Russia's Summer Offensive "Failed To Make Any Operationally Significant Gains"

The Russian rate of advance for its spring-summer offensive is so low that it has to be measured in footpace, as opposed to measures by which modern war is typically fought. And, even by that count, Russia is suffering increasing casualties, with July being the highest loss rate Russia has suffered this year. Among other missed deadlines, the Russians have yet to take Kostiantynivka, despite repeated Kremlin claims that they have done so 

The Kremlin's forces have failed to make any operationally significant gains, which means that its troops are moving too slowly to achieve any of its stated objectives by the end of this calendar year. The implication is that despite the Kremlin's desperate claims, the Russians are, once again, incapable of delivering the results for which they wish. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low in the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains. The Russians suffered the highest casualty rate of 2026 in July, paying an increasingly high price for no increase in the rate of advance, which has not changed significantly since February 2026. Russia’s increased infiltrations have not resulted in the seizure of Kostyantynivka or achievement of operationally significant objectives. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks, Ukraine’s intermediate range strike campaign, and Ukrainian drone dominance continue to constrain Russia’s rate of advance and ability to field mechanized vehicles. Even the Kremlin’s most exaggerated claims do not have Russian forces advancing faster than footpace, a rate far slower than the Kremlin would need to collapse Ukrainian lines and seize areas Moscow aims to capture by the end of 2026.

The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low two and a half months into the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have advanced in 37.85 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine (smaller than the area of Manhattan) in July 2026 for an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day. Russia’s monthly rate of advance has not changed significantly since February 2026, prior to the start of its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which began in mid-March 2026.[1] Russian forces have infiltrated into more territory in July 2026 than in recent months, advancing or infiltrating into about 121.56 square kilometers of territory in all. Even the Russian rate of advance and infiltration in July 2026 is a fraction of Russia’s rate of advance in July 2025, when Russian forces seized 455.74 square kilometers. Russian forces leaned into conducting additional infiltration missions into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast in July 2026, but Russia’s increased infiltrations have not resulted in the seizure of Kostyantynivka or the achievement of any operationally significant objectives.[2] The Russian monthly rate of advance in 2026 has been much lower than Russia’s rate of advance during the same period in 2025, even when including infiltrations.

Continued Ukrainian counterattacks, Ukraine’s intermediate range strike campaign, and Ukrainian drone dominance continue to constrain Russia’s rate of advance and ability to field mechanized vehicles. Russian forces have conducted a few mechanized assaults in isolated areas of the theater in July 2026, but these assaults did not result in meaningful gains.[3] The Kremlin has been optimizing the Russian military for positional warfare rather than maneuver warfare for several years, but Ukrainian adaptations are significantly slowing Russian advances in 2026 compared with previous years.[4] There is no indication that Russian forces will be able to accelerate their advances dramatically or restore maneuver to the battlefield at this time.

Russian forces reportedly suffered the highest casualty rate of 2026 thus far in July, paying an increasingly high price for no significant increase in the rate of advance — despite the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to deny this fact. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 1 that Russian forces suffered 42,860 casualties in July 2026, a new monthly high for the war.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff’s data indicates that Russian casualties have been steadily increasing since February 2026, when Russian forces suffered 26,090 casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on July 31 that Russian forces have suffered almost 700,000 killed in action (KIA) and about 1.6 million total casualties since February 2022.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff’s casualty rates indicate that Russian forces suffered an average of 353 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized or infiltrated in July 2026, and a staggering 1,132 casualties per square kilometer seized.

The Kremlin is desperately attempting to disguise its slow rate of advance in Ukraine through exaggerated claims of advance, but even Moscow’s claimed rate of advance is only about footpace. Russian forces have advanced, infiltrated, or claimed to have advanced in 18.49 square kilometers per day in July 2026. The Kremlin and senior Russian military command have leaned into their cognitive warfare campaign, attempting to falsely show that Russian forces are advancing in all sectors of the front, that Ukrainian lines are collapsing, and that the West should abandon Ukraine as a hopeless cause.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Kremlin newswire TASS each made exaggerated claims on July 31 about the number of settlements that Russian forces allegedly seized in July 2026 as part of this informational effort.[8] This Russian informational effort also likely aims to convince Russians that the sacrifices they are making for the war, including the staggering casualty rates, economic burden, Ukrainian strikes in Russia, and Kremlin censorship measures, are worth it.[9] But even the Kremlin’s most extensive claims do not have Russian forces advancing faster than footpace, a rate of advance far slower than the Kremlin would need to collapse Ukrainian lines and rapidly seize the areas Moscow reportedly aims to capture by the end of 2026.