Ukraine Is Destroying Russia's Doomed, Degraded, De-Mechanized Attacks

It's come to this: the Assault Lada. The Lada being a poorly built Soviet-era civilian auto, derided even for its performance while grocery shopping. 

But now, due to the decimation of Russia's once awe-inspiring armored forces, wasted over three years in hapless attacks against Ukrainian defenses, Ladas and other sub-standard Russian vehicles are being repurposed as un-armored personnel carriers.  Since Russian tanks and other armor were incapable of surviving on Ukrainian battlefields, the fate of these pathetic alternatives is a foregone conclusion. The theory, apparently, is that a soldier with a ride has more chance of success than he does walking, although recent experience, as described in the article below, suggests that may not be a bet worth taking. JL  

David Axe reports in Trench Art:

It’s evident, in the most recent Russian assault on Bahatyr - where regiments and brigades lack the combat power to even cross no-man’s-land and reach Ukrainian positions - that Russian units are badly depleted. On Saturday, Russian troops—from the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade—rode toward the town in 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars. Not a single armored vehicle in the mix. Out of 18 motorcycles, 15 were destroyed. Nine of 10 cars were hit. Forty Russians died.  “We knew they'd be down to civvie vehicles by 2025, but it (the "de-mechanization death spiral") happened earlier than expected.”

The town of Bahatyr is the next stop for Russian forces fighting to advance in southern Donetsk Oblast at the corner of the front line, where the line of contact bends from west-east to south-north and threads through Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk Oblasts.

For the Russians, attacks along this corner are tempting, as an advancing regiment would contend with Ukrainian fire from the north, but not from the opposite direction—as Russia controls the terrain to the south.

But this geographical advantage is worthless if the regiments and brigades lack the combat power to even cross the no-man’s-land and reach Ukrainian positions. And it’s evident, in the contours of the most recent Russian assault on Bahatyr, that the local Russia units are badly depleted.

 

On Saturday, Russian troops—possibly from the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade—rode toward the town in a column of 18 motorcycles and 10 civilian cars. Not a single armored vehicle in the mix. “The Russian invaders were detected in advance, after which the enemy column was hit by fire,” Ukraine’s eastern command reported.

As drones watched (see video above), cluster shells rained down. “Close interaction between the brigades, proper organization of intelligence and clear management of combat operations yielded results—the enemy’s intentions were not realized,” the command boasted.

Out of 18 motorcycles, 15 were destroyed. Nine of 10 cars were hit. Forty Russians died according to the Ukrainian Vuhledar Tactical Group said.

A Russian assault car. Via Special Kherson Cat

De-mechanization death spiral

Having written off 17,000 armored vehicles and other heavy equipment since February 2022—thousands more vehicles than Russian industry can build new or recover from long-term storage—the Russian military is caught in a mechanization death spiral: deploying more civilian vehicles, which get destroyed even faster than the military vehicles do, requiring the deployment of more civilian vehicles.

The failed all-bikes-and-cars assault on Bahatyr is indicative of the wider degradation of the entire Russian armed forces as the Kremlin keeps ordering its forces to attack, attack, attack—despite the staggering losses and improving Ukrainian defenses, anchored by substantial artillery and the world’s most powerful arsenal of attack drones.

Even Russia’s once-elite 76th Guards Air Assault Division is equipping assault troops with electric scooters.

The pace of the de-mechanization has surprised some observers. “We knew they'd be down to civvie vehicles by 2025, but it's still earlier than expected,” Ukraine Control Map noted.