A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Mar 16, 2024

Russian Border Regions Close Schools, Malls Due To Ukraine Cross-Border Attacks

Russian forces appear incapable of ousting anti-Putin Russian troops who crossed into Russian territory earlier this week and show no signs of leaving. 

In addition to capturing a platoon or more of Russian soldiers who surrendered, the Ukrainian allies have now forced Russian authorities to close all schools and shopping malls in the affected regions as fighting escalates. JL 

Andrew Carey and Maria Kostenko report in CNN:

All schools and colleges in parts of the Russian region of Belgorod will be closed on Monday and Tuesday following an increase in Ukrainian attacks on the territory, the region’s governor announced. Schools and colleges in the affected districts have effectively been closed from Tuesday evening last week. Shopping malls will also be closed Sunday and Monday.Ukrainian groups of Russian fighters on Tuesday mounted a cross-border attack in Belgorod while Belgorod city suffered heavy drone strikes and shelling. The attacks have brought the war in Ukraine to Russians largely isolated from the conflict.

After Sinking One-Third Of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine Building Its Own

For a country without a navy, Ukraine has sunk an impressive number of Russian ships. 

Now it is beginning to build its own surface fleet, designed both to protect its coasts and to harass an enemy like Russia by targeting submarines, aircraft and other ships. JL 

Rostyslav Khotin reports in RFE/RL:

A two-ship deal between the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and Turkish engineering firm STM was inked in 2020 and cost Kyiv $256 million. The corvettes belong to the Turkish-designed Ada-class, which feature stealth technology making them difficult to detect. The ships are fitted with anti-ship and anti-submarine weaponry: helicopters, hydroacoustics, and electronic detection systems that can classify underwater noises. The vessels will be equipped with the American Harpoon anti-ship system as well as anti-aircraft missiles, mounted artillery, large-caliber machine guns and torpedo tubes. Britain also pledged two minesweeping ships to Ukraine

How AI Is Moving Into Physical World To Better Manage Production, Distribution etc

Not only will technology power machines, but determine what they should do next. JL 

Cade Metz reports in the New York Times:

The AI systems that drive online chatbots and image generators will also power machines in warehouses, on roadways and in homes. A robotics company is creating ways for robots to pick up, move and sort items shuttled through warehouses and distribution centers. Its goal is to help robots gain an understanding of what is going on around them and decide what they should do next. By analyzing both a collection of photos and the captions that describe those photos a system can grasp the relationships between the two. This means robots will become more nimble by learning from digital data and begin to handle the unexpected.

Russians Increasingly Desperate As Two-Thirds Of Pre-Invasion Armor Vehicles Gone

Hence the growing Russian use of unarmored Chinese golf carts for futile attacks on Ukrainian defenses - and the failure of Russian forces to advance post-Avdiivka. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

If they weren’t having problems with vehicle-generation, the Russians wouldn’t be sending turret-less T-62s into battle—to say nothing of sending golf carts. Struggling to generate combat vehicles after two years of hard fighting that has cost them 3,500 IFVs - two-thirds of the pre-war force - the Russians visibly are getting desperate. The Russians are finding it increasingly difficult fully to equip their front-line regiments and brigades as their losses outpace both new production and the recovery of old weapons from long-term storage. “Russia’s resources are not endless.”

Anti-Putin Russians Capture 25 Moscow Soldiers Inside Belgorod Oblast

The Anti-Putin Russian units allied with Ukraine remain across the Russian border inside Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts and have now taken 25 Russian soldiers prisoners. 

The captured Russian POWs appear to be reinforcements sent to mine the roads around the Ukrainian allies' incursion in order to prevent them from advancing further and taking more territory. They seem to have not been given accurate intelligence about how far the invading Ukrainian allies had penetrated, leading to their capture. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

In Belgorod Oblast, soldiers of the Russian Volunteer Corps resistance captured 25 servicemen and a senior lieutenant who had been the commander of the engineering company of the military unit 54708. While mining the territory, his car came under fire. The Russian senior lieutenant said everyone who was with him had died during the task. The Russian Volunteer Corps soldiers also showed the interrogation of the captured officer.

Ukraine Special Forces Eliminate Russians Attempting To Mine Dnipro River

Having failed to push the Ukrainians back from their expanding cross-Dnipro bridgehead, Russian troops tried sowing mines in waterways leading to the Dnipro River. 

The Russians were discovered almost immediately by Ukrainian drones and then eliminated by Ukrainian Special Forces. JL 

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SOF) prevented an attempt by the Russians to mine the approaches to the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. During aerial reconnaissance on the Southern front, operators of the 73rd Marine Centre of the SOF found a Russian car with a gun carriage and two boats. The Russians were planning to mine reservoirs in one of the settlements. The SOF unit quickly hit Russian targets with UAVs destroying a Russian dugout, a motor vehicle and a boat.

