Half Of Russia's North Korean Missiles Explode In Mid-Air, Fail To Reach Ukraine

A 50% failure rate is not considered productive...JL 

Tom Balmforth and David Gaultier-Villars report in Reuters:

Ukrainian state prosecutors have examined debris from 21 of 50 North Korean ballistic missiles launched by Russia between late December and late February. "Half of the North Korean missiles lost their programmed trajectories and exploded in the air; in such cases the debris was not recovered." Hwasong-11 missiles, which are  called KN-23 in the West, were identified by looking at their flight trajectories, speed and launch sites. The last recorded use of a KN-23 was on Feb. 27. The total number of launches tallied with intelligence showing North Korea delivered 50 ballistic missiles to Russia.

AI 'Digital Twins' Are Replacing Focus Groups To Predict Consumer Buying Behavior

Who needs humans when algorithms can replicate the data that more accurately predicts their purchase preference decisions? JL 

Isabelle Bousquette reports in the Wall Street Journal:

AI can take data on a person’s individual characteristics—such as appearance, shopping preferences and health profile—then predict how they would look in an item of clothing, how they would answer a question or be affected by a disease. This AI content, referred to as a person’s digital twin, allows companies to ask AI focus-group questions, generate digital twins of people based on their health data to predict how disease might progress for those individuals or generate answers to questions like whether a female in her 30s would pay a 10% increase on a streaming service subscription.

Renewed US And NATO Military Aid Has Already Begun To Arrive For Ukrainian Units

There are growing reports that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the front line. Delivery of new ammunition and weapons systems is one big part of that reason. 

Renewed aid was already prepositioned at NATO deports in Europe. Some of that has already arrived in Ukraine and a significant amount is now making its way there. The Russians are desperately attempting to increase the tempo their attacks in hopes of making gains before the new aid arrives, but it appears they were caught off guard by the aid bill's passage, had not intended to be attacking at this time and do not have sufficient forces or equipment to make strategic gains. JL 

Lara Jakes and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Last Sunday, Ukraine received anti-armor rockets, missiles and 155-millimeter artillery shells. It was the first installment from the $61 billion in military aid approved four days earlier. A second batch arrived on Monday. And a fresh supply of Patriot missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on Tuesday. Over the last week, planes, trains and trucks have arrived at NATO depots in Europe carrying ammunition and weapons to be shipped to Ukraine. It can take as little as a few days for U.S. military logistics in Germany to coordinate delivery. Officials do not believe Russia has the forces to make a major push before May 9. “I don’t think the Russians intended to make the big push now, but they're rushing before the influx of renewed munitions reach the front to make the difference,”

Ukraine Drone Boats Now Pack SAMs To Shoot Down Russian Aircraft

The hunted becomes the hunter. Again. 

Ukrainian drone boats can now remotely target and shoot down Russian planes and helicopters searching for them as they home in on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships. The missiles sense heat sources and do not require launch guidance, making them impervious to Russian jamming. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Ukrainian drone boats are packing R-73 surface-to-air missiles and already firing at Russian aircraft. An R-73’s seeker is sensitive to heat sources such as an aircraft engine; it doesn’t need telemetry from the launching vehicle for guidance. There’s a chance the air-defense USVs have already scored their first aerial kill. At least one, and possibly two, Russian helicopters got into trouble over the Black Sea on April 9 and 10.

Ukrainian Counterattacks At Bakhmut Disrupt Russian Plans, Retake Trenches

Ukrainian forces are counterattacking Russian units in several areas of the extended front, especially in the Bakhmut sector. 

This has not only retaken ground but has disrupted the Russian offensive operations aimed at Chasiv Yar. JL 

Euromaidan Press reports:

On the Bakhmut front, south of Ivanivske, Ukrainians conducted a series of counterattacks disrupting Russian offensive efforts. Extensive use of FPV drones allowed Ukraine's 92nd Assault Brigade to suppress Russian firing positions which set the ground for a successful counter-attack to retake the initiative and conduct the counterattack. A column of  seven infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed. Russian reinforcements were (also) destroyed starving the Russian forces of ammo and supplies. The bottleneck through which Russian forces have to pass is much tighter. This endangers Russian offensive efforts south of Chasiv Yar for which the village is a vital staging area.

The Reasons Ukraine Is Being Advised To Seize the Battlefield Initiative In 2024

The conventional wisdom from the US and others is that Ukraine should fight an attritional defensive battle against Russia for the remainder of 2024 and then resume counterattacking in 2025. 

But there is a growing chorus arguing for more aggressive counteroffensive action in 2024 since Russia has failed to exploit Ukraine's weakness in ammunition and manpower so far this year, suggesting that Russia may be weaker than believed so vulnerable now and that waiting too long might allow it grow stronger. JL  

Olha Hlushchenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

US officials have indicated support for new Ukrainian counteroffensives in 2025, although the Institute for the Study of War believes Ukraine should seize the initiative on the battlefield in 2024 after US security assistance reaches the front. The arrival of US military aid to Ukraine will allow Ukrainian forces to stabilise the line and seize the initiative. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Ukraine plans to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 aimed at retaking Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory after US military aid helps to halt further Russian advances in 2024. (But) "external efforts to impose a timeline on Ukrainian counteroffensives ignore the reality of the battlefield," the ISW stressed.

Russia Might Have Defeated Ukraine - If It Followed Its Own Military Manual

A major reason why Russian forces have significantly underperformed against Ukraine is that Kremlin political pressure has forced them to ignore their own military tactical operations manual. 

This has led to a wide variety of failures which include lack of preparation and planning, poor intelligence, understaffing to save money (or hide corruption) and leadership which defers to unrealistic political priorities. This has led to massive casualties and a failure to achieve goals. JL

Michael Peck reports in Business Insider:

Russian troops have often fought poorly in the Ukraine war (because) they are not following their own playbook. A lot of their mistakes were failures to follow doctrinal guidance that is there for good reason. These were pretty basic. "Instead of rapid and well-coordinated maneuvers with its once-vaunted Aerospace Forces, attacks rely on obliterating Ukrainian defenses with artillery or glide bombs, or swamping them with large numbers of freed convicts and other "disposable infantry. (But) we underrate how much damage the Ukrainians did against Russian military capability. The Russians were terribly wrong-footed by their leadership."