We are now witnessing what the Ukrainians can do with ranged strikes, relying overwhelmingly on their own home-made systems, which are not nearly as sophisticated, accurate and powerful as western ones. The Ukrainians for another weak have kept up the attack on Russian oil refining and distribution. Ust-Luga is one of the main ports for Russia to ship out its oil to the shadow fleet. For days now, reports are that all oil shipments from the port have halted. Ukraine clearly has an excellent target set and is going about it. And if oil production and shipping in Russia is seriously degraded, this will hit the Russian economy hard. Russian oil revenues were already declining before these attacks happened.
Trump, Kellogg and Rubio are doing is basically articulating a Russian-centric view of the war; Ukraine’s government is illegitimate (though Russia’s obviously is legitimate), Russia is still a great power, Ukraine cant possible liberate its territory, and, we live in an age where great powers settle all issues in their interest.One thing that makes Rubio’s comments so pathetic is that its becoming clear that Ukraine is doing more to win the war than he understands and could do even more if properly supported by the US and others. The importance of ranged strike has become more and more obvious over the last few weeks. The reason that people like Trump (and those in the Biden Administration) have always opposed ranged strike for Ukraine is not because they do not believe Ukraine can win, its because they never wanted Ukraine to win. Limiting Ukrainian ranged strike has always been a way of saying to Putin that the US respects his position and wants to keep him in power.
And its been sadly effective.
Because right now we are more and more witnessing what the Ukrainians can do with ranged strike, even relying overwhelmingly on their own home-made systems, which are not nearly as sophisticated, accurate and powerful as western ones.
The Ukrainians for another weak have kept up the attack on Russian oil refining and distribution. Looking at just the attacks we know about over the last two months, its clear that the campaign has been a high priority. Here is a map that is circulating about the different known targets.
And impressively for Ukraine, the pace of these attacks is, if anything, accelerating. This week there were a number of reported new operations, including what the Ukrainian military says is one of the 10 largest facilities in all of Russia.
The attack on Ust-Luga was particularly telling. This is one of the main ports for Russia to ship out its oil to the shadow fleet. For a few days now, reports are that all oil shipments from the port have halted.
Its both an important but also frustrating development. Ukraine clearly has an excellent target set and is going about it. And if oil production and shipping in western Russia could be seriously degraded, this will hit the Russian economy hard. Russian oil revenues were already declining before these attacks happened.
However, it will take much more than one attack each to make this campaign work. See how long it takes the Russians to get Ust-Lugo back and working, and you will see how hard it really is to completely disable a target.
Certainly what is the case is that if Ukraine’s partners pulled out the stops and provided support to this campaign, the Russian ability to make money from oil would not just be damaged for days, it would be months or longer.
In other words, it would help Ukraine win the war.
Ukrainian Collapse Continues (In the Press)
The Ukraine is about to collapse Article of the Week (a new award Im thinking of bestowing) goes to The Economist this week. This is a refreshing change as the Washington Post and the Financial Times have dominated this category for months. The Economist seems to have decided because the Russians have seized the strategically insignificant large village of Velyka Novosilka, much of Ukraine’s defenses are about to fail.
Its such a weird reading, as what we have seen over January is a significant slowing in Russian micro advances. Indeed, according to Deep State, in January Russia took less territory than it has taken in any month since August.
Indeed, its less than a third of the amount Russia took in November.
Now, lets not read much into one month. As Mykola says in the podcast, its been a warm winter in the Donbas, and this has led to more mud than usual which could be hampering movement on both sides.
The thing about this narrative is not just that it is manifestly false—its that it feeds the ignorance of Rubio and others that Ukraine is doomed.
Ukraine is being swamped by the stupidity of the age, and everything that can be done to counter that stupidity must be done. And that starts with ridiculing stupid headlines.
Feb 3, 2025
Ukraine Strikes Slow Russian Oil Production and Military Gains
Evidence is growing that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks are degrading Russia's ability to pursue its attacks on Ukraine while at the same time depleting Russian oil exports.
The combination is seriously undermining Russia's institutional capabilities to project both economic and military power. JL
Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:
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