Mar 15, 2024

Failing To Advance Post-Avdiivka, Russian Reserves Needed Vs Stabilized Ukrainians

The Kremlin and Russia's military leadership believed that once they took Avdiivka, they would begin to roll back Ukrainian defenses, especially as Russian-corrupted US Republicans held up further military aid to Ukraine. 

The Russians were as right about this prediction as they were in 2022 about taking Kyiv in 3 days. Which is to say, the Ukrainian defenses have not only held, but have now forced Russia to commit reserves it had saved for a strategic breakthrough - that never happened. JL  

The Institute For the Study of War reports:

The Russian military is committing tactical reserves to Russian offensive efforts in the Lyman direction, near Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk to prevent Ukrainian forces from further stabilizing the frontline. These reserves were meant to exploit an envisioned Russian breakthrough of Ukrainian defenses, not support offensive operations against stabilizing Ukrainian defenses. These troops would be inadequate to permit the Russian military to collapse Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces have struggled to achieve more than gradual marginal tactical gains in Ukraine since mid-2022, and the introduction of limited reserves does not change Russian prospects for significant gains because Russian forces have not demonstrated the capability to conduct sound mechanized maneuvers to take large swaths of territory rapidly

As Anti-Putin Invaders Blow Up Army Facilities, Russia Bombs Own Territory

As Ukraine-allied anti-Putin Russian troops continued their attack on Russian border communities, the Russian air force was observed bombing its own territory in an attempt to drive the invaders back. The anti-Putin troops have now blown up two Russian army ammunition warehouses in the area. 

Russian residents of Belgorod are complaining that Kremlin forces have placed Grad rocket units in the midst of residential neighborhoods in hopes it will deter Ukrainian forces from shelling them there. At the same time, local authorities are now preventing civilians from evacuating because the Kremlin wants them to vote in this weekend's foreordained Putin re-election. JL

Kaitlin Lewis reports in Newsweek and Kateryna Zakharchenko reports in the Kyiv Post:

Russia's Air Force has bombed its own territory near the border with Ukraine amid a multi-pronged incursion by anti-Putin Russians. And the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) shared on Thursday a drone camera video showing the destruction of ammunition depots in the Kursk region where its fighters attacked. The warehouses were in the village of Tetkino in southwestern Russia. Civilians in Belgorod complain that the Russian military has deployed military equipment in residential areas and is opening fire from there. Belgorod authorities are noe blocking the evacuation of Russian civilians to keep people in the region to participate in the election which runs from March 15-17.

Ukraine Attacks, Damages 4 More Major Russian Oil Refineries

Ukraine continued its long range attacks on Russia's oil refining capacity for a second day, hitting four more refineries deep within Russia, three of them major producers. 

The strategy is both to degrade Russia's economy and to send a message to the Russian people that Putin is increasingly incapable of protecting them from this war that he started. JL 

Rob Picheta and colleagues report in CNN:

Kyiv intensifies its cross-border strikes days before President Vladimir Putin’s anticipated re-election. Ukraine struck three Russian oil refineries targeted in the cities of Ryazan, about 130 miles southeast of Moscow; Kstovo, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, nearly 300 miles east of the capital; and Kirishi in Russia’s northwest. The trio of facilities are among Russia’s largest refineries. A fourth facility – the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery in Rostov-on-Don – was also hit. Ukraine is “implementing a well-planned strategy to decrease Russian economic potential.”

Elite Ukrainian Drone Units Launch Night Operations Against Russians

Drone technology and lethality have improved significantly, giving Ukrainian units an advantage in their efforts to degrade Russian combat operations. JL 

Neil Hauer reports in CBC News:

Elite drone units searching for Russian troops in the dead of night are playing a greater role in its defence. Ukraine is now using an enormous amount of drones, acquiring as many as 50,000 first-person view (FPV) drones per month. The art of drone warfare is a subtle one. The operators must contend with obstacles from Russian small arms fire to inclement weather and signal jamming. Computers display different video feeds, between live drone imagery and satellite maps of the location being surveyed. A drone dropped an incendiary grenade engulfing a trench in fire. There was no visible movement when the flames subsided. "Another one for our highlight reel."

Anti-Putin Russian Attack Has Turned Border Region Into "Active Combat Zone"

Russian paratroops have reportedly been diverted from elsewhere on the front to meet the incursion by anti-Putin Russian groups, now in its third day. JL 

Reuters reports:

Russians opposed to the Kremlin were pressing an incursion into Russian territory and had turned two border regions into "active combat zones. Kursk and Belgorod regions are now areas of active combat actions." Three Ukraine-based groups issued statements saying they were pursuing armed operations in the Belgorod and Kursk regions and asking residents to evacuate towns and villages for their own safety. The Ukrainian assaults on Russian territory in recent days, including long-range drone attacks and incursions by Ukraine-based Russian proxies, have come as Putin's expected re-election nears.

