The Russian Army Is Failing Badly This Summer - And That Will Not Change

The adjectives being used to describe Russian military efforts in Ukraine this summer do not inspire hope: insufficient, extremely unlikely, unrealistic and, repeatedly, failure, failed, failing.

The harsh reality is that Russia has no answers to Ukrainian strategy and tactics. Its attacks on civilian targets have demonstrated no structural impact on Ukrainian war making capabilities or morale and Russian leadership is increasingly seen as ineffective and out of touch. Putin reportedly had a widely publicized call with the commander of Russian airborne forces to 'demonstrate' that he is in control after being mocked for announcing the capture of several cities which turned out to still be in Ukrainian hands. The question is not if, but how and when he will be forced to seek some sort of denoument. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Russian military is still failing badly this summer—and that will not change. On the battlefield, the basics favor the Ukrainian strategy of causing massive Russian casualties while saving their own lives. And the data supports this. The Russian summer offensive (it is already into August—so much of the summer is gone) shows Russian advances are miniscule, far below the small advances of 2025, and Russian casualties are now more than 40,000 a month. So the Russian army is struggling, suffering massive losses and its logistic situation is getting worse.

On the battlefield, the basics of the situation still favor the Ukrainian strategy of causing massive Russian casualties while saving their own lives (which hopefully is even gaining ground under General Drapatyi). And the data supports this. ISW’s most recent update on the Russian summer offensive (it is already into August—so much of the summer is gone) shows Russian advances are miniscule, far below the small advances of 2025, and Russian casualties are now more than 40,000 a month. It is Russia that is still struggling to generate soldiers to replace losses—and that means that the idea of Russia having a societal wide mobilization is being discussed more and more.

Ukrainian mid-range strike continues to hammer Russian logistics in occupied Ukraine. The Ukrainians seem to have “fire control” now on the highway into Crimea. So the Russian army is struggling, suffering massive losses and its logistic situation is getting worse, not better.

In long range strike, when Ukraine focusses on refineries, they can still do great damage. That means that Russia is still going to generate less income going forward and that will hurt the Russian war machine.

So yes, Ukraine is going to suffer a great deal in the coming months through civilian losses and some successful Russian strategic attacks—thanks in part to how the USA has conned the Ukrainians. That is undeniable. However, the Russian military is still failing badly this summer—and that will not change.