Russia Usually Gains Ground In Summer. This Year They Have Lost It

Since the Russians invaded Ukraine in 2022, they have usually succeeded in capturing territory during the summer months. Not this year. 

In the past month, in particular, the Russians have lost ground to Ukrainian forces. And the Kremlin's troops have suffered those losses while enduring increasing casualties. Putin continues to waste resources without any evidence of strategic benefit. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Over the past month, Russian operations have not gained ground but lost it. The reporting of Deepstate and ISW, shows that Russia lost between 2 and 12 square miles in the period since 21 July this year. This occurs at a time of the year that has, in the past two years, been one of Russia’s most successful months for capturing Ukrainian territory. And, for four of the past five months, Russia has lost ground in Ukraine while suffering increasing monthly casualty figures. Russia's ground offensives continue to grind away, wasting enormous numbers of troops for very minimal gains

Russia’s ground offensives continue to grind away, wasting enormous numbers of troops for very minimal gains in territory. The clear main effort for the Russians, as it has been since 2023, is the seizure of territory in the Donbas. In particular, the seizure of the Fortress Belt in eastern Ukraine remains the focus of Russian ground combat operations.

Graph: Russia Matters

Over the past month, Russian operations have not gained ground but lost it. The reporting of Deepstate and ISW, in the latest Russia Matters update, shows that Russia lost between 2 and 12 square miles in the period since 21 July this year. This occurs at a time of the year that has, in the past two years, been one of Russia’s most successful months for capturing Ukrainian territory. And, for four of the past five months, Russia has lost ground in Ukraine while suffering increasing monthly casualty figures.

Wrapping up the coverage of the war on the ground, this week Euromaidan published a report on how Russia continues to attempt to advance on and capture the Ukrainian city of Lyman. This city, viewed by the Russians as a “gateway to the fortress belt cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk” continues to hold out against Russian attacks. Russia has sought to capture Lyman for well over a year, but like most other parts of the frontline, its operations on this axis of advance have remained slow and extraordinarily costly in Russian casualties.