Dozens of US Corporations Paid Top Execs More Than They Paid In Taxes

Economic policy as it affects taxes in the US appears to have become significantly skewed towards executive compensation. 

This is a problem because it reveals a misallocation of resources, as national and societal needs are sublimated to personal enrichment. This ends up costing the US more money in the long run because it has a cascading impact on serious challenges which requires additional costs rather than improvements which in turn can generate positive balance of payments. JL 

Callum Jones reports in The Guardian:

Senior executives at 35 firms - from Tesla to T-Mobile US - received compensation worth more than the net tax payments of their respective employers between 2018 and 2022, the research found. All the companies generated billions of dollars in profit over the same period. The collective net federal income tax bill of all 35 companies was negative $1.72bn over the five-year stretch – meaning they collectively received more money back from the government in refunds than they paid. Over the same period, executive compensation for senior executives at these firms – including salaries, bonuses, perks, benefits, stock options and stock awards – stood at $9.49bn.

Mar 14, 2024

Russia Evacuating Civilians In Areas Of Ukraine Cross-Border Attacks

While Russia denies anything is amiss and claims the cross-border incursion has been defeated with hundreds of casualties, the reality is that Russian authorities are evacuating civilians from the affected areas. 

Russian troops and police reportedly fled rather than fight the anti-Putin/pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteers. JL 

Valentyna Romanenko reports in Ukraine Pravda:

Authorities in the Russian Federation's Belgorod Oblast decided to evacuate local residents due to the operations carried out by Russian [pro-Ukrainian] military volunteer groups. The Ukrainian-alled Russian Volunteer Corps issued a call to all residents of Kursk and Bryansk oblasts who were unable to evacuate to seek shelter immediately. An intercepted conversation with a local resident indicates that the people of Grayvoron district, Belgorod Oblast are being evacuated.  "Uncle texted that buses are going. Grayvoron is being evacuated." There are casualties in the city.

The Reason Ukraine Has Fire Control Over Russians Around Bakhmut

Ukrainian forces have made it harder for the Russians to supply, reinforce and attack around Bakhmut because they have established artillery fire control over supply routes leading to the rubble which once constituted a city. 

The Russians transferred many of their own artillery assets to Avdiivka and are now having trouble bringing them back, creating an opportunity for Ukraine to stymie Russian operations on this front. JL 

The Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces continued undermining the Russian offensive efforts by maintaining fire control of key Russian logistical routes. The reason why Russians are failing to provide cover for supplies is a scarcity of artillery in this area, without which Russians cannot suppress Ukrainian artillery fire. Russian vehicles, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and supply trucks, were destroyed. Most Russian artillery systems in this area have been relocated which the Ukrainians are exploiting to the fullest extent.

How Just 16 Companies Dominate Google Search Results

When people initiate a "google" search they believe they are getting an objective set of alternatives. 

The reality is that the results they see are dominated by just `16 companies, mostly large media conglomerates which both own multiple sites and titles - and, as importantly - increasingly cross-reference and connect their information. JL  

Glen Allsopp reports in Detailed:

Across 10,000 terms which cover products in every niche you can think of (home, beauty, tech, automotive, cooking, travel, sports, education and many more), these 16 companies ranked on the first page of 8,574 (or 85%) of them.When a content-focused site ranked first across 186,444 Google search results, 86.1% of the time it was owned by a large media brand. The sixteen companies in this report owned 12 of the top 20 content sites and 7 of the top 10.

Why Russia's Air Force Is Stumbling As Ukraine's Gets Stronger

Network integration - a concept familiar to any contemporary individual or business - is aiding Ukraine in ways that improved both the effectiveness and the lethality of its air defenses just as Russia increases its air sorties in hopes of improving, in vain, so far, its battlefield performance. JL 

Major General Gordon Davis, (USA Ret), reports in the Center For European Policy Analysis:

Ukrainian air defense forces have demonstrated significant abilities in both technical and tactical innovation, especially US, and Ukrainian IT expertise in integrating Western and Ukrainian air defense system components to allow capable configurations and a more comprehensive air threat picture. Intelligence gained from Russian aircraft downed over Ukraine also enhances the effectiveness of Western air defenses. Network integration enhances air defense lethality. This multiplies air defense coverage and can increase its survivability through dispersion (assuming frequent movement, good concealment, and radar emission discipline).

How UKraine Is Turning Cross-Border Attack Into Another Attrition Trap For Russia

The cross-border attack is not just an embarrassment for Putin, it is a means of drawing Russian troops from elsewhere on the front lines. 

