Putin's Command Change Won't Produce Results As War Continues To Favor Ukraine

Putin keeps shuffling commanders in hopes that this tactical game playing will somehow produce a better result when the real problem is his strategic mismanagement. 

There can be no significant change in Russia's military effectiveness on the battlefield because the Kremlin's war fighting and military organization are fatally flawed by Putin's primary concern, which is holding on to power, not winning the war he initiated. There is little the new commanders can do that their predecessors have not already tried. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

The ground war continues to favor Ukraine's defense. Putin's military management reshuffle reflects his wanting to inject new ideas and energy into his war against Ukraine while messaging that those responsible for attacks against Russia’are being moved on. None of these leadership changes are likely to result in any significant change in the effectiveness of Russian military forces. The underlying strategy of Russia’s war against Ukraine is so poor, and Ukraine’s military effectiveness is continuing to improve, so there is little that these military leaders will be able to do to change the situation. Putin’s dilemma will become more acute as Ukraine’s strikes expand their reach and capacity. Crimea and the Russian interior are no longer separate problems but a single, unified target set for the Ukrainians.

The ground war remains a grinding but dynamic contest that continues to favour Ukraine’s defence. Russia’s territorial gains over the four weeks to 4 August added up to between 13 and 24 square miles, depending on whether figures from DeepState or ISW mapping are used.

Source: Russia Matters

Russia’s main effort remains Pokrovsk and Dobropillya. It is here that Russian ground forces appear to be continuing their attempt to achieve an envelopment of eastern Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.

Ukrainian Command Structure. Ukraine’s command structure has seen more changes this week. General Mykhailo Drapaty, appointed commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in late July, named General Serhii Sobko, a 42-year-old Hero of Ukraine who led Kyiv’s territorial defence in 2022, as his deputy on 6 August. Sobko had been commanding the 11th Army Corps, and his appointment has been welcomed by prominent Ukrainian military commentators as a sign of genuine reform.

Russian Reshuffle. On 5 August, President Putin announced a significant reshuffle of Russia’s senior military leadership, part of what the Kremlin describes as refinement of the Defence Ministry’s structure due to the war’s lessons. Colonel General Denis Lyamin now leads Russia’s Unmanned Systems Forces. Colonel General Andrei Ivanayev takes over the “Center” grouping tasked with capturing the whole of eastern Donetsk, while Lieutenant General Pyotr Bolgarev takes the “East” grouping.

The reshuffle is perhaps best read as Putin wanting to inject new ideas and energy into his war against Ukraine while also messaging that those ‘responsible for attacks against Russia’ are being moved on. None of these leadership changes are likely to result in any significant change in the effectiveness of Russian military forces. The underlying strategy of Russia’s war against Ukraine is so poor, and Ukraine’s military effectiveness is continuing to improve, so there is little that these military leaders will be able to do to change the situation.

Ukraine Assessment

Russia continues to face a difficult strategic dilemma in the Black Sea theatre, one that its nightly missile attacks on Ukrainian cities are unlikely to resolve. Crimea has been the bedrock of Russia’s Ukraine strategy since 2014, hosting the Black Sea Fleet, air defence networks and a logistics hub feeding the entire southern front.

Ukraine’s 2026 integrated campaign, switching off Crimea’s power, striking its bridges, transport and drone infrastructure, and hunting shipping in the Azov and Black Seas, has turned Russia’s southern foundation into a strategic liability. Crimea is now drawing more air defence and naval assets at exactly the same time as Ukraine’s long-range strikes into the Russian heartland, against refineries, energy infrastructure and manufacturing hubs, are demanding those same assets to the north.

Russia cannot adequately defend both without accepting greater risk somewhere else. In the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s president has referred to this Russian dilemma:

The Russians have concentrated three rings of air defense around Moscow. To create such a strong defensive shield, they had to pull all their air defense systems from every corner of their vast territory.

This is the brutal calculus that is part of the rationale behind this week’s Russian military leadership reshuffle. Putin’s dilemma here will become more acute as Ukraine’s strike forces continue to expand their reach and capacity. Crimea and the Russian interior are no longer separate problems for Russian planners to solve sequentially. They are a single, unified target set for the Ukrainians.