Russian Donbas Gains 'Remain Tactical, Lack Operational Significance'

Despite the chronically ominous heavy breathing from western media which have predicted 200 of the last two Russian advances, better informed analysts are characterizing Russian activity as 'tactical,' meaning of limited strategic importance. 

Operational significance requires that the Russian high command is capable of exploiting battlefield opportunities, a likelihood which past experience in this war suggests is far from certain. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

Russian gains remain tactical and Russian forces have not restored operational maneuver to the battlefield yet. The current Russian advances may fall short of their operational objectives, as did initial Russian frontal assaults against Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk earlier in 2024. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. 

Map: ISW

ISW: Russia advances in western Donetsk Oblast; gains remain tactical, lack immediate operational significance

On 24-25 November, Russian forces continued making significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast, potentially reshaping the regional military landscape. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian military elements are systematically moving closer to critical Ukrainian defensive positions.

Russia continues its efforts to capture remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast, focusing on Pokrovsk. As Russia widely utilizes the “meat assault” tactics of frontal attacks, it keeps making incremental gains despite heavy losses, with Zelenskyy reporting Russian forces outnumbering Ukrainians 8:1 in some areas, forcing retreats.

In its daily analysis, the ISW reported that geolocated footage published on 24 November revealed elements of the Russian 5th Tank Brigade from the Eastern Military District advancing to the eastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka. Russian milbloggers additionally claimed advances northeast and southeast of the settlement.

The Russian military is concentrating efforts on eliminating a small pocket east of the O0510 Kurakhove-Velyka Novosilka road. Footage indicates the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade has advanced to Pobiedy Street in central Kurakhove. Russian milbloggers reported seizing Romanivka and making gains in surrounding fields.

Ukrainian Volunteer Army Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk highlighted Velyka Novosilka’s significance as a crucial logistics point. The potential seizure of this settlement would allow Russian forces to more actively threaten Hulyaipole and Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Military observers noted that while these advances are tactically significant, they do not automatically indicate a complete Ukrainian frontline collapse. The Russian military would need to seize over 8,000 square kilometers to achieve their objective of controlling the entire Donetsk Oblast.

 

The current Russian advances demonstrate potential operational strategies, including pushing west along the H15 highway and bypassing Velyka Novosilka to threaten Ukrainian ground lines of communication. However, the success of these maneuvers depends on continued coordination between Eastern and Southern Military District command elements.

“Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline,” ISW says.

The think tank concludes:

“Russian gains remain tactical and Russian forces have not restored operational maneuver to the battlefield yet. The current Russian advances may fall short of their operational objectives, as did initial Russian frontal assaults against Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk earlier in 2024.”