The Growing Perception - and Reality - That Ukraine Has Checkmated Russia

As 2026 approaches its midpoint, Russia now faces two challenges to what was once believed to be its advantage over Ukraine: its ground war is not just stymied, but increasingly appears to be losing ground as its hold on Ukrainian territory has suffered net losses for two months in a row. 

And as importantly, Ukrainian drone range and effectiveness has improved to such a degree that no area in European Russia (eg from the Urals to the western border with NATO countries) is safe from attack, as the Ukrainian destruction of Russian fighter-bomber aircraft 1,700 kms from the front just demonstrated. On top of that, economic analysts are predicting that the Trump administration's attempt to help Russia by relaxing some oil sanctions will prove insufficient to save its economy, in part due to Ukraine's relentless additional attacks. It is small wonder that Vladimir Putin is reported to be hiding in a bunker somewhere, afraid of his oligarchs and military. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Ukraine has stepped up its military effectiveness this year on the ground and in long-range strike operations. This is depriving Russia of momentum on the frontline, and in the past month it has lost ground. Russia is also losing the initiative in long-range strike operations, as Ukrainian drones range over larger parts of Russia and have a greater impact on oil exports. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has crossed a new threshold. The successful targeting of Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft at Chelyabinsk at 1,700 kilometres demonstrates that Russia’s aviation fleet has no truly safe rear area within its European territory. This will force Russia to disperse assets further, increasing logistics costs and reducing operational sortie rates at a time when airpower is central to its offensive campaign.

On the battlefield, the pattern of the past several months continued: high-intensity Russian pressure on multiple axes of advance, Ukrainian defensive resilience, and incremental Russian advances measured in hundreds of metres per day. Ukrainian General Staff reporting for the period around 29 April documented 177 combat engagements in a single 24-hour period, with Russia launching 69 airstrikes, dropping 226 guided aerial bombs, and deploying nearly 10,000 kamikaze drones in that day alone. The most recent Russia Matters report notes that Russia lost ground in the past month.

The ground war in eastern and southern Ukraine. Maps: Institute for the Study of War

EMPR Media’s daily tracking documented Russian pressure around Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, the Lyman axis, and near the Antonivskyi crossing in Kherson Oblast, with Ukrainian defenders repelling 41 assault attempts in the Pokrovsk direction alone in a single reporting period. Near Kupiansk, Russian forces executed a mechanised attack, capturing the villages of Petropavlivka and Stepova Novoselivka, pressing what analysts assess as a renewed effort to encircle and threaten Kupiansk itself.

Ukraine War Assessment

The past week crystallised four realities that will shape the trajectory of the war in the months ahead.

First, Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has crossed a new threshold. The successful targeting of Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft at Chelyabinsk at 1,700 kilometres demonstrates that Russia’s aviation fleet has no truly safe rear area within its European territory. This will force Russia to disperse assets further, increasing logistics costs and potentially reducing operational sortie rates at a time when airpower is central to its offensive campaign.

Second, Zelenskyy’s military reform announcement reflects an acknowledgement that Ukraine must sustain this fight independently of a diplomatic breakthrough. The reform targets real structural weaknesses in pay, rotation, and infantry morale, but successful implementation requires financial resources that Ukraine does not entirely control.

Third, the diplomatic landscape remains uncertain with no short-term peace deal in sight. Russia has not moderated its demands, Washington’s attention is committed elsewhere, and the temporary ceasefire gestures for Russia’s Victory Day are information operations, not genuine peace diplomacy.

Finally, Ukraine has stepped up its military effectiveness this year on the ground and in long-range strike operations. This is depriving Russia of momentum on the frontline, and in the past month it has lost ground. Russia is also losing the initiative in long-range strike operations, as Ukrainian drones range over larger parts of Russia and have a greater impact on oil exports.