A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 3, 2026

Four New Russian Salients Picked Off By Ukraine As Vivaldi Tactics Spread

Applying the model that worked so well during Operation Vivaldi, Ukrainian forces have now cut off four additional Russian salients  on the Donbas front, isolating the Russian units caught in those cauldrons while further disrupting Russia's plans, such as they remain. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:
By virtue of Operation Vivaldi and the recently launched Operation Veles(just north of Lyman in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv oblast) Ukraine has disrupted and largely eliminated several major Russian salients threatening the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. But more such salients remain. The possibility of now encircling and cutting off multiple different sized Russian garrisons in the area is quite real. Russian forces are still being surprised by seeing Ukrainian units, both Unmanned Ground Assault robots and Special Forces suddenly appear in what they had previously thought to be their safe rear. Disconnected Russian army units, now largely cut off from their logistical tail, with their backs to the Zherebets and Siverskyi Donet rivers even as Ukrainian troops threaten their rear and escape routes, make for salients that are prone to collapse 

It is quite striking how quickly the collapse of the Russian northern pincer near Lyman at the hands of Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi threatens to cave in the entire Russian front aimed at the “Fortress Belt”. A cursory look at the Institute For The Study of War(ISW) map of October 8th, 2026 (see caption photo) shows at least 4 or more Russian salients ripe for the picking. 

The fairly sizable Russian garrison currently bsaed near Yampil looks to be particularly vulnerable as recent reports indicate a forming Ukrainian pincer bearing down on it from two directions … north from Zarichne and south from Yampil:

Ukrainian Armed Forces Have Surrounded Russian Forces In Yampol
 

According to Western sources, Ukrainian troops have crossed the Zherebets River in at least two places—near Nevskoye and near Zarechny. The northern route leads into the Luhansk region—the very same one that Putin has “conquered,” it seems, about five times. But I’m more interested in the southern breakthrough, near Zarechny. Because its goal, by all accounts, isn’t simply to penetrate as deep as possible into the rear, but to outflank and encircle from the rear the main Russian base for the entire region—the city of Yampol.

Geography is key here. Yampil is situated on the right, western bank of the Zherebets River. If I’m correct about the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ plan, they’re bypassing the city along the left bank to blockade it and cut it off from its main forces. This is also indicated by the fact that, at the same time, the Ukrainian offensive continues along the Seversky Donets from west to east—along the southern flank of Yampol itself. If everything goes according to plan, Ukrainian forces will encircle the city, with two rivers flanking it from the south and north.

https://charter97.org/en/news/2026/9/19/698984

 
Based on the ISW report and map referenced above, Newsweek Magazine also sees what it terms as “breakthroughs” emerging as a result of the collapse of the northern pincer of Russia’s planned encirclement of the fortress cities (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka):

Map Reveals Four New Ukrainian Front Line Breakthroughs

“Russian milblogger claims that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River are notable, as the river is a significant natural obstacle,” the ISW said in its latest update on Thursday.

The Washington, D.C., think tank said that the Russian sources feared that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Slovyansk and Kramatorsk directions “may have cascading effects and implications for Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt.”

It would mean that Russian troops gathering towards the cities would be difficult. Any push by Moscow towards Slovyansk may be “doomed” due to failure or high casualties if Russian forces cannot recapture forests south of the city of Lyman.

https://www.newsweek.com/map-four-new-ukrainian-front-line-breakthroughs-12545341 

I am not quite sure if “breakthroughs” are what we’re seeing but certainly the possibility of now encircling and cutting off multiple different sized Russian garrisons in the area is quite real. Russian forces are still being surprised by seeing Ukrainian units, both Unmanned Ground Assault robots and Special Forces suddenly appear in what they had previously thought to be their safe rear, causing them severe confusion in which some have chosen to fight(and die) rather than surrender as many of their more sanguine compatriots have thought it the better part of valor to give up the fight:

Ukraine says heavy bomber drones air-dropped exploding war robots miles behind Russian lines during a secretive operation

https://www.businessinsider.com/drones-drop-robots-russian-lines-ukraine-retake-territory-2026-9

Ukraine’s 3rd Corps Advances 5 km Behind Russian Lines in Operation Vivaldi

“Today, the use of armored vehicles is effectively a special operation. It requires extremely detailed planning and the coordination of a huge number of assets,” he explained. 

Before one of the assaults, the corps and brigade commands even conducted a war game to plan the operation. Biletskyi said he doubted until the last moment whether the armored vehicles could be used successfully, but decided not to stand in the way of the brigade commanders’ initiative.

The first mechanized assault helped Ukrainian forces partially encircle the settlement of Nove.

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukraine-s-3rd-corps-advances-5-km-behind-russian-lines-in-operation-vivaldi/

By virtue of Operation Vivaldi and the recently launched Operation Veles(just north of Lyman in the Kupiansk area of Kharkiv oblast) ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE has disrupted and largely eliminated several major Russian salients threatening the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. But more such salients remain. The harsh winter weather on the Ukrainian steppe land is fast on its way. Already frazzled disconnected Russian army units, now largely cut off from their logistical tail, with their backs to the Zherebets and Siverskyi Donet rivers even as Ukrainian troops threaten their rear and escape routes, make for salients that are prone to collapse … and being picked off … à la carte.

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