And since Tetkino is surrounded by Ukrainian territory on three sides, it is a perfect area in which to decimate counterattacking Russians. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Enough legionnaires got across the border to drive out the police and soldiers garrisoning Tetkino. As the Liberty of Russia Legion dug in, a spokesman promised “a difficult night” for any counterattacking Russians. The raid could draw Russian forces away from the front line in Ukraine. Tetkino lies inside a 25-square-mile salient jutting into Ukraine. Ukrainian territory surrounds it on three sides. Worse for the Russians in Tetkino, a river abuts the town on the west, meaning there’s just one way into the town from RussiaAs the raid developed, the legionnaires shot down a Russian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighter over Belgorod.

Ukraine's Cross-Border Attacks On Russia Send Military and Political Message

The pro-Ukrainian Russian troops whose cross-border attacks two days ago unnerved Moscow, appear to be consolidating their capture of at least one town and are advancing, using armored vehicles meaning that this is no hit-and run raid. JL

Andrew Kramer and Maria Varenikova report in the New York Times:

Ukraine staged a flurry of cross-border ground attacks with tanks and other armored vehicles and long-range drone strikes into Russia, assaults aimed at disrupting President Vladimir V. Putin’s re-election campaign messaging that the war had turned in Moscow’s favor. The anti-Putin Russian groups posted videos filmed inside Russia, showing tracked, armored vehicles driving in darkness through a forest and soldiers taking cover during a firefight. The cross-border attacks are intended to unnerve Russians and undermine Mr. Putin’s efforts to insulate them from the war.

Mar 13, 2024

Russian Naval Chief Fired After Repeated Black Sea Ship, Plane Losses

Somebody had to take the blame. 

And at least the Russian Admiral in Chief didnt fall out of window. Yet. JL 

Christopher Miller and Max Seddon report in the Financial Times:

President Vladimir Putin has sacked the commander of Russia’s navy after it suffered a series of humiliating losses in the Black Sea. Ukraine has sunk (a number of) Russian warships and shot down many high-value aircraft, forcing Russia to relocate its Black Sea fleet and halt round-the-clock air reconnaissance of the battlefield. Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, who had led the navy since 2019, was replaced with Alexander Moiseev, commander of its Northern Fleet. The decision underscores how Ukraine has forced Russia to retreat in the Black Sea.

Ukraine Missiles Blow Up Russian Floating Command Post Near Kherson

Additional reports indicate that two senior Russian commanders working in the ship were also killed by the missile strike. 

Ukraine's targeted attacks continue to degrade Russia's ability to command and coordinate its troops in occupied Ukraine. JL 

Ellie Cook reports in Newsweek:

Ukraine destroyed a Russian tanker that Moscow was using the vessel as a command center, with the ship serving to launch FPV drones,  to carry electronic warfare (EW) equipment and for surveillance. It was beached at the Kinburn Spit, currently controlled by Russia, which sits on the mouth of the Dnipro River and controls vessels reaching and leaving the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv.

Ukrainian FPV Drone Pilots Destroy Growing Score Of Russian Armor

This damage was done by Ukrainian drone operators just in the last two weeks. JL 

Militarnyi reports:

FPV drone operators of the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade have damaged six armored vehicles and Russian troops. The drones hit two Ural trucks, one tank, a Msta-S self-propelled howitzer, an armored vehicle K-53949 Taifun/Akhmat, and a BTR-50 tracked armored personnel carrier. Ukraine's 14th Mechanized Brigade destroyed a Russian Buk-M1-2 SAM system’s 9A310M1-2 TELAR and a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system. The 3rd Assault Brigade destroyed four enemy D-30 howitzers and two D-20 howitzers on the outskirts of Avdiivka.

Ukraine Hits Another Major Russian Oil Refinery, Further Curtails Production, Export

Ukraine is continuing its successful campaign to curtail Russian energy production and export, reducing Russia's fuel supply and the foreign currency it derives from oil exports. 

Even before this latest strike, the Kremlin was forced to halt oil exports because of the impact Ukrainian drone attacks were having on the availability and cost of fuel inside Russia. JL

Ukraine Pravda reports:

Lukoil, owner of a major oil refinery responsible for processing 5% of Russia's oil by volume at Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod province, reported that the operation of the facility’s refining equipment had been suspended "due to the incident". Drones hit one of the distillation towers, which is the most crucial piece of equipment in the refining process. The fuel and energy complex caught fire as a result of the drone attacks.

Pro-Ukraine Russian Fighters Seize Village Near Kursk, Battle Moscow Troops

Whatever the ultimate impact of their raid, that Pro-Ukrainian Russians have again crossed the Russian border and at least temporarily defeated Kremlin troops is an embarrassment for Putin days before his guaranteed 'reelection.' 

It is also a sign that Russia has so concentrated its forces around Avdiivka and a few other Ukrainian sectors that its borders are unsecured. JL 

Alisa Orlova and Julia Struck report in the Kyiv Post:

Russian volunteer forces fighting alongside Kyiv on Wednesday, March 13 seized Tyotkino village in Russia’s Kursk region and urged civilians to flee Belgorod and Kursk, warning of impending large-scale attacks on military targets in these Russian border cities. The Freedom of Russia Legion released a video depicting a morning clash with Russian forces saying they were engaged in active combat.

