Trump-Musk Intel, Starlink Cuts to Ukraine Are Likely Quid Pro Quo For Putin Midterm Election Help

As an increasingly desperate Trump White House faces the prospect of midterm Congressional and Senatorial defeat, the president is becoming more reliant on Putin for help in several ways.

First, because rising oil, and especially diesel price rises have caused much of his polling collapse with working Americans, Trump agreed to a deal with Putin to relax sanctions and pay Russia for fuel (even though almost all experts and markets quickly revealed that the amounts being provided would make no difference in the price at the pump). This also enables Trump to avoid personal blame for the financial impact on energy prices caused by his failed attacks on Iran. Trump is also desperate to be able to claim some sort of diplomatic success, so is now pressuring Ukraine through denial of intelligence (which led to 600,000 Ukrainians losing power due to Russian missile attacks) and, as of today, high speed Starlink access, which has limited the ability of Ukrainian military to continue its dominance on the battlefield. Though these moves are unlikely to sway either Ukraine or American voters (early voting has already started in many states), it is reflective of Trump's affinity for Putin's dictatorship and, of his perception of the benefits of Russian assistance, which also benefits Putin if Trump maintains his legislative majorities. JL

Anastasiia Malenko and colleagues report in the Wall Street Journal:

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has imposed new limits on military-grade Starlink terminals without warning, hobbling Kyiv’s ability to conduct midrange drone attacks and intercept Russia’s jet-powered drones. The limits on Starlink, which restrict the speed at which some of Ukraine’s weapons can travel and still connect to the internet, come as President Trump piles pressure on Ukraine, demanding that it stop hitting Russian oil refineries. SpaceX implemented a speed limit for Starlink terminals last night. Our defense forces received no warning about this restriction, and it has led to the disruption of missions.” 

Ukraine said Elon Musk’s SpaceX has imposed new limits on military-grade Starlink terminals without warning, hobbling Kyiv’s ability to conduct midrange drone attacks and intercept Russia’s new-generation jet-powered drones.

The limits on Starlink, which restrict the speed at which some of Ukraine’s weapons can travel and still connect to the internet, come as President Trump piles pressure on Ukraine, demanding that it stop hitting Russian oil refineries, blaming President Volodymyr Zelensky for continuing the war and calling for his removal.

“I confirm that SpaceX implemented a speed limit for Starlink terminals operating in motion last night,” Serhii Beskrestnov, an adviser to Zelensky, wrote on the Telegram messaging platform. “Our defense forces received no warning about this restriction, and it has led to the disruption of a number of missions.”

It wasn’t immediately clear what had caused the disruption. SpaceX, which produces Starlink, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense is in contact with the U.S., SpaceX and its NATO partners about the StarShield issue as it gathers data from units and tests and deploys backup communication channels, said a ministry official.

Trump’s demands have raised questions among allies about whether support the U.S. provides to Ukraine, such as intelligence warning Kyiv of incoming ballistic missile attacks, would continue. On Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. was continuing to share intelligence with Kyiv, after Zelensky said Kyiv hadn’t received a warning from allies ahead of a Russian missile attack. 

Ukraine’s access to StarShield is provided under a contract handled by the Defense Department. Asked about the new limits Wednesday, a Pentagon spokesman referred to the president’s comments on intelligence sharing the previous day. 

Ukraine relies on SpaceX’s StarShield, a Starlink subscription designed for government and military use, for its battlefield operations. Ukraine has become relatively self-sufficient in holding the front line against Russia thanks to drones and other automated weaponry developed by Ukrainian forces. 

But some of these systems depend on StarShield for connectivity. Reductions in the speed at which they can travel, and still connect to the terminal, make operations more difficult, Ukrainian military officials and analysts said.

The limits also reduce Ukraine’s ability to organize frontline logistics, reconnaissance and relay communications, the Defense Ministry official said.

The speed restriction has complicated Ukrainian operations. Anatolii Stepanov/Reuters

While drones can still fly, live video feeds aren’t as reliable, especially when going after moving targets, for instance. The unmanned aerial vehicles must also fly slower to stay connected to StarShield, making them more vulnerable to attack.

Ukrainian drones flying over Russia were already barred from using StarShield, meaning that long-range attacks on Russian diesel production, which President Trump is trying to stop, are unlikely to be affected by any new limits, officials and defense executives say. These drones have been using other satellite providers, inertial navigation, terrain recognition and other ways to guide themselves.

Earlier this year, SpaceX disabled unauthorized Russian access to its satellite internet terminals, disrupting Russian troops’ battlefield communication and defanging their efforts to attack Ukrainian military logistics.

Starlink had already imposed in-motion speed limits on its civilian terminals in Ukraine, but StarShield military accounts continued to offer connections at high-speeds.

The latest shift means Ukrainian ground drones, which don’t travel at high speeds, can still use Starlink but unmanned aerial vehicles, which operate best at speeds over 100 miles an hour, are more constrained.

On Wednesday morning, servicemen in several Ukrainian units reported problems related to the speed limits on terminals. Ukraine’s 7th Corps of the Air Assault Forces said they started experiencing connectivity issues with StarShield overnight and had to cancel some missions due to unreliable connectivity.

The speed limit of 100 miles an hour complicated Ukrainian logistics, middle-range missions and the work of its drone crews, according to an official in Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

“Although the drones continued to fly, these interruptions made it difficult to control them,” the 7th Corps said in a statement on Telegram, adding that slower drones were also more vulnerable to Russian fire. The connectivity issues presented challenges for launching middle-range drones due to the high speeds required at takeoff, the Corps said in the message, which has since been deleted.

Accounts varied on specifics of the new limit, as the forces scrambled to figure out the impact of the change, with some officers saying it was as high as 100 miles an hour and some saying they lost signal even at speeds as low as 44 miles an hour.

Starlink connectivity had also recently enabled Ukraine to start intercepting Russia’s high-speed jet-powered drones that have attacked cities far from the front line, according to several Ukrainian air-defense officials and Beskrestnov, the Ukrainian presidential adviser.

In recent months, Kyiv asked American officials to switch on Starlink connectivity for Ukraine over Russia to enable it to strike ballistic missile launchers. Zelensky reiterated this plea last week at the site of the deadly missile attack in the northern town of Pryluky.