Ukraine Has Turned Pokrovsk Into A Cauldron For Trapped Russians And Relief Force

Three weeks ago, there was concern at the unexpected Russian infiltration near Dobropillya north of Pokrovsk. But Ukraine's ability to adapt and react quickly has now turned it into a trap for Russian units that advanced too far and fast without adequate support, thinking they had an opening. 

And it has now forced the Russians, allegedly gathering another supposedly huge force for a 'final, climactic battle' to divert some of those troops in an attempt to relieve their trapped comrades. A movement for which the Ukrainians not only appear prepared but eagerly anticipating, as it brings more Russians into their kill zone while also diverting units the Kremlin were planning to use elsewhere. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine has turned what could have been a catastrophe into a horrendous killing field and a trap for the invaders. “There is a narrow corridor, six kilometers wide, under fire control of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians have kept two pockets of Russians alive, isolated, and surrounded without access to supplies. Ukraine now has the opportunity to cut off or significantly push back the Northern pincer of the three pronged Russian effort to surround Pokrovsk.  By forcing the Russians to divert significant resources into an event which they had not expected messes up their plans for the expected “final decisive blow” to capture Pokrovsk. Ukraine has created the textbook “cauldron”. 

“It is well that war is so terrible, otherwise we should grow too fond of it”

The words of Confederate general Robert E. Lee after observing the awful carnage of the Battle of Fredericksburg, Virginia on the Rappahannock River in December 1862. Union Major General Ambrose Burnside(he of the profuse side burns facial hair style) sent his forces against the entrenched Confederates due to a combination of political pressure, a flawed battle plan, and a series of delays that allowed his opponents to establish an impregnable defensive position. 

History seems to be doing another one of its repetition things ... again.  This time on the Siverskyi Donets River on the wind swept steppe lands of Eastern Ukraine. Only a scant three weeks ago the world was aghast at how the Russians had managed to pierce the Ukrainian defensive lines to a depth estimated at13km or more.  The two-pronged advance in the shape of a weird wish bone(I charitably called it a “tuning fork”) towards the coal mining town of Dobropillya was indeed quite disconcerting and required an immediate response from the Ukrainian army.  Boy, did they respond !! Whether planned or just one of those fortuitous things that happen in war, the menacing threat near the town whose name could be translated roughly to mean “good/safe journey” has turned out to be just that for the defending Ukrainians and not so much for the Russian aggressors.  The Ukrainians have managed to turn what could have been a catastrophe into a horrendous killing field and a trap for the invaders. They can come in but they can’t leave.  That was true for a few days earlier on in the salient as the Russians could still try to send in some rescuers. But now even that seems impossible as the Ukrainians are now sweeping off any and everything that comes close to that cauldron.  Ukraine has created the textbook “cauldron”. 

Russians pulling reinforcements to Pokrovsk sector, Dobropillia salient

“There is a narrow corridor there, about six kilometers wide. It is under complete fire control of Ukrainian forces. Artillery, mortars, ATGMs, bombers are working there. One of the brigades reported they had captured a prisoner. To the north, there are only dirt roads. Prisoners say they call them ‘roads of death’ – they can be killed along the way, or left dead under Dobropillia. It’s a one-way road,”

www.ukrinform.net/...

As the above caption map shows, after cutting off the advance elements and the follow on contingent of the Russian assault, the Ukrainians have kept two pockets of the invaders alive, isolated, and surrounded without access to any supplies. It is a thing of military beauty such as would elicit the kind of comment General Lee made in December 1862 during the American Civil War.  The trapped Russians are a sizable enough force that the Russians cannot ignore or just leave them to their fate.  At a minimum imagine the public humiliation the once proud “world’s number two army” would face if such a force was publicly made to walk “under the yoke” on live TV in ignominious defeat and surrender, as was done in ancient times.  And what does it say about the much vaunted Summer 2025 and the projected Winter Russian offensives?  Politically what does it do to Vladimir Putin and his minions in the Kremlin?  Russia enjoyed such a propaganda coup in May 2022 when President Zelenskyy ordered the Azovstal defenders to surrender.  Now the same Azovstal commanders, ransomed from Russian captivity, including Denys “Redis” Prokopenko and Sviatoslav "Kalyna" Palamar, have heroically returned to take the lead in the battle for Dobropilliya. 

 

Imagine therefore, the political pressure from the Kremlin on generals Gerasimov, Mordvichev and the rest of the Russian military top brass. Old Ambrose Burnside felt it from Washington in 1862 and so will the Russian brass in 2025.  Here’s hoping they suffer the same type of catastrophic defeat that Burnside endured at Fredericksburg.

Will the Ukrainians now turn the table on the Russians in the Fall of 2025?  To prevent this from happening the Russians are now forced to seemingly throw military sense and caution to the wind in order to try and rescue their trapped soldiers … throwing the lives of hundreds more additional soldiers and precious amounts of their fast dwindling stock of armor into the maw of the Ukrainian trap at Dobropilliya:

 

Another look at the above caption map points to a couple of other important points. By forcing the Russians to divert a significant amount of effort and resources into an event which they had not expected or planned for messes up their plans for the expected “final decisive blow” to capture Pokrovsk.  And WINTER is coming.  Unless the Russians capture Pokrovsk or any of the “Fortress Belt” cities, their once again “100,000” accumulation of forces will be caught out in the flat, treeless, cold, frozen Eastern Ukraine farm lands.  And with the new increasingly lethal Ukraine-made drones and missiles, any sizable accumulation of Russian assault forces can be easily seen and destroyed before it even gets to the jump off point.  This is already happening according to the above embedded video.

 

And the Russians themselves have ensured that there are no places to hide or shelter in as they have leveled every hamlet close to Pokrovsk in their earlier march from Avdiivka. They leveled anything that could serve as shelter for the then retreating Ukrainians.  All the Russians will have now are leafless tree lines which Ukrainian surveillance drones can patrol 24/7.  Also Ukraine now has the opportunity to cut off or significantly push back the Northern pincer of the three pronged Russian effort to surround Pokrovsk … an effort that has been in the making since the mid-February 2024 fall of Avdiivka. 

Molon Labe(come and get them), as the ancient Spartans would say.  If the Russians want Pokrovsk, they will have to come for it ... head-on.  It is something the Russians have assiduously tried to avoid, knowing the horrendous cost entailed in prolonged urban warfare. The Ukrainians are ready.  All the recent Russian “feints” and “demonstrations” in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Kherson have not fooled the Ukrainians.  They know where the main event is going to be … the Battle for Pokrovsk and the rest of Donetsk oblast.  And a look at the latest map showing the Ukrainian Order of Battle indicates that they have so aligned their forces.  The 7th Rapid Response Corps is there along with 10 others. Even the 11th Corps which is the receiving formation for Ukrainian reserves has been pulled into the Pokrovsky theater in anticipation.