Putin's Claims Of Battlefield Gains Begin To "Border On Hallucinations"

There is a raging debate among informed observers as to whether Putin's grandiose claims of success in Ukraine are due to the ancient practice of Russian officers lying to their superiors about setbacks and failures for fear of being blamed - or whether Putin is well aware but simply lying in order to raise doubts among his backers like Trump and Xi as well as opponents like the leaders of NATO and the EU. 

A reasonable assumption is that it is some of both: he is probably not fully aware of the debacle in Donbas (though Xi undoubtedly is) but he also believes that the big lie will raise just enough questions among European leaders to keep them hedging their bets. But a negative consequence of Putin's hallucinatory claims is that for those who are aware of the reality, his refusal to acknowledge setbacks is another sign of Kremlin fear and weakness. JL 

Ivan Khomenko reports in United 24:

Vladimir Putin’s claims of major Russian battlefield gains in Ukraine in September “border on hallucinations,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which assessed that Russian forces actually ended the month with a net territorial loss. On October 2, Putin claimed that Russian forces captured 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September. ISW’s battlefield data, however, showed that Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers during the same period. The discrepancy becomes even larger when areas where Russian troops infiltrated but failed to establish control are included. Under that calculation, ISW assessed Russia’s net territorial losses in September at 175.18 square kilometers. Such discrepancies are part of a deeply rooted practice within the Russian military of concealing setbacks and presenting senior leadership with inflated reports of battlefield success.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s claims of major Russian battlefield gains in Ukraine in September “border on hallucinations,” according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which assessed that Russian forces actually ended the month with a net territorial loss. 

According to ISW on October 2, Putin claimed that Russian forces captured 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in September. ISW’s battlefield data, however, showed that Russian forces suffered a net territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers during the same period.

Putin made the claim during a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club on October 1, saying Russian forces had brought 1,301 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory under their control in September—roughly 2.5 times more than in previous months. 

ISW’s geolocated battlefield data showed a substantially different picture. The institute assessed that Russian forces captured 175.54 square kilometers during September, while Ukrainian forces regained 256.35 square kilometers.

That resulted in a net Russian territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers over the course of the month, rather than the large territorial gain described by Putin.

The discrepancy becomes even larger when areas where Russian troops infiltrated but failed to establish control are included. Under that calculation, ISW assessed Russia’s net territorial losses in September at 175.18 square kilometers.

ISW said Putin’s claims about Russian battlefield progress were so disconnected from observed developments that they “border on hallucinations.”

The institute assessed that Putin’s statements are consistent with the Kremlin’s broader cognitive warfare efforts to portray Russian forces as advancing rapidly across the front and Ukrainian defenses as deteriorating. 

ISW noted that it remains unclear whether Putin is aware of the discrepancy between the figures he publicly presents and observed battlefield developments.

The institute has previously assessed that senior Russian military officials have exaggerated territorial gains when reporting battlefield developments.

ISW has linked such discrepancies to what it describes as a deeply rooted practice within the Russian military command of concealing setbacks and presenting senior leadership with inflated reports of battlefield success.

During his Valdai remarks, Putin also claimed that Russian forces could seize the remaining Ukrainian-held areas of the Donetsk region sooner than Ukraine and European countries expect.

Earlier in September, ISW assessed that at Russia’s then-current rate of advance, its forces would need more than six years to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in the Donetsk region, pushing the timeline to October 2032—well beyond Moscow’s stated goal of taking the entire region by the end of 2026.