As Russian Ally Iran "Pummeled," Putin's Ukraine War Means He Can't Offend Trump

Awkward! Iran is learning the hard way about the limits of Russian 'friendship,' while Russia is growing increasingly nervous as some of its billions of investments in Iran literally go up in smoke. 

The harsh reality for Putin is that he cannot afford to alienate Donald Trump, who is clearly reveling in the attention he is getting from the spectacular if inconclusive bombing of Iranian nuclear sites he ordered. That means Putin cannot overtly aid Iran militarily even if he wanted to do so - or could - which is doubtful given the poor performance of his military in Ukraine and his desperate need for weapons there. But neither can Putin afford to blow off the Iranians who are providing crucial weaponry and other assistance against Ukraine. So the result will be some bellicose rhetoric, expressions of sympathy and promises to...study what can be done. Behind the scenes, China is probably also pressuring both Iran and Russia to cool things down so as not to further hamper the global economy. JL

Holly Ellyatt  reports in CNBC:

As attacks on Iranian nuclear sites left the Islamic Republic scrambling for support, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Moscow Monday for “serious consultations” with Vladimir Putin over how to answer the assaults. Iran has helped Russia throughout the war in Ukraine, but there might be very little Moscow can or will to do to reciprocate. Putin needs his weapons for Ukraine and “If Putin were to annoy Trump over Iran, Trump may change tack and impose new sanctions on Russia." Ruling out giving Iran any military assistance, the issue for Moscow is the threat to all the Iranian ventures it in which it has actively invested. Russia was Iran’s largest foreign investor in 2024.

Russia’s response to Iran’s call for help is being closely watched on Monday after the U.S. bombed Tehran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend — but Moscow might not be quick to offer its ally a hand.

The attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, which President Donald Trump described as an “obliteration,” has left the Islamic Republic scrambling for support from the few friends it has on the global stage. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi headed to Moscow on Monday for “serious consultations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how to answer the assaults.

Iran has helped Russia with military drones throughout the war in Ukraine, but analysts now say there might be very little Moscow can or will to do to reciprocate.

“Iran has massively supported Putin’s war against Ukraine with weapons and technology. On his trip to Moscow, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi may now ask Moscow to return the favour,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said in a note Monday.

“However, Putin has probably little to offer beyond some words. He needs his weapons himself for his continued aggression against Ukraine,” he noted.

Russia also has to tread a fine line between placating and assisting ally Iran and keeping the U.S. sweet, as it looks to re-establish ties with Donald Trump’s Russia-friendlier administration.

“If Putin were to annoy Trump over Iran in any significant way, Trump may change tack and impose new heavy sanctions on Russia and/or weaken Putin’s position in other ways,” Schmieding said.

So far, Moscow’s response to the escalating crisis has been muted, with Russia calling on Iran and Israel to negotiate a peaceful end to the crisis.

Winning some, losing some

The Iranian conflict could strengthen Russia’s position in Ukraine modestly, analysts say, as it distracts Western attention — and potentially resources — away from Ukraine. Higher oil prices could also mean more export revenue for oil producer Russia’s war coffers.

 

At the same time, Russia is watching on as another Middle Eastern ally is weakened, eroding its own foothold in the region in the process. Russia has already seen one valuable alliance crumble recently by way of last year’s ousting of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria putting the future of Moscow’s air and naval bases in the country in doubt.

Russia stands to further lose out on potentially lucrative investments and infrastructure projects, if Iran is severely destabilized. The issue for Moscow is to now gauge how much it has to win or lose by helping or abandoning Iran.

“Moscow itself appears to be undecided what to make of a new war in the Middle East,” Nikita Smagin, an expert on Iranian foreign and domestic policies at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said in analysis.

“On the one hand, Russia has invested heavily in various projects in Iran over the past three years, all of which could now go to waste. At the same time, Moscow hopes to benefit from Middle Eastern instability through rising oil prices and declining interest in Ukraine.”

Ruling out the possibility of Russia giving Iran any military assistance, Smagin said the bigger issue for Moscow is the threat to all the Iranian ventures it has actively invested in recently, including oil and gas projects, infrastructure and transit routes.

“A few days before the start of the Israeli operation, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow said that Russia was the country’s largest foreign investor in 2024. The ambassador did not specify any investment volumes, but Russian investments were estimated at $2.76 billion the previous year. Moscow planned to invest about $8 billion in oil and gas projects alone,” Smagin said.

“Now the future of those projects is in doubt.”