"Meatgrinder With Kremlin Providing the Meat" As Russian Pressure Shrinks

Reports across all sectors of the front reveal a uniform shrinking of Russian pressure on Ukrainian positions. This suggests both that the Kremlin is running low on resources - especially the manpower whose lives they so profligately disregard - and that the Ukrainian counteroffensives are so disrupting Russian plans that they are being forced on the defensive.

That the war has become 'a meatgrinder with the Kremlin providing the meat,' as a Ukrainian commander offered, is an indication that, on the frontline, the Russians no longer have the initiative, nor are their earlier conquests necessarily safe. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

The trend of fighting seems to be shrinking Russian pressure in almost all sectors. Based on the field descriptions this is the textbook “we’ve just about run out of men to send on attack” phase. This is the fifth (!) Russian summer offensive when we’ve seen this happen. In the Zaporizhzhia sector, attacks are still taking place but significantly decreasing and with less-numerous groups, by “about 40 percent.” In Pokrovsk - Dobropillia, the ratio of Ukrainians to Russians lost can be 1 to 60. The Russians are killed or wounded, do not gain ground. At Konstyantynivka, Russian attacks have fallen off to very little. And at Lyman, it’s official, 3rd Corps completed its counter-offensive liberating 10 villages and recapturing150 square kilometers of Russian territory. The war right now is running a meatgrinder with the Russians providing the meat. 

In general the trend of fighting seems to be shrinking Russian pressure in almost all sectors. Based on the field descriptions this is the textbook “we’ve just about run out of men to send on attack” phase. This is the fifth (!) Russian summer offensive when we’ve seen this happen. 

Zaporizhzhia sector  –  1st Assault Regiment commander Dmyrtro “Perun” Filatov gave a Monday interview to TV24 and he said that in his sector Russian attacks are falling off, and that it seems like troops are getting transferred out of this sector to other parts of the front. Attacks are still taking place but less often and with less-numerous groups. The term he used is “significantly decreasing.” The figure he used was “about 40 percent.” 

Filatov also confirmed a lot of the rumors and speculation we’ve heard about Rybne, in the Hulyaipole AO. The village was actually captured on July 30 by Ukrainian forces but it was three weeks before open sourcers confirmed its capture. According to Filatov the success was the result of a meticulous, long-term operation where the first step is cutting off supply to a targeted locality, then potential for reinforcement by infiltration, and then systematic, slow house-to-house clearing.

For those of you who like “maneuver warfare,” this is the template that the Ukrainians are using, if your country doesn’t or isn’t planning to, you are behind the curve.

 

This is a training image from 20th Brigade Liubart but I think still newsworthy, because this is a combat unit actually in a war, performing first aid training. (Photo: 20th Brigade Liubart) 

Elsewhere in the sector, this is from the Ukrainian milblogger Mashovets (who in turn is sometimes often the main source of “analysis” by some big name Western think tanks I could name), Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army has actually fallen back, having lost the village Myrne, and is trying to prevent the Ukrainians from pushing through a defense line built on the Vovcha River and the villages Komar and Perebudova. If the Ukrainians are not stopped, then Russian forces would be caught on the wrong side of the river, meaning the men might walk out but not their heavy equipment. Mashovets writes that even though elements of the much-battered 90th Tank Division have been committed to the area, it’s not clear the Russians can hold and if they can’t, then “the prospect is a collapse along the lower Mokri Yaly” River. But none of this is confirmed past a total AFU ban on ground reporting from the sector.

This map published on Wednesday by the OSINTer Vjesti shows well the Russian predicament around Komar: troops still in a village but meanwhile the Ukrainians hold the river crossings behind it. (Vjesti) 

Pokrovsk/Dobropillya  –  We were graced this week by a detailed interview with the chief of staff of Azov Brigade, which is of course the hardest-fighting regular unit in 1st Army Corps, and possibly in the entire AFU, this is the core Azov. His name is Lev “Horus” Pashko and according to him, the Russians are stopped cold, the war right now is running a meatgrinder with the Russians providing the meat. According to Pashko, 1st Brigade’s AO is Dobropillya, which Azov recaptured from the Russians last summer.

According to Pashko, Russia is still trying to push into this sector using numbers and accepting losses, and the ratio of Ukrainians to Russians in some areas can be 1 to 60. Thanks to open fields of fire and drones, he said, the Russians are all killed or wounded, they do not gain ground. Most of the soldiers doing the attacking are force-mobilized, i.e., they were civilians who got in trouble with the law or had money issues and signed a Russian army contract and wound up being sent against Ukrainian positions with little training. The quality of the Russian troops is, he said, extremely low.

