Russia's Frontline War Is Going Badly and Getting Worse

The latest battlefield reports from Ukraine paint a consistently negative picture for Russia: territorial losses are rising as are casualties. 

And as if that weren't bad enough, the incidence of Russian troops surrendering, claiming they have been abandoned without food, water, ammunition or major weapons support. To make it even more embarrassing, Russian soldiers are increasingly surrendering not just to Ukrainian soldiers, but to ground drones. JL

Phillups O'Brien reports in his substack:

The front line war is not going well for Russia and seems to be getting worse. New generation, purpose built Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) are also operating daily. One of the most interesting reports of these was the use of new UGV grenade launchers. These UGVs approached Russian positions, fired at them, then continued toward the Russian shelters before detonating inside. Maybe the most interesting detail from these attacks was that they were able to remotely control these vehicles with their pilots in safe positions “tens of kilometres” behind the lines. Considering the way technological advances and adaptations go in this war, this distance should grow—and that means fewer Ukrainian casualties and more Russian problems

One of the reasons the Russians are going to double down on war crimes is the front line war is not going well for them—and arguably seems to be getting worse.

Overall, Russian casualties are reaching extreme levels. In September, the Ukrainian general staff has pegged Russian military casualties at over 46,000—not only a monthly record but one that is almost 50% higher than Russian monthly casualties at the start of the year. Here is a monthly chart of 2026 Russian losses as estimated by the Ukrainians.

At the same time Russian recruitment seems to be struggling to replace anything close to this amount. Analysis from the first part of the year, by German Institute for International and Security Affairs economist Janis Kluge judged that Russian forces recruited between 800 and 1,000 soldiers a day in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 1,000 to 1,200 a day in the first quarter of 2025.

Assuming that this number has not decreased further, this would leave the Russians with a real and continually growing real decline in troop numbers.

And Vivaldi will not be making it any better for the Russians. Ukrainians believe that at least 5000 Russian casualties have been inflicted directly the result of Vivaldi (we are only getting 3rd Corps reports so this is the floor) and interestingly there is a growing haul of prisoners. This week up to 250 Russians were said to have surrendered, and pictures of these Russian troops were circulating, including from the Ukrainian military (see picture at start).

Of course, it is important not to get too carried away with reports of Russian collapses or sweeping Ukrainian breakthroughs. Ukrainian advances have been steady and still slow by military history standards of the last 150 years. However even the admittedly restrained Deep State has them pushing back the Russians by 5-10 kilometres in places. Here is their most recent map, with the liberated territories in light blue.

The reality might be more than this—but not quite like the wildly optimistic claims you will find on social media and the like. Here, for instance are Ukrainian official claims on advances, which mirrors the Deep State maps.

What has been important this week is not just steady Ukrainian advances, but the stories describing how they have been achieved. The Ukrainians are certainly doubling down on the use of unmanned vehicles, both new ones and some repurposed old military equipment.

Not to start with my personal hobbyhorse, but logistics now seem dominated by robots. Ukrainians are delivering about 80% of their supplies by unmanned vehicles—and evacuating 90% of their wounded. It is remarkable how many casualties in past wars happened because of such logistical duties—now that is much less of an issue.

This is extraordinary, the future of military logistics is transforming in front of our eyes. Will definitely write about that soon.

Of course it is not just logistics. Attack operations are also being undertaken by robots, from repurposed old vehicles to completely new ones. One of the examples of the former this week came from Ukrainian claims of using repurposed manned vehicles (old Soviet BTR-60s) as unmanned kamikaze attack weapons. They packed these old armored vehicles with explosives and sent them as attack robots to hit Russian lines.

New generation, purpose built Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) are also operating daily. One of the most interesting reports of these was the use of new UGV grenade launchers. These UGVs approached Russian positions, fired at them, then continued toward the Russian shelters before detonating inside.

Maybe the most interesting detail from these attacks was the Ukrainian claim that they were able to remotely control these vehicles with their pilots in safe positions “tens of kilometres” behind the lines.

Considering the way technological advances and adaptations go in this war, this distance should grow—and that means fewer Ukrainian casualties and more Russian problems as time goes by. Zelensky himself spoke about how these operations are reducing Ukrainian losses.

So, Vivaldi is continuing and revealing more and more about Ukrainian preparations over the previous many months. It is a testament to using technology to change momentum. Its success is also why Russia is left to relying, more and more, on war crimes.