Who Is Going To Profit Most From Generative AI?

Research reveals that incumbent big tech firms have dominant advantages in Gen AI similar to those in cloud computing, which limits opportunities for venture investors due to the usual issues with scale, cost and data quality.

That said, there appear to be growth possibilities at the end user interface and for those with specific domain expertise and data. But this is a market already consolidating so investors need to pick their shots with care. JL 

Kartik Hosanagar and Ramayya Krishnan report in MIT Sloan Management Review:

Since the launch of ChatGPT, venture capital firms plowed money into generative AI startups. But who will capture the value of this market, and what are the determinants of value capture? The market for models is consolidating in the same way that most of the market share (and value) for cloud services was captured by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Applications that boast a large, loyal user base stand to capture the most value from generative AI by leveraging their distributional advantage. In the absence of model- or data-based differentiation, companies will need to distinguish themselves at the user interface. Entrepreneurs building startups without access to proprietary data or a large installed base will have to build to build on top of tasks, for initial products and services.

Mar 12, 2024

Why the Siberians Now Attacking Inside Russia Are Fighting For Ukraine

Siberia, infamous for its weather and for the Stalinist gulag it harbored, is home both to a wide variety of minority groups who are discriminated against politically and economically. It is home to 5 of Russia's 10 poorest regions. 

Ukraine's Siberian Battalion, currently one of three units made up of Russian citizens fighting with the Ukrainians who have launched a major raid into Russia, has attracted a large number of Siberians, many of them from minority ethnic groups. They are fighting against the Putin government for all that they and their people have suffered at his government's hands. JL 

Emmanuelle Chaze reports in the Kyiv Independent:

The Siberian Battalion was the third unit established by Ukraine for Russians who want to join the fight against the Kremlin. The battalion was meant primarily for ethnic minorities coming from Siberia, including Buryats, Yakuts and Tuvans. Siberia covers 77% of Russia’s territory and is home to ethnic minorities largely disenfranchised by Russia. Nine of the 10 poorest Russian regions, in terms of GRP per capita, have a substantial minority population. Five are in Siberia. "This will draw troops and resources away from other areas of the front and is part of a campaign by Ukraine to put the Russian leadership on edge and its population on notice they are not immune from the war."

In Surprise Tank Raid, Ukraine Wipes Out Attacking Russian Kupiansk Force

Despite Russia's stated objective of taking Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces continue to outmaneuver and outperform them, launching surprise counterattacks which have decimated assembling Russian units behind the front and thwarting assault plans. JL 

The Euromaidan Press reports:

Around Kupiansk, Ukrainians doubled down on their counterattacks, and have regained a good part of the ground. On its northern flank, Ukrainian reconnaissance detected a high number of Russian personnel, which led to an unexpected tank raid by the Ukrainian 54th Mechanized Brigade. Geolocated combat footage shows two Ukrainian tanks sweeping through Russian positions. That Ukrainian forces are conducting armored attacks demonstrates that Ukrainian forces retain their capability east of the Oskil River. With this tank raid, the 54th Mech destroyed most accumulated Russian forces, undermining planned offensives toward Kyslivka.

Congress Can't Legally Ban TikTok Due To 1st Amendment, But Has Other Options

The US Congress seems hell-bent on banning TikTok, mostly as an easy gesture meant to signify opposition to China (and fealty to Fox News, Facebook, et al who resent TikTok's success).

But it seems equally clear that the courts will overturn the ban, whether absolute or indirect, as a violation of First Amendment rights. Congress could pass a data privacy bill that would address many of the same concerns but fervent opposition from Big Tech companies that benefit from all that free personal data makes such a move unlikely. JL 

Nicole Narea reports in Vox:

Congress can’t ban TikTok unless it can prove it poses legitimate privacy and national security concerns. The bar for such a justification is necessarily high in order to protect Americans’ First Amendment rights. "Banning TikTok is obviously unconstitutional.” A federal court recently overturned a Montana law that sought to ban TikTok. Legal experts say an indirect ban may also be unconstitutional. If lawmakers are serious about protecting privacy and national security, they should pass comprehensive digital privacy legislation. “The TikTok bill would fail to protect from threats to privacy posed by criminals, private companies, and foreign actors. Data privacy is the solution, not bans of certain apps.”

The First Ukrainian F-16s and Pilots Ready To Fight By July

The training and preparation of the F-16s, their pilots and ground crews have progressed at lightning speed compared with the usual years-long processes required for NATO certification.

