Why Putin's "Friends" Are Now Confronting Him About the Ukraine War

Russia's economic friends, like India, Kazakhstan, Armenia and others are delivering subtle but unmistakable warnings to the Kremlin that his war in Ukraine is increasingly viewed globally as going badly for Russia, unwinnable and a threat to the economy of even those countries maintaining positive relations with it. 

Much of this is due to the war's impact on oil prices and other economic indicators. But it is also an appeal from those who value Russia as an offset to US power and who fear that Russia's impending failure and potential ensuing chaos is bad for stability. JL

Thomas Grove and Tripti Lahiri report in the Wall Street Journal:

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's momentary admonishment of Putin's Ukraine war marked a subtle shift in the tone that some of Moscow’s partners have struck with the Russian leader in recent months as the toll from the war, now in its fifth year, grows for Russia and its backers. A a month earlier, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, a Russian ally, confronted Putin with a similarly blunt message, saying he was hearing from many countries who were questioning why Russia was still waging the war. The chiding comes as the war’s pain is increasingly being felt inside and outside Russia. The Kremlin’s advances ib Ukraine have largely stalled with its forces taking heavy casualties. Ukraine has been steadily raising the cost for Moscow. “Concern is on the rise that escalation is spilling over to affect other countries and their economies,” 

At a heavily scripted summit in Central Asia recently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to break from the choreography momentarily to chastise President Vladimir Putin of Russia, a country that has been a close partner of New Delhi since the Soviet era.

It was time “to move on from an endless war to an end of war,” he told an expressionless Putin, seated next to him in an ornate reception room at the summit in Kyrgyzstan.

It wasn’t the first time Modi had criticized the war, but the remark was notably direct and forceful. The admonishment marked a subtle shift in the tone that some of Moscow’s partners have struck with the Russian leader in recent months as the toll from the war, now in its fifth year, grows for Russia and its backers.

A little more than a month earlier, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, a Russian ally, confronted Putin with a similarly blunt message at a meeting in Siberia. Tokayev said he was hearing from many countries who were questioning why Russia was still waging the war. “The nature of the conflict isn’t entirely clear for many, including us,” he told Putin.

The chiding comes as the war’s pain is increasingly being felt inside and outside Russia. The Kremlin’s advances in eastern Ukraine have largely stalled despite its forces taking heavy casualties. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been steadily raising the cost for Moscow, with nearly daily barrages that have struck some of its largest refineries and the warehouses of the country’s biggest online retailer. When Central Intelligence Agency chief John Ratcliffe paid a visit to Moscow last month, one of his messages for the Russian leader was: it is time to come back to the negotiating table.

Russia’s partners have also suffered from the war’s fallout. India has been under pressure from the West to end its oil purchases from Moscow. A Russian missile attack on a cargo ship in the Black Sea killed four Indian crew members in July. Violence in those waters has also led to disruptions for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which Kazakhstan relies on to export its oil.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev with Putin. Petr Kovalev/Kremlin/EPA/Shutterstock

“Concern might be on the rise that escalation is spilling over to affect other countries and their economies,” said Hanna Notte, Eurasia director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Moscow has tried to cultivate deeper ties with New Delhi, which has long been a loyal recipient of Russian oil and arms. India’s reliance on Russian crude, however, triggered the ire of Washington. President Trump took aim at India over the sales last year, with measures that pushed tariffs on India to as high as 50%.

Modi’s recent comments also sent a signal to India’s Western partners that he is sensitive to their concerns, even as the country prepares to host a summit of the Brics nations, a grouping that includes Russia, China and Brazil, and has been seen as a challenge to the Western-led order.

India wants its “Western partners to know that even though India may be buying more oil from Russia or may be buying more weapons from Russia, at the end of the day we are not in favor of that war they are carrying out,” said Sreeram Chaulia, professor and dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India.

Criticism from former Soviet satellite states highlights Moscow’s waning influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. U.S. companies have invested heavily in countries such as Kazakhstan and Armenia, giving them an alternative to Russian patronage.

Tokayev’s decision to speak out in July came as drone strikes disrupted the CPC and discouraged shipowners from loading at the pipeline’s terminal in Novorossiysk, on Russia’s Black Sea coast. U.S. oil companies that are members of the pipeline consortium, a group that includes arms of Chevron and ExxonMobil, might have reached out to Kazakhstan to express their dissatisfaction with the delays, said Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“For Tokayev the main reason was pressure from the West,” he said.

A satellite image of an oil tanker damaged following a Ukrainian attack in Novorossiysk, Russia. Vantor/Reuters

Chevron didn’t respond to a request for comment. ExxonMobil said it hadn’t requested Tokayev confront Putin over the war.

Armenia’s public pushback against Putin has taken place against a broader decoupling between Russia and the former Soviet state, which had been under Moscow’s rule off and on for more than 100 years. Armenia has expressed frustration with Moscow for failing to use its peacekeepers to prevent bloodshed during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory.

Last year, Trump hosted the leaders of both Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House to clinch a peace deal, which comes with new U.S. investment in Armenia, including a data center. 

“There is a perception that Russians have their hands full in Ukraine, which gives these countries the confidence that they can get away with more in criticizing Moscow,” said Notte.