The Significance Of the Trump Narrative Shift On Russia Losing, Ukraine Winning

Putin finally overplayed his hand. While needing to keep up the strong man role for domestic Russian consumption, he seems to have believed that nothing would affect Trump's admiration for him and willingness to support his position. So he has rebuffed numerous US peace feelers, subtly but clearly insulted Trump during the Alaska summit - and then purposely struck civilian targets in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities despite the distaste Trump voiced about that sort of action. 

But as a reflexive watcher of media narratives, Trump evidently began to perceive that in the eyes of the world, Putin was disrespecting him. And as someone who aspires to be seen as the most powerful global leader, such repeat behavior was unacceptable. Yesterday, for the first time, the US president said that Ukraine could win and take back its territories, while NATO countries could should hit Russian drone and jet provocations. Although Moscow feigned indifference, expect a resulting, massive Putin charm offensive to try to rekindle the bromance as the Russian military falters at Pokrovsk, oil exports shrink, the economy teeters and Chinese overlorship becomes more oppressive. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

Yesterday Trump trashed the narrative he has stuck too since January that Ukraine has “no cards”, while Russia is so much stronger than Ukraine.' That argument will be much harder to make—even if Trump changes his tune again. For the first time he said clearly that Ukraine can win the war, can liberate its territory, and Russia is a vastly overrated power; a “paper tiger” with an increasingly weakening economy due to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil production. The intelligence circulating in Washington now seems very different, and supports the idea that while Ukraine is showing the resilience of a country that can win, the idea that Russia is some unstoppable, victorious steamroller lies in ruin.

Three days ago in my weekend update, I wrote that it seemed that the intelligence the White House was receiving about Ukraine and the Russo-Ukraine War, was changing. There was a noticeable change in tone from before

What is interesting, however, is that they (Trump and Kellogg) are moving away from the Russian steamroller, Ukraine has no cards, narrative. It might be a sign that the intelligence that they are getting is rather different than it was earlier.

Well, I can happily confirm that this suspicion was right—on steroids. Yesterday Trump came out and trashed the narrative he has stuck too dogmatically since January. For months we have heard from the president that Ukraine has “no cards”, while Russia is so much greater and stronger than Ukraine'; “ten-times more” in one of his more memorable moments. The rest of the noise machine around Trump amplified his doom. Ukraine had to give up territory, we have been repeatedly told by JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff, as well as Trump himself.

The Russia as dominant power narrative has also been monotonously restated in the press and the analytic community (regular readers of this substack do not need a restating of that). In particular it has been a staple of the populist movement in Europe and the USA. Viktor Orban, Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, amongst others, all have amplified that narrative as loudly as they could.

And this narrative has been a killer for Ukraine—literally. It has been used to justify the ending of US military aid and the slow-walking of any weapons sales. It has been used to pressure the Europeans to accept the US vision of a “peace” deal, and it has been used to browbeat the Ukrainians themselves. It has damaged international support for Ukraine and through that almost certainly increased Ukrainian casualties.

And now that argument will be much harder to make again—even if Trump changes his tune after yesterday’s extraordinary outburst. For the first time he said clearly what has always been the truth. Ukraine can win the war, Ukraine can liberate its territory, and Russia is a vastly overrated power; a “paper tiger” with an increasingly weakening economy due to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil production. Here is the tweet in which be “broke cover”, as it were.

And there it is—Trump, for once, spoke the truth. The two things that stand out are that Trump has said Ukraine can liberate all its territory, including Crimea, and that it can do it with just European support (hint—Trump still will not aid Ukraine).

And what is more, the Ukrainians also believe that Trump is getting very different and more accurate intelligence about the state of war—some of it from Ukraine. In a press conference given yesterday after Trump’s outburst, Zelensky tried to explain what was happening.

“One by one, he understood that Putin was just sharing some information which is far away from [the] real situation on the battlefield.

Now he trusts [me] much more bigger because of the information that my intelligence and my military guys, military cabinet, shares with partners.”

Now, Trump can change his tone tomorrow. Heck, he might walk back these comments today, and ask for two weeks to think things through. Putin might finally show Trump the love he craves from the Russian dictator, and then Trump could become an even stronger backer of Russia than he has been. I mean for the last 9 months he has basically screwed Ukraine and helped Russia as much as he politically could—and that is his base position.

Remember, what he announced yesterday was no more US money for Ukraine, no more weapons, nothing in terms of concrete aid. And it should be noted that Secretary of State Rubio did not adopt a new tone, saying yesterday that the war cannot end “militarily” and Ukraine will have to negotiate.

However even if Trump pivots, he has destroyed the narrative that Ukraine cannot win and Russia is a military steamroller. That narrative will be harder to restore now. And what is more, the intelligence that is circulating in Washington now seems to be very different, and supports the idea that Russia is not doing so well while Ukraine is showing the resilience of a country that can win.

And that is the real importance of yesterday. Say it loud and proud. Ukraine can win—and can win if European states step up and help as they should. After three and a half years of war and lies, the idea that Russia is some unstoppable, victorious steamroller lies in ruin.

That alone is a very good thing.