And despite snarky, anti-Ukraine comments from New York Times' reporters, NATO officials are impressed with the way countries have worked together to realize this initiative. JL 

Lara Jakes reports in the New York Times:

Twelve pilots so far are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain and the United States. By the time the pilots return to Ukraine, six F-16s will have been delivered out of 45 of the fighter jets that European allies have promised. Their highly anticipated arrival over the battlefield will come not a moment too soon. The F-16s as not only support Ukraine but, by extension, ensure security across Europe.

Ukraine Shot Down 2 Russian AWACS. Then Blew Up Factory Where They're Built

After shooting down two strategically critical Russian AWACS planes within six weeks this winter, Ukraine has now attacked the factory where they are built and serviced, possibly eliminating a fourth undergoing final preparation there. 

The message is that Ukraine is going to continue attacking Russia's strategic assets wherever they may be. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russia (invaded) Ukraine with 9 flyable A-50 radar planes, which sensor coverage over the front. The A-50s and 10 or 15 experienced officers who crew them are critical, hard-to-replace assets. After Ukraine shot down 2 A-50s this year, the Russian air force grounded its surviving A-50s and scrambled to replace the 3 lost planes through Beriev’s Aviation Technical Complex in Taganrog, Russia on the Azov Sea coast 80 miles from the front line. So of course the Ukrainians promptly droned the Taganrog factory. Ukraine damaged or destroyed their 4th A-50 in two years, and third in less than two months.

3 Ukraine-Based Units of Russian Nationals Launch Major Raid Into Russia

Three paramilitary groups comprised of Russian nationals who support Ukraine and oppose Putin, have launched a major raid into Russia around Belgorod and Kursk. 

The paramilitaries are fighting with Russian home guard troops as Moscow says it is sending reinforcements to battle the incursion. The raid appears timed to embarrass Putin prior to his foreordained reelection. JL 

Jaroslav Yukiv reports in the BBC:

Three Ukraine-based Russian paramilitary groups have crossed into Russia and are now fighting government troops there. The Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) and Siberian Battalion (SB) posted videos showing their fighters in Russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions. The Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), also published footage of what its fighters engaging with Russian government troops. Two villages are now in control of "liberation forces". The paramilitary groups are "independent organisations" of Russian nationals, and therefore operating "at home."

Mar 11, 2024

"Tense But Stable:" Why Russia Can't Break Through Ukraine's Southern Line

The Russians are also short of artillery and they continue to employ suicidal assault tactics without heed to the loss of their men and equipment. 

As a result, the Ukrainians are quietly confident that they will hold. JL

The Economist reports:

Since the fall of Avdiivka Russian troops have launched several assaults to recapture Robotyne (but) the Russians have had fewer shells to fire recently, perhaps because they expended so many in their long battle to capture Avdiivka. The Ukrainians are short of Soviet-calibre artillery shells, but they have nato-standard ones. Despite the lack of shells, they do not expect the line to crumble here. Reports that Ukrainian forces have lost ground in this sector are not true. Soon after the fall of Avdiivka the Russians packed large numbers of men into infantry fighting vehicles and charged at Robotyne. “They were destroyed immediately.”

The Week Europe Stood Up and Broke Putin's Ukraine Narrative

French President Macron publicly said the unthinkable out loud. And while pearl clutchers and hand wringers on both sides of the Atlantic claimed he didn't - couldn't - really mean it, a funny thing happened on the way to ceding the narrative to Putin: other European states joined in, including some of NATO's big guns (literally and figuratively): Poland, Finland and the Czech Republic. The Baltics were already there, so in the space of a week, a significant European plurality not only stood up to Putin's nuclear sabre-rattling, they saw him and raised him.  

The implications are profound. Instead of backing down, Europe is saying it recognizes the Russian threat and intends to meet it. That they are the ones he better not cross, not the other way around. With Russia having drawn down much of its weapons inventory, its troops slaughtered across the Donbas and southern Ukraine, its post Avdiivka advances thwarted, its air force now a turkey shoot target and its Black Sea Fleet scampering to safer waters, more than just the narrative is changing. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Its been two weeks since President Macron mentioned European forces being deployed in Ukraine. Until then, NATO troops in Ukraine had been taboo. It was a sign NATO is no longer dancing to Putin’s tune (in) defining Europe’s interest. This week other European states broke from Russian reflexive control, (including) the Czechs and Poles. European troops might go to Ukraine now to do training, seemingly impossible before. The Polish government said it was not inconceivable for European forces to be deployed in Ukraine. We are hearing the breaking of Putin’s attempts to control the narrative. Putin sees his nuclear threats failing and has to wonder if he might do something resulting in direct European support.

Russian Reality: US Stopped Arms 5 Months Ago, But Moscow Advance Has Failed

Krynky, Robotyne, Bakhmut, Kupiansk - even Avdiivka. In the five months since Russian-compromised US Republicans halted arms shipments to Ukraine, the Russians have failed to make any significant advances. This includes Avdiivka, reduced to a smoking heap of rubble without military or economic value, where a preponderance of Russian troops and artillery proved incapable of exploiting  Ukrainian ammunition shortages to make further gains. 

