Serious Russian Crime Surges To 15 Year High Due To Returning POWs

Russian POWs returning from captivity in Ukraine are a leading cause of a crime surge in Russia that is the highest in 15 years - or around the end of Putin's Second Chechen War. 

The returned POWs are taking their anger out on former comrades who bullied or wronged them during their first enlistment period, but are also inflicting damage on civilians. The Kremlin is said to be aware of the potential social unrest posed by demobilized soldiers but has not developed a strategy for dealing with it other than forcing as many as possible to keep serving in Ukraine. JL

Ivan Khomenko reports in United24:

Serious crime in Russia surged to a 15-year high following the mass return of ex-convicts who fought in Ukraine. Official data showed over 333,000 serious and particularly serious offenses in the first half of 2025, while independent investigations linked hundreds of violent incidents—including murders and assaults—to returning soldiers. One, Sergey Yakushev, of the 83rd Motor Rifle Regiment, is suspected of killing seven fellow soldiers shortly after returning from Ukrainian captivity. 

Kremlin's 3rd Attempted Kharkiv Offensive Already "A Self-Inflicted Disaster"

If at first you don't succeed, waste a few thousand more Russian lives...

Having already failed twice in its attempts to take part of Kharkiv oblast, the Kremlin, facing yet another embarrassing failure at Pokrovsk, has decided that attacking Kharkiv again is a clever means of diverting Ukrainian resources. Except for the fact that this is one of Ukraine's most heavily defended, drone protected sectors. Russians sent to raise flags for propaganda videos are routinely eliminated before they can even reach their objectives. If this is their best alternative, one shudders to think what the bad ones are. JL

RFU News reports:

The latest Russian push toward Vovchansk is a third attempt at a Kharkiv offensive, and it has already exposed itself as a strategic blunder. Ukrainian defenses here have been fortified for more than a year. The approaches are densely mined, covered by thermal drones, FPV teams, and infantry ambushes. Russian forces sent a flag bearer to plant the Russian flag beside a ruined house, only to be eliminated instantly by Ukrainian fire. A second flag bearer suffered the same fate. The Kharkiv offensive, already defeated twice, has again become a self-inflicted disaster. Russia has thrown hundreds more soldiers into the meat grinder, with nothing to show except dead flag bearers.

Meta Retreats From the Metaverse As $77 Billion Invested Yields Nothing

The metaverse always seemed like a delusion enabled by excess profits available to a guy who had had one good idea (Facebook), acquired the products of others to create a moat (Instagram) and has struggled ever since to come up with his next big thing. That it didn't work comes as no surprise: there was never a compelling story, let alone need; the technology itself was uncertain and while some advertising agencies thought it was cool (a clear warning sign in this era), consumers largely yawned. 

So now, a wasted $77 billion later, the larger question is where this leaves Meta. The metaverse is a black mark, suggesting flighty, arrogant, self-indulgent leadership with no clear strategy since COO Sheryl Sandberg left. And it creates negative implications for the company's future, impacting perceptions of the competence and sustainability its commitment to AI. 

 

Megan Bobrowsky and Georgia Wells report in the Wall Street Journal:

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg once called the Metaverse the future of the company. (But) Meta has seen operating losses of more than $77 billion since 2020 in its Reality Labs division, which includes its metaverse work. The company (now) plans to shift spending from the metaverse to artificial-intelligence wearables. The immersive technology hasn’t gained the traction the company had anticipated, grappling with glitchy technology, uninterested users and a lack of clarity about what it would take to succeed. Meta is now giving priority to investments in AI (though) Meta shares fell after the company warned of “aggressive” capital expenditure growth to stay competitive in the AI arms race.

New Russian Machine Gun Ground Drone Destroyed By Ukrainian Aerial Drone

The heavy machine gun-armed Russian ground drone was detected advancing in the Toretsk sector, which has been the scene of hotly contested fighting in the past few weeks.

It is interesting that the Russians tested the UGV here, reinforcing their need for alternatives to human soldiers as the cataclysmic casualty rates of the past year have made it harder to recruit and replace the fallen. That Ukrainian aerial drones identified and took out the Russian machine also suggests that the Ukrainians maintain significant advantages in the drone war. JL

Sofiia Syngaivska reports in Defense Express:

Ukraine's Phoenix drone unit in the Toretsk sector destroyed a Russian unmanned ground vehicle armed with the NSV Utyos 12.7 mm heavy machine gun. The system, intended to test new assault concepts or perform remote fire support, attempted to approach Ukrainian defensive lines. Such platforms are part of Russia's experimentation with robotic systems meant to reduce infantry exposure and probe fortified areas. The Ukrainian operators detected it early, tracked its movement pattern, and destroyed it before it could close the distance or inflict damage. Destruction of the system underscores how difficult it is for Russia to introduce new technologies on a battlefield where Ukrainian drones dominate.

