Russia "Cannot Achieve Land War Success" As Adaptability Favors Ukraine

The increased frequency and brutality of Russia's terror attacks on civilian Ukrainian targets are because Putin understands that he can no longer win the land war and may even fail to preserve some, perhaps much, of what his troops initially took. 

The Ukrainians have now launched two counteroffensives this past spring and summer - around Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia which have retaken hundreds of kilometers of territory. They have done so with an innovative combined arms maneuver warfare approach that has, to some degree, neutralized Russian drone forces while degrading logistics and reinforcement as well as enabling the reintroduction of infantry in armored vehicles. Russia simply has no answer for this. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Zelensky believes the Russian air attacks are increasing because they “cannot achieve success” in the land war. The Ukrainians have been liberating territory near Lyman - up to 250 square miles of territory some say - but are keeping it quiet for operational security (the Ukrainians have become very good at that—they only will announce successes once a campaign phase is over), as they did earlier this summer when they took back a chunk of land at the center of the line. This shows the Ukrainians can advance without taking mass casualties even as Russian losses remain shockingly high. The Ukrainians operate with small numbers of well-trained, motivated forces, in close coordination with masses of drones. It is about being as precise as possible, knowing where a soldier must go and what he might encounter on the way. It is the opposite of the Russian strategy of wasting mass manpower. The adaptability balance in the land war continues to favor Ukraine. 

Zelensky, in another tweet about the ongoing Russian air attacks, mentioned that one of the reasons he believes they are doing this is that the Russians “cannot achieve success” in the land war.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa Russian drone attacks continue throughout the day today, and “shaheds” are still in the sky right now. Nearly 500 attack drones have already been launched since morning. Essentially, the Russians have expanded this war from the front lines, where they cannot achieve success, into … 6:34 PM · Sep 12, 2026 · 202K Views 495 Replies · 1.73K Reposts · 6.06K Likes

Now this is almost certainly a reference to successful Ukrainian ground operations to push the Russians back from near the town of Lyman in the Donbas.

This operation is one that you will hear more about in the coming weeks. The Ukrainians have methodically been liberating territory near Lyman, some reports are up to 250 square miles of territory so far, but are keeping it extremely quiet for reasons of operational security (the Ukrainians have become very good at that—they only will announce successes once they feel a phase of campaign is over). That was what they did earlier this summer when they took back a chunk of land at the centre of the line—which I laid out in the weekend update from two weeks ago. 

The Ukrainian advance near Lyman is notable because Putin had been assured by his own commanders that the town was basically in Russian hands already—and he had even boasted about it. And I can assure you that there are excellent sources telling me that Putin has been given such wildly optimistic reports (from the Russian perspective) specifically about the Lyman area but also about the forward progress of the Russian Army throughout the land war.

I am personally waiting for Deep State to update their map (they wait until they feel they will not jeopardize Ukrainian operations before doing so) before saying exactly how much territory has been liberated. So far they have not made an adjustment—so for now they believe the operation is still continuing. However, there are some stories being written if you want to read more reports.

What is important about this operation is that it shows the Ukrainians have the ability to advance without taking mass casualties. They are doing, from what we can tell, exactly what General Havrylov said they would do in this interview with me from last December. 

The Ukrainians operate with small numbers of well-trained and motivated forces, with close coordination with masses of drones and with excellent communications. It is about being as precise and accurate as possible—to move forward by knowing where a soldier must go and what he might encounter on the way. It is the opposite of the Russian strategy of wasting mass manpower on the assumption that a few soldiers might be lucky enough to make it a few yards ahead and seize territory.

Note, Russian casualties remain shockingly high. The daily losses yesterday were over 1500, which really is a stunning number. And British intelligence has just confirmed that they estimate that Russian military dead are now over half a million for the war.

So the adaptability balance in the land war continues to favor Ukraine. That shows at least one reason why Zelensky is now focussed on the Russian ranged war.