A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 16, 2025

Russia's Pokrovsk Attacks Turn Into 'Catastrophic Bloodbath' As Kremlin Loses 20,000 More Troops Than It Can Mobilize Monthly

The Kremlin's latest armored assaults at Pokrovsk have turned into a 'catastrophic bloodbath' as Ukrainian drones, artillery, mines and infantry have destroyed so much Russian armor and killed so many Russian soldiers that the Kremlin is losing 20,000 more troops than it can replace on a monthly basis.

After two years of attempted assaults, the Russian attack approaches are now obvious to Ukrainian defenders, who are able to deploy their drone, artillery and mines in ways that decimate the Russians before they can even reach Ukrainian lines. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

A Russian mechanized offensive in Donetsk now underway is turning into a bloodbath. Russia launched two major armored assaults around Pokrovsk this week—both ending in catastrophic losses and disaster for Russian tank columns. On Monday, the Russian 5th Motor Rifle Brigade rolled 18 armored vehicles toward Myrnohrad, east of Pokrovsk. Drones and artillery from Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed a tank and 12 IFVs killing 100 Russians. On Thursday, Ukrainian forces destroyed 20 vehicles from a column of three dozen tanks and fighting vehicles assaulting Pokrovsk. The losses matter because Russia can’t replace what it’s losing. Russian field armies are suffering 18-to-20% greater losses over the last week - 20,000 more than they can mobilize monthly.
After months of infantry-led assaults, Russia launched at least two major armored assaults around the fortress city of Pokrovsk this week—both ending in catastrophic losses for Russian tank columns. Ukrainian troops are killing Russian troops faster than the Kremlin can replace them.

The shift back to mechanized warfare marks a dangerous escalation. After months relying on infantry assaults, Russian forces are now committing precious armor reserves in repeated attempts to widen their salient—even as Ukrainian drones, mines, and artillery destroy tanks faster than Moscow’s factories can replace them.

Russia spent nearly a year carefully stockpiling every available tank and armored vehicle for a major mechanized offensive in Donetsk Oblast. That offensive is now fully underway—and it’s turning into a bloodbath for Russian armor. 

One urgent objective: widen the base of the 40-square-km salient Russian troops carved into Ukrainian lines northeast of Pokrovsk in August. That breakthrough puts Russian forces within reach of Dobropillia, a village sitting astride a main supply line feeding into Pokrovsk from the north.

Capture Dobropillia, and Russia could starve Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk, forcing a retreat. Capture Pokrovsk itself, and Russian forces would have a clear shot at the twin fortress cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—potentially unhinging Ukraine’s entire fortress line in Donetsk Oblast.

The fighting in the Dobropillia pocket is growing more chaotic as more Russian armor presses from multiple directions.

The two biggest mechanized assaults near Pokrovsk in recent days both ended in disaster for Russia. 


On Monday, the Russian 5th Motor Rifle Brigade rolled 18 armored vehicles—a porcupine tank and 17 infantry fighting vehicles—toward Myrnohrad, just east of Pokrovsk.

Drones and artillery from the Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade destroyed the tank and 12 IFVs just east of Myrnohrad, killing around 100 Russian soldiers. “The remnants of the enemy units retreated, suffering significant losses.”

Four days earlier, a Thursday afternoon assault on the village of Shakhove—buttressing Ukrainian defenses along the eastern corner of the chaotic salient just north of Pokrovsk—ended in similar bloody fashion.

Scores of motorcycle troops sped along Kuibyshevo Road threading from contested Volodymyrivka toward adjacent Shakhove, defended by Ukraine’s 225th Assault Regiment. 35 Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers followed right behind.

Some Russian vehicles struck mines. Drones and artillery targeted the survivors. “Thanks to well-planned engineering measures for mine-laying and coordinated actions of the defense forces—primarily artillery crews and unmanned systems—the enemy’s plans were thwarted,” the 1st Azov Corps reported

On Oct. 9 alone, Ukrainian forces destroyed at least 20 vehicles from a column of three dozen tanks and fighting vehicles assaulting near Pokrovsk. The losses matter because Russia can’t replace what it’s losing: the country’s two tank factories may have produced just 10 new T-90M tanks this year. 

 

Russian field armies are running a soldier deficit. It’s the inevitable result of the Kremlin’s decision to double down on the already costly offensive around the fortress city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

“On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops activated attacks across the entire direction, suffering 18-to-20% greater losses over the last week,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported Wednesday.

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