In US, Europe Big Poll Majorities Reject Witkoff Plan As Benefiting Russia

The revelations about Trump special envoy Witkoff's blatant favoritism for Moscow continue to generate negative reaction to the infamous 28 point 'peace plan' which now appears to be a dead letter for all intents and purposes. And to make matters worse, in addition to popular repudiation of the plan in the US and Europe, Putin has emphatically rejected any compromise, evidently still believing the exaggerations his military is feeding him about their 'success' on the battlefield.

A subtle and largely unreported sideline to this is the more prominent role in the negotiations now being played by Trump son-in-law Kushner. While clearly also eager to score a big financial deal as Kushner did with the Saudis, observers are now suggesting that Trump has inserted Kushner into the process because he is embarrassed by Witkoff's ham-handedness and wants someone closer to him - and with better diplomatic skills, if not experience - to manage the deal-making so that even if it collapses, it does not look so obviously like amateur hour. JL

Chris York reports in the Kyiv Independent:

A majority in the US and Europe believe forcing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, or limiting the size of Ukraine's army would be handing Moscow a victory. 64% of Germans, 64% of Poles, 70% of French, 79% of Britons, and 74% of Americans think it matters to their countries that Ukraine defends its sovereignty from Russian aggression." Across Europe and America the public reject concessions Ukraine would be forced to make under the Witkoff plan  — including reducing Ukraine’s military and conceding occupied regions - and feel they would hand Russia victory. The clear result of this polling is that they think no deal is better than a bad deal that benefits Russia and leaves Ukraine vulnerable."

Russian Armor Assault on Myrnohrad Ends In Disaster As Drones Wipe Them Out

Yeah, so about those Putin claims that Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad have been taken. Memo to Kremlin strategists: maybe don't believe everything your military commanders tell you. 

Putin is just desperate to prove to Trump, Xi, Modi, Kim and every other autocrat he can collar that his Ukrainian victory is 'inevitable.' But it seems the only thing standing between him and that boast is a) the Ukrainian military, and b) his own military. Russian forces tried again to assault Myrnohrad this week with a heavily armored column of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. All are now flaming wreckage. Ukraine's ostensible winter fog problem (as if winter fog hasn't been present since the invasion almost four years ago - and for millenia before that) has, like most other challenges, by Ukrainian ingenuity: ground drones with sensors, electronic hacking of Russian radio traffic and AI-enhanced aerial drones. It is safe to assume that Russia will now go back to small unit infiltration attempts until it can round up some new unroasted armor. JL

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

The Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade attacked with up-armored turtle tanks and other vehicles on Tuesday, clearly hoping a low-clinging fog would obscure the mechanized assault from overhead surveillance and attack. It didn't work. The Russians were still kilometers from the wide no-man's-land when disaster struck. "One of the tanks got stuck in an anti-tank ditch, after which the column was quickly taken under fire control." The Ukrainians knocked out three tanks and eight other armored vehicles—a significant blow to Russian mechanized capability in the sector.

OpenAI Lost 6% of Users To Google's Gemini 3 In A Week; No Profit Until 2030

It has been clear for over a generation that things move fast in tech - but they may be accelerating. A month ago many headlines were asking whether OpenAI was too big to fail. Now there are questions about whether it can survive.

Reports that Google was openly and successfully challenging OpenAI appeared just over a week ago. Data now reveal that OpenAI lost as much as 6% of its users to Google's Gemini 3, especially surprising since commentary earlier in the year suggested Google itself was roadkill in the face of AI. It also seems that Anthropic's Claude is emerging as the corporate AI of choice, challenging OpenAI's dominance as many consumers will likely convert to whichever brand their employers' use. And as if that weren't enough, OpenAI itself acknowledged that it would probably not be profitable until 2030, a lifetime in tech terms. As worrisome, the company's financial model assumes it will have captured 44% of the world's non-Chinese users by then, a figure which seems...aspirational...JL 

Joe Hindy reports in Mashable and Pyush Shukla reports in Economic Times:

OpenAI lost 6% of its traffic since Google's Gemini 3 launched. ChatGPT went from 203 million average daily visits to 191 million, meaning OpenAI lost 12 million people per day over the last week. Some of that may be due to Thanksgiving, but the problems started months ago when GPT-5 was released. Criticism was so intense that OpenAI brought back GPT-4o. In addition, OpenAI may not make money until 2030. New financial estimates suggest the company could face a $207 billion shortfall. OpenAI's model assumes 3 billion users by 2030— 44% of the world’s adult population outside China—and a paid conversion rate rising from 5% to 10%.The question many investors are asking is: Can OpenAI’s revenue ever catch up to its infrastructure bill?