Revealing Parity, Ukraine, Russian Post Similar Gains For July

Ukraine made more gains than Russia in most of April, May and June. In July, the two sides achieved parity, with similar levels of territorial gains, but in different sectors of the front. 

The key revelation is that Russia, despite its advantages, cannot do more than the Ukrainians, let alone muster the forces to make a breakthrough anywhere along the line of battle. JL

The New Voice of Ukraine reports:

In recent weeks, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been showing similar battlefield gains across different segments of the frontline. June statistics on occupied and recaptured territory showed an advantage for Ukrainian forces, who stopped active Russian advances. Russian forces continued to infiltrate forward and create false visual evidence that they had seized or secured territory. "Right now, on advances, we have parity." The key point is that the Russians can no longer launch large, massed advances to seize territory the way it did before — gains of 500, 300, 200 or even 100 square kilometers.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been showing similar battlefield gains across different segments of the frontline, Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder and analyst for the OSINT project DeepState, told NV Radio on Aug. 5.

Pohorilyi said DeepState often reports advances with a delay because the organization must respect OPSEC rules set by Ukrainian command.

"When the enemy advances, we try to work more promptly in that direction, because it's necessary to show the war as it is," he said.

"And to speak about the numbers — it's really hard to calculate the dynamics right now." 

He said June statistics on occupied and recaptured territory showed an advantage for Ukrainian forces, who managed to stop active Russian advances. Still, he said, Russian forces continued to infiltrate forward and create false visual evidence that they had seized or secured territory.

"Ukrainian forces have been working the same way, but you also need to be measured about this,” Pohorilyi said.

“It's not the 470 kilometers that was talked about and never shown, but there are certain successes on sections of the front where Ukrainian forces, using tactical advantage and enemy weaknesses, are regaining and trying to improve their positions."

Pohorilyi summed up that it is too early to draw conclusions about Russian gains because Ukrainian successes are still being verified and must be cleared for publication.

"So the most objective way to put it is: right now, on advances, we have parity," he said.

He added that the key point is that the enemy can no longer launch large, massed advances to seize territory the way it did before — gains of 500, 300, 200 or even 100 square kilometers. The fighting has shifted, he said, to strikes on logistics, concentrations and positions that complicate rotations and resupply, though Russian forces continue some assault operations.