Ukraine's Success Vs Russia Has Disrupted China's Designs On Asia

Russia has been forced by its own brutality and incompetence to become increasingly dependent on China, altering their relationship to one of Beijing's dominance. 

But ironically, this support has driven Ukraine to become ever more innovative, which has resulted in China's designs on Taiwan, as well as Japan, the Phillipines and other Asian countries, more challenging. The reason is that these much smaller countries now have access to defense technologies pioneered by Ukraine that effectively increase their ability to offset China's numerical advantage - just as Ukraine has done to Russia, despite China's fulsome support for the Kremlin's aggression. JL

Raj K reports in Medium:

Ukraine has shown that cheap, fast, and large-scale use of drones can challenge traditional military power. Tanks, artillery, and large platforms are no longer as safe as before. Taiwan is an island. China has to cross the sea to reach there. If Taiwan uses thousands of “sea drones” in the style of Ukraine, China’s naval fleet can be sunk before it even reaches the coast. The use of AI-powered drones on the battlefield is also challenging China’s electronic warfare capabilities. Ukraine has shown how a small army can entangle a large army through satellite networks like Starlink and real-time data sharing. The Philippines and Vietnam are now adopting Ukraine’s strategy and the policy of small, agile ships to counter China’s “coast guard” aggression in the South China Sea.

According to a Bloomberg report, Russia’s dependence on China for the import of sanctioned technologies has reached up to 90%. This sentence sounds straightforward, but the reality is a bit more complex.

The correct understanding is that Russia’s dependence on China has increased rapidly in some important sectors — especially technology and trade — and this has tilted the balance of power towards China.

First, let us understand where and why this dependence has grown. After Western sanctions, it became difficult for Russia to get high-tech goods, machinery, and electronics from Europe and America.

In such a situation, options became limited, and among them, the biggest and most capable supplier is China.

For this reason, reports show that China’s share in the import of sanction-related technologies has become very high, around 90%.

This does not mean that Russia has come completely under “control,” but it certainly shows that Russia has fewer options.

When a country has fewer paths to choose from, the impact of the remaining option automatically increases.

Today, China has become Russia’s largest trading partner, but if we look at it the other way, Russia is only a small market for China.

That is, the relationship is not equal. Experts like Elina Ribakova see this imbalance as a tilt towards “dominance” — where one side is more dependent, and the other is in a more controlling position.

If China changes its policy or wants to reduce risk, Russia will have very few options left — and this is the real weakness.

Europe knows that China is helping Russia from behind the scenes, which is prolonging the war. But Europe’s hands are tied. If Europe imposes strict sanctions on China, China will also hit back.

Since the entire world’s trade is linked to China, doing so could shake the global economy and bring inflation and recession in Europe itself.

China is behaving here like a clever player. It is giving goods and technology to Russia so that Russia does not become weak.

At the same time, it is not directly involved in the war and is not openly giving weapons to Russia, so that Western countries (America and Europe) cannot completely isolate it.

Even though Russia is an independent power, the balance in its relations with China has now become heavy. Because after the sanctions, China’s market has become not just an “option” for Russia, but a “necessity.”

Russia is now completely dependent on China for chips, semiconductors, and high-tech machinery. Without Chinese technology, it would be difficult for Russia to maintain its modern weapons.

Along with this, in Russian trade, the Chinese currency “Yuan” has taken the place of the dollar, which has increased China’s influence on Russia’s financial system.

Drones Have Changed the Game

The Ukraine-Russia war has truly changed the understanding of modern warfare. China, which has been planning an attack on Taiwan for a long time, is now learning two big and deadly lessons from this war.

Ukraine has shown that cheap, fast, and large-scale use of drones can challenge traditional military power. Tanks, artillery, and large platforms are no longer as safe as before.

Taiwan is an island. China has to cross the sea to reach there. If Taiwan uses thousands of “sea drones” in the style of Ukraine, China’s huge naval fleet can be sunk before it even reaches the coast.

The use of AI-powered drones on the battlefield, which can hit targets even without GPS, is also challenging China’s electronic warfare capabilities.

Ukraine has shown how a small army can entangle a large army through satellite networks like Starlink and real-time data sharing.

Countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are now adopting Ukraine’s transparent communication strategy and the policy of small, agile ships to counter China’s “coast guard” aggression in the South China Sea.

Looking at the Ukraine-Russia war, two things have become clear for China. The first big lesson is that the notion “a small country will always lose” has now become weaker.

In history, attacking armies always had to maintain a 3:1 ratio, but now this math has changed.

If China imagines any big operation in an area like Taiwan, it will have to proceed with the understanding that the opposing side will not fight only in traditional ways.

The second lesson is related to maritime and complex geography. China may have the world’s largest navy, but it cannot change geography. Crossing the Taiwan Strait is a very big challenge.

The way Ukraine has sunk Russian ships in the Black Sea using sea drones has forced China to think that its expensive destroyers can turn into wreckage before reaching Taiwan’s coast.

To sink China’s $1 billion warship, Taiwan would only need a few $20,000 “suicide drones.” This “economic attrition” can shake China’s economy.

But here a necessary correction must be made — it is not entirely accurate to say that “an expensive navy becomes helpless in front of cheap drones.” The reality is that drones have certainly become a new challenge for navies, but they have not made them completely irrelevant.

As of today, surface maritime drones (USVs) are proving to be far more effective and practical. Along with this, underwater drones (UUVs) have also entered the battlefield.

However, these underwater drones are not as effective as surface drones because surface drones (like Ukraine’s “Sea Baby” or “Magura V5”) are directly connected to satellites (like Starlink) and GPS.

This allows the operator to control them in real time and change the drone’s path as soon as the target changes.

On the other hand, radio waves do not work underwater for underwater drones. Acoustic (sound) waves have to be used to control underwater drones, which are very slow and can be easily heard by the enemy.

An underwater drone that “finds a target and collides” is basically a remote-controlled torpedo.

If we add the “drone” features (slow speed and long surveillance) to it, it becomes a slow and weak submarine that is easy to detect and destroy using sonar.

But this does not mean that underwater drones are useless. Their role is different. They are made for “slow and hidden” missions — like laying mines, cutting cables, or quietly entering inside ports.

They are less visible, so their strategic value is different. The problem is that their technology has not yet reached the level where it can be used on a large scale, quickly, and continuously.

As technology improves, especially in batteries and communication, their role can also increase.

Many times I feel like laughing and am also amazed — Putin had launched a 3-day special military operation to finish Ukraine. Ukraine was not finished, but today it has become a global power in the field of drones.

Today, military strategists around the world are no longer looking towards Moscow, but towards Kyiv (Kyiv), wondering how a small country has blunted the teeth of the world’s second-largest army with its “drone power.”

Putin wanted to wipe out Ukraine, but unknowingly, he turned Ukraine into a “21st-century military powerhouse.”