Russia Is Losing the Land War As Death Gap Rises To 10 Russians For 1 Ukrainian

Vladimir Putin has become as dependent on Donald Trump as Trump has on him, but for different reasons.

Trump is frightened of losing his majorities in the US Senate and Congress from midterm elections in two weeks. His poll ratings continue to sink and a number of his recent positions, including his obvious favoritism for Russia, are deeply unpopular. But he is embracing that stance because he thinks Putin can help him in the midterms, in addition to offering him wealth-enhancing deals in Russia. Putin, on the other hand, appears to know he is losing the land war in Ukraine - and that there is little chance his corrupt, ineffective military can turn the situation around. With a death rate disparity of ten Russians for every Ukrainian and replacement dependent on impoverished, poorly trained Africans and South Americans, Trump's undermining of Ukraine may be his only hope for a somewhat positive negotiated settlement. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Today, relative casualty rates have changed dramatically in Ukraine's favor. The Russians' casualty rate averages one to six, and if you count the killed, it's one to 10 or more (which is contributing) to a continuing degradation in the relative quality and manpower differential between Russia and Ukraine. This helps explain the flailing Russian offensives and confirms why Trump might be desperate to help Putin. The land war, which was always seen as the greatest Russian strength (the mythical steamroller, remember), was transitioning to a Russian weakness. The evidence points more and more to that happening.

One thing that needs to be understood about Trump’s increased public support for Russia and his desire to hurt Ukraine is that it is being motivated by Russian failure not Russian success. Trump has spent years assuring the world that Russia is a great power, destined to win the war. However, as he is assuredly being told, that is not the case with the ground in this war. In fact, the last week confirmed that Russian struggles are not ending.

There was an interesting update this week about what is going on in relation to Operation Vivaldi. According to Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi, of the Third Army Corps which is spearheading the operation, the Ukrainians have liberated more villages and inflicted steadily higher casualties on the Russians. In terms of the land taken, Biletskyi said that Vivaldi (which recently entered what the Ukrainians are calling its fourth phase) has liberated an additional 101 square kilometers recently, and inflicted 8,000 Russian casualties.

The Institute for the Study of War has put together this quite helpful graphic (with a distance marker) showing the extent of Ukrainian advances as part of Vivaldi as of four days ago.

Note—there are reports of some local Ukrainian advances in other parts of the line, from the Sumy and Kharkiv directions around to the Donbas. However, I am waiting for better information on these before commenting.

On the other hand, Russian offensives, which continue along the line, have yielded nothing similar. They seem to have, if anything, advanced even more slowly than they were earlier in the summer. One of the problems might be a continuing degradation in the relative quality and even the manpower differential between Russia and Ukraine. A very interesting interview that you might have missed was given by General Syrskyi, the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, to BBC Ukraine. You might need to translate it to English to read it.

It is a very detailed interview which covers many parts of the war. Syrskyi started by giving a solid overview of how the war had changed between 2022 and 2026. I will quote it here for people who do not have time to go to the interview itself.

O.S.: War has changed a lot. If we compare 2022 with 2026, its technological component has changed a lot. The role of modern means of destruction has increased significantly, primarily drones, which dominate the battlefield.

In fact, this has happened in all areas of combat operations: this applies to reconnaissance, aerial strikes, kamikaze drones, medium strikes deep into the enemy’s territory up to 200-250 kilometers. And, of course, drones have acquired strategic importance, striking strategic objects of the Russian economy deep into Russia to a depth of 2-3 thousand, even up to 4 thousand kilometers.

Then, in the midst of his discussion of the war, he makes a most remarkable claim about how relative casualty rates had changed dramatically in Ukraine’s favor.

Today, the enemy's casualty rate averages one to six, and if you count the killed, it's one to 10 or more.

Btw, Syrskyi is the first Ukrainian figure I have seen go on record publicly with such a claim, but I have heard it privately in other places.

If the reality is close to this, it helps explain the flailing Russian offensives and confirms why Trump might be desperate to help Putin. The land war, which was always seen as the greatest Russian strength (the mythical steamroller, remember), was transitioning to a Russian weakness. The evidence points more and more to that happening.