R&D Spending: Quality vs Quantity

China is catching up to the US in R&D spending, but the issue of quality versus quantity remains a concern as volume of patents produced eclipses usefulness. Another question is whether the current obsession with social network effects as a cheaper substitute for survey research data will also contribute to the worry that quality dilution is being sanctioned.

IAM magazine reports on the trends:

"The United States remains the world’s dominant force in science, according to research published yesterday by the UK’s Royal Society. Knowledge, Networks and Nations reports that the US spends more on R&D than any other country and publishes more scientific papers while, crucially, there are more citations of US scientific works than those from any other country. It all means that the US wins not only on quantity but, much more importantly, on quality as well.

But while the US remains in top spot, emerging nations – led by China – are beginning to catch up, especially on the quantity side of things. The Chinese are now the second biggest investors in R&D; and when it comes to publications they could even outstrip the Americans within two years. However, they continue to lag a number of countries on the citations front. Here, the UK comes in second to the US with third spot taken by Germany; France and Japan make up the top five. That said, the Chinese are now firmly entrenched in the top 10 most cited rankings, whereas previously they were nowhere to be seen.

The Royal Society has spent a great deal of time looking into the scientific state of play and what they have found bears out something that I have said a few times in the past: while there is no doubt that emerging countries are now becoming serious players, mature western democracies still hold sway when it comes to both quality and quantity of work. Says the report:

The USA leads the world in research, producing 20% of the world’s authorship of research papers, dominating world university league tables, and investing nearly US$400 billion per year in public and private research and development. The UK, Japan, Germany and France each also command strong positions in the global league tables, producing high quality publications and attracting researchers to their world class universities and research institutes. These five countries alone are responsible for 59% of all spending on science globally.

There is little that the current big five can do in terms of the quantity of work being done in the developing world, but it remains absolutely within their power to keep the lead when it comes to quality. Western democracies have the best universities and research institutions now, there is no reason why they cannot continue to have them; if, that is, political leaders and those running universities/institutions make the right calls in terms of funding, salary packages, working conditions, quality of life, visas, academic freedom and everything else that goes into making sure you can attract and retain the best scientific talent. Of course, when you give yourself access to that talent and the work it produces, and you throw in access to capital, a fully functioning IP infrastructure and the rule of law, you are very well placed to engineer the kind of innovative activity that enables long term, sustainable economic growth. In short, the west continues to have all the advantages. The big issue of the 21st century is will it throw them away?