Experts reveal that if the Russians continue to 'advance' at this pace, it would take them 18 months to achieve their objectives. But that doesnt even account for the stiffened Ukrainian resistance, meaning that it would likely take longer. Nor does it consider the strategic Russian losses to their air force, to the Black Sea Fleet nor to logistics capabilities. In short, Putin may never achieve even his scaled back objectives. JL

Radu Hossu reports via General Ben Hodges on Twitter:

The objective of the Russian offensive that began in October 2023 is to reach Kramatorsk. (But) the Russian army has not advanced significantly. If it were to continue at the pace of the last few months it would need 18 months. At Kupyansk, in the last month the Russians have not advanced at all, despite the massing of 40,000 Russians and 1,000 armored vehicles. After Avdiivka, the Russians advanced 4km. At this rhythm they would reach Porkovsk in 12 months (but) the front has stabilized. It's been 5 months since the US stopped giving arms aid but Ukraine is resisting. "I don't think Russia will conquer Kramatorsk or Sloviansk, and don't think they will ever conquer Donbas."

Russian Forces Suffer "Massive Losses" In Cross-Dnipro Sector

Ukrainian Marines continue to dominate the battlefield in the cross-Dnipro east bank. The combination of artillery and drone launches from the west bank and the effectiveness of the Marine infantry on the ground has repeatedly defeated Russian attempts to push them back. 

Russian losses at Avdiivka have now caused forces elsewhere on the line, including Krynky, to be redeployed, creating opportunities for the Ukrainians to open new bridgeheads, as they have done in the past week. JL 

Ukrinform reports:

Ukraine’s Defense Forces continue to expand the existing bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro in Kherson region, inflicting heavy losses on enemy troops in the vicinity of Krynky. "Russian supply routes have been compromised as we continue to expand the sector of our influence on enemy movement. We needed to clear a 20-30km strip in order to make life easier on the western bank, so the enemy's artillery could not hit this area. Over the past day, we hit 10 artillery systems. The enemy is suffering really heavy losses in positions not far from our bridgeheads. More than 50 have been killed in action near Krynky in the past day.”

Ukraine's Maneuver Defense Halts Russians (Again) At Robotyne

Russian forces attempting to advance at Robotyne have again been defeated by Ukraine's combined arms maneuver defensive tactics. 

The Ukrainians are using infantry, artillery, drones and armor to anticipate and then disrupt Russian attacks before they are launched, then finishing off those few who make past the start line. JL 

The Euromaidan Press reports:

Ukrainian forces are effectively employing the tactic of maneuver defense. The Ukrainian Army recovered all the lost positions in Robotyne. Ukrainians also reestablished control over the southern trenches. Ukrainian forces launched counterbattery fire to undermine the Russian artillery preparation which slowed the pace of the Russian offensive effort and minimized the scale of attempted advances. (Ukrainian counterbattery) is very effective, thanks to HIMARS. Ukrainian drone crews also destroyed Russian T-80 tanks.

How Enterprises Use AI To Create More Effective Key Performance Indicators

The primary benefits of using AI to improve and transform KPIs is that they generate more accurate and dynamic insights about organizational performance in an economy which is increasingly driven by real-time data within rapidly shifting markets. 

The results, so far, reveal that AI may improve financial performance by as much as three times previous standards, while generating more effective information around intangibles like collaboration and organizational behavior. In this socio-economic environment, optimizing performance in this way provides significant strategic advantage. JL 

Michael Schrage and colleagues report in MIT Sloan Management Review:

Key performance indicators (KPIs) increasingly fail to deliver the insights leaders need. Companies that revise their KPIs with AI are three times more likely to see greater financial benefit. Organizations using AI to create new KPIs are also more likely to realize benefits around alignment, collaboration, efficacy and efficiency. AI-enriched KPIs better describe ongoing performance, more effectively anticipate future performance, and make more useful recommendations to promote outcomes. Transforming static metrics into smarter and more accurate KPIs helps executives shift their strategic insight, delivering previously unattainable levels of data-driven organization, reconsidering the purpose of performance measurement and the strategic value of metrics.

Mar 10, 2024

Satellite Photos Show Russian Military Cemetaries Have Quadrupled In Size

And there's plenty of room to grow...JL 

Perkin Amalaraj reports in themailonline.com:

The final resting places for many of Russia's  military units, including the Wagner group, have multiplied in size. Images of just one section of Tula Cemetery in Moscow show that the number of graves dug quadrupled between October 2021 and April 2023. Elsewhere in Moscow, the Bogorodskoye cemetery has seemingly tripled in size, with another section being added in the same time period. The new images starkly visualise the sheer number of Russian soldiers who have died fighting Putin's invasion of Ukraine. A quarter of Russian soldiers killed come from regular military units, another quarter are from volunteer corps and the rest are convicts.

