The Army of Drones' Success Leads Ukraine To A Growing Army of Robots

From an Army of Drones to an Army of Robots is not just a leap of technology, it is a leap of scale - as well as of innovation and imagination. 

What it means is that the success of the drone war against Russia has led Ukrainian military leaders and tech innovators to conceive of a re-imagined military in which a growing number of tasks can realistically be repurposed for machines, many of which will be autonomous. The implication is that Ukrainian commanders are increasingly confident they can beat the Russians on the battlefield by utilizing their technological superiority and adaptability. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

"In 2022 we launched the Army of Drones. Today they account for 95% of battlefield strikes and Ukraine has over 700 UAV manufacturers. Now, (we are initiating) the roboticization of warfare." This week, the the Ukrainians combined Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) to help retake land. They used UAVs (drones) to drop UGVs (think small, cheap, robotic vehicles) behind Russian lines. the air-dropped UGVs tracked down Russian soldiers behind the line of contact, which led to faster Ukrainian advances from the front. Credible reports are circulating that the Russians have been pushed entirely out of Lyman. Vivaldi's success (and the overall Russian failure on the front line) has been greatly aided by the ongoing Ukrainian mid-range strike campaign on Russian logistics. 

Mykhailo Fedorov reappeared in the last few days. It was not about some return to his position as minister of defense, but it was to put stress on what he called the transition to an “Army of Robots”. Yesterday he gave an overview of what this means and why it is important—complete with a slick video.

Btw, there has been some nonsense online about how tanks are now mastering FPV drones and that the latter are losing their utility. This is nonsense, there will be a piece on this later.

What Fedorov was talking about was as much the future as the present—there were visions of humanoid robots operating in trenches—but the present is enough for now. This week we had stories of maybe the most striking example of machines being used to fight human beings, when it turned out that the Ukrainians had combined two of the most dynamically developing unmanned vehicles, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) to help retake land.

What the Ukrainians did was use UAVs (drones) to drop UGVs (think small, cheap, robotic vehicles) behind Russian lines to cause chaos. Third Corps disclosed that the operation took place on September 20, and that it was a remarkable success. The commander of Third Corps, to make the life saving part of the process central, claimed:

“Infantry wins wars, but we protect our infantry, so robots go to the enemy first,”

What the air-dropped UGVs did was track down Russian soldiers behind the front, which led to faster Ukrainian advances from the front. The Telegraph is the only outlet that provided a narrative of these operations in English, and you can access a free version through Yahoo at this link. Here is a Ukrainian picture of an offensive UGV of the type that might have been used.

Of course, this is just one thing that is being increasingly mechanized on the battlefield. We hear of the Ukrainians mechanizing mine-clearing, the evacuation of the wounded, and the forward movement of supplies. When it comes to de-mining, for example, the Ukrainians this week also claimed that UGV units cleared a noticeably long distance of roads/tracks, 30 kms, in two days without loss.

Once you add fighting to the list, you can see where this is going.

While it is difficult to judge exactly how this has all worked within Vivaldi, it is clear that the Ukrainians see this as a key part of their success. They claim, and it seems plausible, that in going forward they have caused a large number of casualties to the Russians, and have lost relatively fewer themselves.

That would be notable in the context of this war, where advancing has been increasingly expensive in human lives.

As for Vivaldi, the Ukrainians are still not being too revealing about their advances. Deep State has only a relatively small area changing hands from Russia to Ukraine around Lyman in the last week. Here was the situation on 18 September (see the blue area to the north of Lyman).

Here is the situation at their most recent update (September 25).

However, quite credible reports are being circulated that the Russians have been pushed entirely out of Lyman. Actually, one of the most interesting sources we have for this is Russian milbloggers, who are getting a little panicky at what is happening. The well-known Russian “Rybar” account has a much more optimistic map for the Ukrainians, which has them retaking a great deal more land to the north of Lyman reaching to and even over the body of water north of Zarichne.

I actually reached out to a Ukrainian whom I trust and who has excellent knowledge of these things. I specifically asked about the differences between the Russian and Ukrainian maps of this area, and whether the Russian ones with deeper Ukrainian advances might be the reality. I was told, in response, that this was “highly likely”.

That does not mean definite, mind you, but this person does not exaggerate. Believe me.

Btw, as a comparison, the Institute for the Study of War, in its update from yesterday, has significantly greater advances than Deep State but perhaps less than Rybar.

So Vivaldi is ongoing, the Ukrainians are being open about how they are fighting it and what they want to do going forward, and they seem to be making advances. Still, we need to damp down talk of Ukrainian breakthroughs or fast advances. This is not the war we are in (at present). However, in moving forward in this way, the Ukrainians are innovating at a much faster pace than the Russians, and that is notable.

The only other thing I want to say about this campaign is that its success (and the overall Russian failure on the front line) has been greatly aided by the ongoing Ukrainian mid-range strike campaign on Russian logistics. This has receded from the news in the last few weeks, but it is ongoing and taking a real toll on Russian supply and movement behind the lines. What it means is that the Russians are struggling in their reaction speed to Ukrainian moves. That extra time is vital.