened a channel for communication with like-minded people abroad🦇

❗️Remember: Russia needs your help. Even if you’re far beyond its borders.

🗣If you’re ready to contribute to the fight against puppet regimes oppressing their own people to please their overseas masters — your voice will be heard.

🇺🇦If you’re in a territory controlled by the criminal Kiev regime and want to provide the Russian army with any possible assistance in the fight against Nazis, write to the feedback bot.

ℹ️ Information of value to military intelligence will be paid 💵

👉A special Telegram bot has been created for contact: @Russian_GRU_bot

🤝Full confidentiality and security are guaranteed. This team knows how to protect their own.

These old games are back. We do the same to be brutal. But this is all of Western Europe and the United States. They are using Telegram for this because they are not going to close it abroad, not that they could. But it betrays how much of this is about fearing processes that are already underway.

Remember, the Russian Empire collapsed in 1917 into a bloody civil war. It came close to doing this in 1905. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1989, and it was gone in December of 1991. So when people say it cannot happen, history has a different prescription. And countries that have had a civil war or two are more at risk. So we are probably heading to another era of Russian Troubles. And finally, there is this, again via the Moscow Times, regarding their capacity to launch a spring offensive:

Huge losses on the front will prevent Russia from launching a major offensive in the coming months

The fifth year of the war unleashed by Vladimir Putin is beginning, and he is running out of soldiers to continue it. Putin’s generals are not even thinking of changing their long-chosen strategy — to keep sending soldiers “to the assault”; at the same time, Ukrainian defenders are increasingly effectively carrying out the task of destroying the attackers. As a result, the Russian army’s losses on the battlefield have exceeded the number of soldiers recruited under contract for three consecutive months, Bloomberg was told by Western officials and military personnel.

This, in their estimation, will undermine Putin’s ability to launch a major offensive in the coming months. Meanwhile, his intransigence in the US-initiated negotiations on ceasing hostilities was based on the assumption that the army was continuing to successfully advance in Ukraine, whose defensive positions would weaken, NATO intelligence officers previously said.

So at this point, the Russian army may have fully culminated. And Putin likely knows this. But the consequences of this will hit inside Russia in ways that we can predict from Russian history. The short of this is that Putin will lose all he has. How long will this last? This is a good question. But we are now closer to the end of this story than we were even three months ago. The noise signals are speaking to this. I cannot wait for Swan Lake, especially the black swan dance.