Russia Is Running Out of Armored Vehicles Due To Ukraine Losses

Russia's inventory of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, once considered inexhaustible, is beginning to look depleted.

Ukrainian frontline troops report seeing more old, Soviet-era equipment being used by Russian units and NATO observers with access to satellite photos reveal that storage areas in Russia are emptying. Which may help explain why Russian forces are attempting to score gains while they believe they still can. JL 

Defense Express reports:

The serious losses in equipment suffered during 2022-2023 and, especially, the losses during the battle for Avdiivka led to a situation where the bottom in the stocks of Russian armored personnel carriers and combat vehicles is beginning to show. Once considered inexhaustible, the most critical losses of Russian equipment in recent months are APCs and IFVs. There are entire segments of the frontline where Soviet-era T-55 and MT-LB are the main equipment of the attacking units, in particular where units from the Far East are. The increase in the use of equipment in the role of  combat vehicles not intended for this purpose indicates the inability of the Russians to compensate for losses suffered

What A New York Office Building Sale For $1 Says About Real Estate Market

The economic reality is that fewer people are going to the office five days a week, causing a reduction in demand for office space, especially in older, center city buildings, leading to a consequential decline in real estate values. 

On the bright side, more people than ever are moving to cities to live, suggesting that the decline may be temporary, as building owners renovate or tear down such structures in order to meet the growing demand for apartments, retail and other uses. JL 

Natalie Sherman reports in the BBC:

360 Park Avenue South has been empty since 2021 for redevelopment. The 20-storey building, which sold for $300m that year, recently drew headlines after one of the owners handed over its 29% stake to one of its partners, walking away from commitments to fund $45m more in upgrades, in exchange for $1. 20% of office space around the US was unleased at the end of 2023. The fall in demand is hitting property values, which have plunged 25% on average across the country. The declines have coincided with a sharp rise in borrowing costs, creating incentives for firms to walk away from properties, as the value of buildings sinks below what they owe on their loans.

More Ukrainian Women Joining Military, Serving In Combat Roles

The number of Ukrainian women joining the military has increased significantly since the Russia invasion. 

And an even greater proportion are volunteering to serve in combat roles from sniper to tank commander to combat medic to artillery gunner. Their impact on the military and on Ukrainian society is profound. JL 

Nicole Tung reports in the New York Times:

There has been a surge of Ukrainian women who have enlisted, and they are increasingly volunteering for combat roles. 65,000 women are currently serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, about a 30% increase since the war began. Women fill a growing number of positions in the military: combat medics in assault units; senior gunners; snipers; commanders of tank units and artillery batteries; and at least one co-pilot on a helicopter. Dozens have been wounded in battle, and some have been killed or captured.

Russia's Gas Export Ban Reveal Ukraine Drone Strikes Impact Its Refining Capacity

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries across that country are affecting Russia's refining capacity, causing higher gas prices in an election year. 

And which, in turn, has caused the Kremlin to ban gas exports, denying it essential export income. The calculus appears to be that it is better to reduce foreign currency income in the short term rather than anger Russian voters, already reeling from war-driven price inflation, who are about to go to the polls. JL  

Alya Shandra reports in Euromaidan Press:

On 1 March 2024, Russia introduced a six-month ban on gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize prices in the domestic market amid rising demand. This suggests that Russia’s refining capacity may have been temporarily reduced due to multiple Ukrainian drone strikes against refineries. The export ban is expected to relieve pressure on supplies and allow Russia to make necessary repairs to its refineries. However, the repairs are likely to take longer than usual as Western sanctions have prevented the import of some essential components. The move may also lead to increased tensions between Russia and its trading partners, who may view the ban as a protectionist measure.

How Ukraine's Marines Keep Taking More Land From Russia Across the Dnipro

Let's talk about what combined arms means in the Ukraine war context. Ukrainian Marines are not only continuing to hold their positions around Krynky on the Dnipro River's east bank - they are also making new incursions while slaughtering hundreds of Russians. 

They are doing so by coordinating their assaults with electronic warfare efforts that jam Russian drones, making it difficult for the Russians to identify their movements. The result is that the Ukrainian presence on the east bank is growing - just in time for spring. JL  

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Not only are Kyiv’s marines hanging on in Krynky, they cross the river in other spots—either for raids or, to seize a second bridgehead. Most recently, marines slipped across the river near the blasted Antonovsky Bridge, near Kherson, 19 miles west of Krynky, and dug in. To get across the river and into the dachas, the Ukrainians jammed Russian drones. By coordinating electronic warfare and troop movements, the Ukrainians create drone dead-zones—and exploit those zones to move their forces. The Dachi operation reminds us how the Ukrainians execute cross-river ops and that those tactics work. It’s the Russians who thave been dying by the hundreds while trying, and failing, to dislodge the Ukrainians.