The main method of Russian attacks is to probe for gaps in defenses and infiltrate without regard to future supply or means of retreat. They are ordered to raise flags at locations reached, there is no instruction on fighting Ukrainians. Pashko’s evaluation: “The deeper they go, the easier it is for our scouts and special forces to destroy them… They can capture a place that has already been completely destroyed, lose 140 soldiers in two weeks  –  and fine, they take it. They lost half a battalion, and we didn’t. 

BTW, not confirmed, but the German reporter Julian Röpcke this week reported Russian officers are sending their assault troops off with the extremely embellished  –  i.e. containing false information about what terrain is in Russian and what’s in Ukrainian hands  –  maps in hand. I hadn’t heard that before and generally reports are Russian troops find their way by being told to follow a drone or a road to an obvious location, there are no maps. But maybe that’s the case sometimes. As a result, according to Röpcke, Russian infiltration groups run headlong into solid Ukrainian positions right in the middle territory supposedly already captured by Russia.

Regarding personnel and organization, Pashko said that since Azov is National Guard, some of the reforms and new contracts are only now reaching the brigade. There is recruiting going on with men who joined for a year on the 18-24 terms, according to Pashko most intend to re-up. (Note: This should not be taken as an indicator for the entire AFU, unit morale and esprit, and also small unit commanders in Azov are exceptional). But deferrals and rotations are happening and a steady flow of replacements and reserves is building. 

For those of you with experience in NATO armies, this is nothing special. In the AFU this is a very big deal, steady personnel streams and even vaguely predictable company- and battalion-level soldier rotation, never mind something resembling reasonable career progression, is something the AFU has struggled with for pretty much for as long as Ukraine has existed.

Excellently-composed training image published by the Ukrainian special forces on Sunday, if they get tired of sneak-deaky operations some of them deffo could get jobs as news photogs. But for less money I think. (Photo: 144 Center SSO Ukraine)

Kostyantynivka  –  The Ukrainian 210th Assault Regiment has been deployed to the Kostyantynivka direction, apparently supporting the defense of the city’s western flank under the 19th Army Corps. Also moving into the sector is 46th Airmobile Brigade, a veteran outfit with a good combat reputation. This is allowing the 24th Mech Brigade, who have fought as long as any formation in the entire AFU, to get a break from duty in the line; they have been in this sector for close to a year.

Parallel with Ukrainian reinforcements/fresh troops flowing to Konstyantynivka, there are reports from several units in the area that the Russian attacks into the city have fallen off to very little. Some drone crews are complaining about the absence of targets.

Lyman sector  –  It’s official, the AFU finally announced it, meaning 3rd Corps, had completed a slow counter-offensive over the past three months that liberated 10 villages and recaptured about 150 square kilometers of Russian territory. This had been an open secret for much of August and by early September only the AFU itself was pretending no one knew that 3rd Corps had been running successful assault operations. This review formally acknowledged the success last week. These are the first specific claims of  how much territory was liberated though. It is a clear and substantial Ukrainian victory. It is all over the Ukrainian news and a bunch of Russia milbloggers are saying the same thing. So far my newspaper’s done two pieces on this:

So if you haven’t heard about it in the western mainstream, it’s not because us in Ukraine weren’t trying to get the information out. Between the two articles you will get a decent picture of what’s been happening. Graphically, I strongly recommend this excellent video by Clement Molin that shows what’s been going on.

On a connected note, the commander of 3rd Corps Andriy Biletsky got irritated at a Friday Russian propaganda TV television conference in which Putin told a bunch of officials in Bishkek the Russian army is doing great and just on Friday it captured and placed under undisputed Russian control the Ukrainian city Svyatohirsk. My newspaper did two articles on that as well.

Gen. Andriy Biletsky, Commander 3rd Corps, records a video from inside Svyatohirsk, a town Russia said is now totally under Russian control. (Screenshot from video)

Most Ukrainians know the place as an ancient monastery in a very wooded part of Donetsk region, tourists and newlyweds go there. These days Svyatohirsk is in 3rd Corps sector and so over the weekend Biletsky recorded himself going on a pleasant walk through leafy Svyatohirsk, and most of the the center. The monastery was peaceful, birds were singing, people were walking around, no bombs, no shooting, no Russians. Biletsky didn’t even bother wearing a helmet. His best insult was calling Putin a moron with a clown nose. And if you want even more background on Ukrainian offensive activity in Kharkiv/northern Donetsk region, here’s an article about some Colombian/Brazilian foreign fighters that, more or less where Putin said they were surrounded, took ground and destroyed enemy