A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Feb 3, 2025

Russia's Ukraine Advances Slowed By 50% As Troop Replacement Becomes Crisis

As January turns to February, Russian advances in Ukraine have slowed by at least 50% despite continued Kremlin pressure to attack. 

The crisis arises from both the demand and supply side: losses of Russian and North Korean troops have continued to mount while replacement levels have plunged. The reason is that troops conscripted in 2022 are now mostly dead or wounded. And though the Kremlin has increased pay and signing bonuses for those willing to volunteer, even that potential pool is depleted as the number of those willing to sell their lives for cash has begun to shrink. So with Putin wary of announcing another draft, all available convicts having been dragooned into service and eager volunteers now in short supply, Russia's ability to launch large scale assaults is severely depleted. JL

Olena Mukhina reports in the Euromaidan Press:

As of early February, Russia’s advance in Ukraine slowed significantly over the past month by about 50%. "Their forces are depleting. They mobilized a massive number of troops, but replacing losses has become a major challenge. Reserves from the 2022 mobilization have already been lost. The Russian army now relies primarily on contract soldiers drawn by financial incentives but recruitment has nearly stopped. The problem isn’t the size of the payments—it’s that even in Russia, people are divided into those willing to sell their lives for money and those who are not. The ones who were willing are gone. Recruitment is stalling while losses continue to rise each week.” 

Military expert Yevhen Dykyi told Radio NV that Russia’s advance in Ukraine has slowed significantly over the past month.

As of early February 2025, the military situation in various regions of Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk remains fluid, with both sides engaged in continued clashes. Ukrainian forces are focusing on reinforcing defensive positions and integrating new technologies, while Russian forces persist in their offensive operations across multiple fronts.

Despite the reduced pace, Russian forces continue to seize Ukrainian territory, leveraging their vast manpower. The most vulnerable areas remain Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast.

However, Dykyi highlighted a critical issue for the Russian military—severe difficulties in replacing wounded and killed soldiers.

“While the intensity of fighting remains high, Russia’s advance has slowed by about 50%. Their forces are gradually depleting, but the key word is gradually. They mobilized a massive number of troops, but replacing losses has become a major challenge. Recruitment has nearly stopped,” he explained.

Dykyi noted that Russia still has some reserves from the 2022 mobilization, but most of those troops have already been lost. The Russian army now relies primarily on contract soldiers drawn by financial incentives.

“But even that pool is running dry. The problem isn’t the size of the payments—it’s that even in Russia, people are divided into those willing to sell their lives for money and those who are not. The ones who were willing are gone. Recruitment is stalling while losses continue to rise each week,” Dykyi concluded.

Earlier, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, held a meeting on the results the Ukrainian military achieved in January 2025. He stated that the number of units withdrawn for combat readiness restoration had slightly increased during the month.

 

According to Ukraine’s army chief, key priorities for Ukraine include operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, as well as strikes on military targets deep inside Russia. The main efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain focused on maintaining defensive lines, preventing Russian advances, strengthening troop training, and expanding the use of drones.

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