Operation Vivaldi Has Made Russia's Strategic Donbas Plan "Entirely Unviable"

Yes, Operation Vivaldi's ground gains are significant and the casualties it has inflicted on Russian forces are devastating. 

But the most important result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive so far is that it has made the Kremlin's primary operational objective for this year unobtainable. Or in the words of the Institute for the Study of War, "entirely unviable.' The implication is both that Putin's goals - and his reputational stature - have been further degraded while Ukraine now has additional options for framing the war in pursuit of its own strategic objectives. JL

Alex Rowan reports:

Operation Vivaldi's territorial gains are significant, but the strategic impact is what makes them matter. Russia spent months trying to encircle Ukraine’s Donbas fortresses — Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka. The plan was to squeeze Ukrainian defenders from multiple directions and force a withdrawal. Ukraine’s counterattack near Lyman has made that plan, according to the ISW, “entirely unviable.” That is the real result of Operation Vivaldi. Not just 176 square kilometers, but the collapse of Russia’s main operational objective in Donetsk. Russia can still attack. It can still take casualties. But it cannot encircle a fortress belt that Ukraine has now broken open from the inside. That is where the war stands. Russia can still bomb Ukrainian cities. But Ukraine is taking back its land. 

Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps has liberated 176 square kilometers of territory in northern Donetsk since the start of Operation Vivaldi, including another 51 square kilometers in the past day alone. The corps has taken 250 Russian prisoners of war and reportedly put roughly 2,000 Russian soldiers out of action. Ukrainian forces have freed the settlements of Nove, Ridkodub, and Katerinivka, and regained control of Karpivka and Novomihailivka.

ISW has assessed that the counteroffensive has disrupted Russia’s plans to encircle Ukrainian strongholds in eastern Donetsk.

Russia’s response was to bomb a residential building in Kharkiv.

A Russian glide bomb struck a multi-story apartment block in Kharkiv’s Saltivskyi district overnight, injuring at least 38 people, including several children. In Kyiv, a Russian drone struck the National Academy of Sciences building in the city center during the day on Monday, killing one person and injuring six, including three children. A medical facility in the capital was also hit, and a pharmaceutical enterprise and multiple gas stations were damaged.

Zelensky said Russia has launched nearly 3,900 drones, aerial bombs, and missiles at Ukraine in the past week alone.

Why Vivaldi Matters Beyond the Numbers

The territorial gains are significant, but the strategic impact is what makes them matter. Russia spent months trying to encircle Ukraine’s Donbas fortresses — Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka. The plan was to squeeze Ukrainian defenders from multiple directions and force a withdrawal.

Ukraine’s counterattack near Lyman has made that plan, in ISW’s assessment, “entirely unviable.”

That is the real result of Operation Vivaldi. Not just 176 square kilometers, but the collapse of Russia’s main operational objective in Donetsk. Russia can still attack. It can still take casualties. But it cannot encircle a fortress belt that Ukraine has now broken open from the inside.

Russia’s Response Is Terror, Not Strategy

The glide bomb on Kharkiv’s apartment block was not a military necessity. It was a response to frustration.

Russia cannot stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It cannot protect its refineries. It cannot prevent Ukrainian drones from reaching 1,500 kilometers into its territory. So it bombs apartment buildings in Ukraine’s second-largest city.

The National Academy of Sciences strike in Kyiv — during the day, in the city center — is another example. A scientific institution is not a military target. A medical facility is not a military target. A pharmaceutical enterprise is not a military target.

But Russia is not trying to win a military victory anymore. It is trying to break Ukrainian will. And when it cannot do that on the battlefield, it does it by killing civilians.

Trump Asked Ukraine to Stop. Ukraine Said “Probably.”

Ukraine’s Security Service struck four oil depots in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai overnight — Edelweiss-95, Din-Yug-Oil, Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt, and Angelinskaya. Fires were reported at multiple sites.

The strikes came just hours after Trump told reporters he had asked Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. “I said to him: ‘You need to attack oil refineries less often,’” Trump said. “He replied: ‘Well, probably we will do that.’ Okay.”

That is not a commitment. It is a hedge.

Ukraine knows exactly what the refinery campaign does. It forces Russia to spend money on repairs, to reroute fuel supplies, to restrict exports. It makes the war more expensive. And it is one of the few forms of leverage Ukraine has that Russia cannot easily counter.

Trump wants the strikes to stop because they are affecting global fuel prices. Ukraine wants them to continue because they are affecting Russia’s ability to fund its war. Those two positions are not reconcilable.

So Ukraine says “probably.” And keeps striking.

Germany’s First Talks With Russia Produced a Blunt Verdict

Germany’s first direct talks with Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion have produced a clear conclusion: Moscow is not ready for serious negotiations.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul met with Sergei Lavrov in New York, and Berlin said afterward that the conversation confirmed “Russia is not prepared to negotiate either a ceasefire or an end to the war in Ukraine.”

That matters because it takes away an excuse. For years, European leaders have been accused of not trying hard enough to engage Moscow. Germany’s foreign minister just sat down with Lavrov and came back saying what Ukraine has been saying all along: Russia is not serious.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, continues to say a trilateral meeting involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States could happen soon — without providing any details. That is the pattern. Russia talks about talks. It never actually negotiates.

The Week in Three Numbers

176 square kilometers liberated in Donetsk.

3,900 drones, bombs, and missiles launched at Ukraine in a single week.

Four more Russian oil depots on fire.

Russia’s answer to Ukraine’s counteroffensive is glide bombs on Kharkiv. Ukraine’s answer to Russia’s glide bombs is liberated territory — and Russian oil infrastructure burning.

That is where the war stands tonight. Russia can still bomb Ukrainian cities. But Ukraine is still taking back its land. And it is still hitting Russia where it hurts — even when Washington asks it to stop.